Hear the Hurd

AL's 2021 College Football Top 10 Rankings, Week 15 - Final Rankings

Well THAT didn't go as planned. The less said about that GA game the better, but I suppose at least I should say a few words. While I would have preferred to see Kirby Smart make a change at QB in the second half, I'm not certain that Stetson Bennett cost us the game. The loss was entirely on what had been the best defense in the country suddenly not showing up. When you give an all world QB like Young what seemed minutes in the pocket, he's going to find his receivers and make a play. It is disappointing, to say the least, but the good part is that everything remains in front of the Dawgs. A loss in the SEC championship game was not going to keep them out of the playoffs. However, we are likely to face Alabama again. Maybe. First, let's look at my final oh so very scientific and accurate rankings:

1. Alabama (12-1)
2. Michigan (12-1)
3. Georgia (12-1)
4. Cincinnati (13-0)
5. Notre Dame (11-1)
6. Baylor (11-2)
7. Ole Miss (10-2)
8. Ohio State (10-2)
9. Utah (10-3)
10. Oklahoma State (11-2)

Bama beating the number one team automatically puts them now at #1. An argument could be made that Georgia shouldn't fall any further than 2 but I'll give Michigan credit for winning their conference. As I'm sure you've read or consider it, #2 and #3 don't really matter at this stage. I do not think Georgia can fall any further than 3 which leaves unbeaten Cincinnati in the 4th position. There is your playoff field.

The rest of the rankings are just window dressing. I'll give Notre Dame credit for their schedule and certainly Baylor credit for winning the Big 12. Of the rest, I'll merely say that this is how I see it. You could include BYU (10-2) or ACC winner Pittsburgh (11-2) in there if you wanted. It doesn't really matter because now we are focused on those top four. Shoot, I imagine some might place Ohio State higher. It may possibly still be one of the top four teams in the country. But they won't be there when the official rankings come out.

So now it will be:

#1 Alabama vs. #4 Cincinnati

#2 Michigan vs. #3 Georgia

I see no scenario in which Cincy is bumped up to #2. Especially not after Michigan was already ranked 2 and then just won their conference against a good Iowa team (even if they did not look it last night.) It is possible that Cincy could jump to #3, but I don't see how. First of all (and while the committee is not supposed to do such) that would set up an immediate rematch between Bama and Georgia. Second, just look at the schedules. All props to Cincinnati going undefeated, but their schedule outside of Notre Dame and Houston at the end was not what was played by the others. On the losses, Georgia actually has the best record. Bama lost to a good Texas A&M team and Michigan lost to a good Michigan State team. Georgia just lost to one of the top four teams in the country.

On the wins, Alabama has the best record (regardless of how close some might have been.) They have five wins against then ranked teams. Georgia has four. And while Michigan only has two, they came at just the right time leading to their Big 10 conference title. They also beat Washington, Wisconsin and Penn State who were all considered good at the time. Cincy still just has only the two wins against Notre Dame and Houston. That is not to knock them in any way, it is just a fact.

So what happens now?

Since my predictions have been so very accurate thus far (thank you Ohio State and Oklahoma State for keeping me perfect...Oy!), I will venture out there once again. Bama beats Cincy and Georgia beats Michigan setting up the rematch that no one outside of the state of Alabama wants. And on that score, the Bama luck (or whatever one wants to call it) has to run out at some point. Kirby's Dawgs have faced Alabama four times and lost each and every time. Most notably in the National Championship game in 2018 for the 2017 season. I thought for sure that would have ended yesterday, but instead we'll have to wait a month. It ends in January. Until then...that is all.

AL's 2021 College Football Top 10 Rankings, Week 14 - Championship Week

Well here we are. The end of the regular season with only the championship games left to be decided. And then...and then...we'll have our top four and the playoffs. Before I get to my ever so accurate predictions about that, let's look at my current very scientific and correct rankings:

1. Georgia (12-0)
2. Michigan (11-1)
3. Oklahoma State (11-1)
4. Alabama (11-1)
5. Cincinnati (12-0)
6. Notre Dame (11-1)
7. Ole Miss (10-2)
8. Baylor (10-2)
9. Iowa (10-2)
10. Oregon (10-2)

After the full regular season, my Dawgs came out of it unscathed leaving only the SEC championship to be played. Of course, it has to be against Bama. The road always goes through Tuscaloosa in the SEC so why not? If you want to be the best, you have the beat the best. The history of these games looks bad for Georgia (see 2008, 2012, 2015, 2017, 2018 and 2020.) Yet this year may be different. The Dawgs have allowed the least points to opposing teams by a long shot with only 83 allowed. The second closest is...what? Clemson (9-3) with 180 allowed. Yes, that team Georgia bested in the very first game of the season. Sure, Bama has an awesome offense, but they don't have the same caliber defense (see Bama/FLA, Bama/A&M, Bama/Arkansas and this past weekend's Iron Bowl at Auburn.) I'm not saying it's a done thing already. Nothing ever is against a Nick Saban coached team. But our odds are better than they have been in a long time.

Then we move to #2. I was tempted to place Oklahoma State here, but Michigan finally got over that hump and beat Ohio State (now 10-2) and since I had them ranked so high (and Ohio State remains a great team) I have to put Michigan here. Followed closely by Oklahoma State. These two are really 2a and 2b. All either team needs to do now is finish the drill. Michigan is set to face Iowa in the Big 10 championship and Oklahoma State will face a rematch with Baylor in the Big 12 championship. If both win those games, they are in the playoffs. I have more faith in Michigan, but OK State is every bit as good.

For #4, Cincy gets bumped again. Say what you will about the close games Bama has played, but I believe they are better than Cincinnati. And if Bama wins the SEC championship game, they are going to the playoffs. And so is Georgia. Cincinnati's path needs Bama, and one of Michigan and OK State to lose. Yet Cincy remains undefeated and if they beat Houston (11-1) in the AAC championship they will have a very good case. I'll keep them at #5. Notre Dame does remain in this, but as usual this year, they need Cincy to lose that game (as well as the same losses as above) for their shot to get in.

For the rest of the top 10, we're just looking at the best of the two loss teams. I have them ordered this way, but you could make a perfectly fine case for a different order. I still think certain things must be considered - Oregon has to be above Ohio State - Baylor has to above Oklahoma - Iowa has 3 wins over then ranked teams - and Ole Miss only has losses against ranked Bama and then ranked Auburn while they beat ranked A&M and better than their records Mississippi State and Tennessee. I suppose one could include Houston in this mix, but the schedule is still the schedule. I'm not interested in including either of the ACC teams here though Pittsburgh (10-2) vs. Wake Forest (10-2) will be an interesting championship game for that conference. And Utah (9-3) is looking good here and has a chance to beat Oregon twice in two weeks in the Pac 12 championship.

These are all also-rans, however. Going by history, no two loss team has ever made the four team playoff. That is always subject to change (especially given the Bama rule of "because it's Alabama") but for our sake here I'll stick to that first rule. A 2 loss Big 12 champ Baylor is not going to the playoffs if Cincy remains undefeated. A 2 loss Big 10 champ Iowa will not either under the same circumstance. Especially with Notre Dame sitting there with only 1 loss. And frankly, I do not see both Michigan and Oklahoma State losing their games. So it comes down to this for my prognostications (which have been so perfect...thanks for the loss to Michigan, Ohio State):

#1 Georgia vs. #4 Cincinnati

#2 Michigan vs. #3 Oklahoma State

You can flip 2 and 3 if you wish, but that seems the most likely match up at this point. Now, if you want to consider if Bama wins the SEC championship, then it would look like this:

#1 Alabama vs. #4 Oklahoma State

#2 Georgia vs. #3 Michigan

Either way, I am now predicting that the National Championship game will be between Georgia and Oklahoma State. If it turns out to be a rematch between GA/Bama, I may just give up entirely in this endeavor. No one wants that again outside of Tuscaloosa. I'd be perfectly fine with a GA/Michigan game for it all on the line, but I can state right now that Cincy is not ever getting into THAT game. And if somehow Notre Dame crashes this party, they will just lose again like they always do these days when it is all presented to them.

It is interesting to me that all of the oh so smart prognosticators at the start of the season just assumed (and then lamented as they picked them) that the top 4 would be the usual suspects of Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma. Only one of them still has a shot and I'd call Bama's chance at 50/50. To me, this is Georgia's year and has been since the beginning. I hate to tempt fate (especially after already getting one championship from the Braves) but this team is just that good. That complete. I see it in front of me and believe I can have that. More than that, they see it in front of them and believe they can have it. But first, we must continue to play the game on the field. I'm ready. That is all.

2022 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Since I am back to blogging, I might as well resurrect my annual Baseball Hall of Fame ballot. Of course I don't have a vote, but if I did it might look a little something like this. For reference, here is the list of players eligible per Baseball Reference. Looking at it, and trying to weed it down to 10 (per the actual voting rules) it appears this year we are back to a backlog and bloated list. Below you can see how bloated and backlogged. Most of that is due to the voters for this august group trying to retro fit their own writing from the time, but we get ahead of ourselves. The first three names, and my votes, would go to:

Curt Schilling

Barry Bonds

Roger Clemens

I list them in that order because that is how they found votes last year. To me, it ought to go Bonds, Clemens and then Schilling. They have each been on the ballot for ten years (and now their last year due to the rules these days) and each have their detractors. Bonds and Clemens remain with the taint of PED (regardless of the fact that none of it was proven even if we all know better) and now, apparently, Schilling has to answer for his off the field persona and AFTER his playing career. To me, Bonds was the greatest offensive player I saw in my lifetime. And before he started juicing! I suppose it is a shame that he has that mark on his character, but I maintain till this day that if he had retired before the start of that phase of his career...he was already a Hall of Famer. Already close to an inner circle one as well. Clemens as well. Now I don't want to get into the ins and outs of how much I dislike the man. Yet it has nothing to do with his PED use (again...not proved.) It has to do with a certain circle in hell for someone that played for the Red Sox and then won with the Yankees (see too Hall of Famer Wade Boggs.) These two players were the best of their generation (though I always like to point out that Greg Maddux has one more career win over Clemens - 355 to 354) and that they are not yet in the Hall of Fame makes it a joke.

Of course neither is Pete Rose.

On the Schilling front, I don't give a whit about his politics. That should not enter into the argument for his Hall of Fame playing career. The writers (voters) want to virtue signal, but how do you leave this man out? He was part of 3 different teams that pushed into the World Series. Phillies in 1993, Arizona in 2001 and Boston in 2004. He has the WS co-MVP from Arizona's win and the bloody sock from the Red Sox 2004 historic win to show for it. You talk about a big game pitcher? Jack Morris got into the Hall of Fame for one game, frankly. Schilling has multiple and is a half a run less in ERA for his career. Get off your high horse, voters, and let these men in!

And on the topic of PEDs, I have to now list my fourth vote -

Manny Ramirez

This one was proved. Twice! And yet I still thinks he belongs. A slash line for his career of .312/.411/.585 with over 500 HR and over 1800 RBI. From above, you can see where I'm going with this. I don't care if he juiced. Bud Selig (Hall of Fame Commissioner, by the way) didn't seem to care at the time. So why should we? He was a young stand out star for Cleveland in the 90s and a real star for the Red Sox in the aughts. Not the best defensive player, but he made up for it with his bat. He's never getting in, but I think it's a crime. Shades of Rafael Palmiero who also belongs, but Manny was the better player.

Going further on this subject, two of the first time eligible players also have this taint. Let's list them here:

Alex Rodriguez

David Ortiz

Rodriguez also tested positive for PEDs but Ortiz never did. Yet both belong. I'm no fan of AROD, but much like Clemens I cannot deny his numbers. I do love Ortiz and he was as impactful as Schilling for that 2004 Boston run. Once again, I do not care about the steroid issue. It was what it was and if everyone was doing it (assumption) then it's an equal footing. Just get over it, writers, and stop trying to let everyone know how virtuous you are.

I'll add two more here for this conversation that have some taint of the PEDs which I think is ridiculous. My next two votes would go to:

Jeff Kent

Gary Sheffield

Kent was one of the best 2nd basemen in the league at the time, and certainly an historic one offensively. As for Sheffield, and despite his attitude and many teams, he was an offensive power for every one. Despite him going from the Braves to the Yankees, the man was a 9 time All Star in a 22 year career with MVP votes in 7 of them. I will continue to champion them as long as they are on the ballot.

So now we've reached 8 votes and I only have 2 more. Despite many deserving candidates, and again...backlog once more, I have to give my last 2 votes to:

Andruw Jones

Billy Wagner

It was difficult for me to winnow this down for these last two. We have a plethora of players to reward here. Todd Helton deserves the nod. Another that slashed a 300/400/500 for his career (and despite the Coors field effect.) First year eligible Jimmy Rollins definitely has a case. In another year, he'd get my vote. Ryan Howard had a shot, but then he petered out. So did Tim Lincecum. Frankly, Jake Peavy might have been better. Holdovers Scott Rolen, Andy Pettitte and even Sammy Sosa have a case. But I go with these two.

Jones was possibly the greatest defensive center fielders of all time. My grandfather saw DiMaggio play. He still thought Andruw was better even if he didn't like him "stepping in the bucket" at the plate. Maybe that's why he was 66 HR from the magical 500 number in his career. And Wagner? Hoffman is in, as are other closers by now, and Billy Wagner was a stud! One of the best. When he retired at age 38, he recorded the lowest ERA of his entire career. He went out on top. And taught a whole new generation how to do the job (hello, Craig Kimbrel.) These two are my last two votes since I'm limited to 10.

Vizquel, Teixeira and Hudson also deserve a look, to be sure. Possibly even Morneau. But when I'm limited to 10 votes, I have to choose these 10. At least...hand count...6 players that are accused or assumed that used PEDS. We're still living with it. And the writers (again...the voters who wrote wonderful platitudes about them at the time) would love them to leave the ballot and not have to answer for it anymore. Well, they probably won't have to. Schilling, Bonds, Clemens and Sosa all fall off the ballot after this year. And then they can start worrying about Rodriguez. If he gets more votes than any of those four...well, it just shows how idiotic and absurd they are. Hypocrisy ain't just a river in Egypt.

So what are your votes?

That is all.

AL's 2021 College Football Top 10 Rankings, Week 13

Well that's how you shake things up. Finally Oregon loses a second time and we can do away with the head to head against Ohio State. A great win, to be sure, but now there is only the one. Also, I was completely wrong last week putting Wake Forest (now 9-2) so high. Hey, don't get too cocky...I can be wrong from time to time. Rarely, but I admit it when I am. I thought they had more to them and perhaps underestimated Clemson (now 8-3) after their early season. So we now have some movement in my ever so accurate and scientific top 10:

1. Georgia (11-0)
2. Ohio State (10-1)
3. Alabama (10-1)
4. Cincinnati (11-0)
5. Oklahoma State (10-1)
6. Michigan (10-1)
7. Notre Dame (10-1)
8. Oklahoma (10-1)
9. Ole Miss (9-2)
10. Baylor (9-2)

Of course, the highlight of the day for me was hearing (since it was not televised) big defensive tackle Jordan Davis scoring an offensive touchdown but it was against Charleston Southern. Basically this was a scrimmage against the B squad, but all four QBs got into it and that's no bad thing. As one may imagine, my Dawgs stay #1. And now that we can move Oregon out of the equation, Ohio State can take their rightful place as #2. I'm certain that the CFP committee will try and keep Bama ahead of Ohio State, but I think that's wrong. Especially after yesterday when Alabama struggled to get past a good Arkansas team and Ohio State obliterated a good Michigan State team. That 1, 2, 3 pecking order cannot be more clear.

After a week of dropping Cincy, I put them back to #4 after a solid besting (finally) of SMU (now 8-3) but they should not rest too comfortable because Oklahoma State is a very near competitor and if they beat Oklahoma in Bedlam next week, they will jump them. And Michigan gets this high for now, but they meet Ohio State this coming weekend. As I've mentioned all season, this Big 10 round robin will clear up all things. Notre Dame rounds out this grouping, both because they look stronger week by week and they still only have the one loss to Cincy. Without a Bearcats loss, they cannot get higher than 5.

I'll include Oklahoma for now but they are at the tail end of the one loss teams (sorry Houston...you have a shot in the AAC championship game.) And now for the first time, we see 2 loss teams here. Of those, I like these two more than the others. Sure, Oregon is still out there as is Iowa, Pitt and BYU. But an argument can be made that some 3 loss teams (Wisconsin and Utah among others) might be better. In truth, Mississippi State has a slightly better argument over Ole Miss but they are 7-4. And we'll see that play out this coming weekend in the Egg Bowl. As for Baylor, they have the win over Oklahoma but they also have two losses (one of them to Oklahoma State.)

At this point, the ACC and Pac 12 are out of the playoff picture. Fans of Cincinnati could not be happier after losses by Oregon and Wake Forest. But they still have to look over their shoulder at the Big 12. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma this weekend, then it's a championship game between State and Baylor (assuming Baylor beats Texas Tech this weekend.) If Oklahoma beats State this weekend, then it's a rematch in the championship game. Either way, a one loss Big 12 champ will get the playoff nod over an unbeaten Cincy. That's just a fact. And whether you like it or not, it's fair. Blame the schedule. At this point, Cincinnati has to be the biggest Dawg fan and hope that Bama is bested roundly in the SEC championship game. If it's close, Bama could still get in even with 2 losses. And if they win, Bama and Georgia both go. Cincy also needs Oklahoma to win in Bedlam and then lose in the Big 12 championship game.

All that said, let's see how I do this week predicting the playoffs. As mentioned, I was totally wrong last week. So now I will predict:

#1 Georgia vs. #4 Cincinnati

#2 Ohio State vs. #3 Oklahoma State

Again, things get shaky if Bama beats Georgia in the SEC championship game. At that point, I believe Bama would rocket to #1 and Georgia doesn't fall further than #3. For my Dawgs, that is the worst case scenario because I don't want to face Ohio State in the semi-final. And for Cincy, they are out of it. Oklahoma State would face Alabama in the other semi-final. In either scenario, I still see the National Championship game being Georgia vs. Ohio State. They are clearly the two best teams in the country. Georgia has not lost a game yet (and have not allowed more than 17 points to an opponent.) Ohio State has the early loss to Oregon, but has looked stronger and stronger every week since. Alabama has the blemish of the loss to Texas A&M, but they also had close games against Florida and now Arkansas. And honestly, if I'm picking, what I want to see regardless of what happens between Georgia/Bama would be this:

#1 Georgia vs. #4 Oklahoma State and #2 Ohio State vs. #3 Alabama

To me, those are the four best teams in the country. But there remains that pesky SEC championship game. It's going to be a good one. First we need to go through rivalry weekend and let's see where we are next week. Until then...that is all.

AL's 2021 College Football Top 10 Rankings, Week 12

So my Dawgs keep rolling and got by Tennessee pretty easily after a rough 1st quarter. I'm a little worried about the injuries piling up, but barring a complete collapse of the entire team, we can look forward to a date with Bama on Dec. 4th. Texas A&M still had a shot until they lost to Ole Miss yesterday and I just don't see Alabama losing to both Arkansas and Auburn. Georgia is done with its SEC slate and went undefeated at 8-0 (first time since 1982 I've been told all morning.) As to the rest of my very scientific and in all ways correct top 10:

1. Georgia (10-0)
2. Oregon (9-1)
3. Ohio State (9-1)
4. Alabama (9-1)
5. Cincinnati (10-0)
6. Michigan State (9-1)
7. Michigan (9-1)
8. Notre Dame (9-1)
9. Oklahoma State (9-1)
10. Oklahoma (9-1)

So far my top 10 and that of the Playoff Committee have been the same but in different order. That may change this week. They must have been on to something with Oklahoma and with their loss to Baylor this weekend it is now more in line. I'll be somewhat shocked if Oklahoma falls out of their top 10, but I could see Wake Forest (9-1) or possibly even Baylor (8-2) jumping into that tenth spot. For my part, it caused a little shake up in my top 4. Sitting down this morning, I'm caused to truly consider who might beat who just as much as who has beat who. It has a ripple effect because of what has already happened and what is still on the table.

Given yesterday's results, I'd like to put Ohio State at #2 but I can't because of that ever present game earlier in the season when Oregon beat the Buckeyes in Columbus. Head to head matters regardless of how things might have changed over the season. So this order must be the way it is. Then to the fourth spot, I have finally dropped Cincy down a slot because just considering it I do not think they would beat Alabama. I'm not ready to pop them in the #2 spot even after they destroyed New Mexico State yesterday. I think the committee wants them there so they can keep them in the playoff picture even if they lose the SEC championship.

We then move to the Michigan State/Michigan argument. They got flipped by the CFP rankings but once again - head to head. As stated, all of this will be sorted by the end of the season as we'll see Michigan State at Ohio State this coming weekend and Ohio State/Michigan is still out there to be played. From there we move to ever present Notre Dame. They are helped by their schedule of wins and that their only loss comes to the higher ranked Cincinnati. Finally, we deal with the Big 12 situation. The true ranking comes easily enough - Oklahoma State beat Baylor who beat Oklahoma. But Baylor has that second loss. And more, Bedlam remains out there so we'll see the head to head between these last two rankings (as well as the Big 12 championship which will be a rematch of some form.)

So we are left with a lot of IFs here. If we consider the thus far standing rule that the CFP will not put a 2 loss team in there (always subject to change) then we look at the Big 10 first. One of Ohio State and Michigan State is guaranteed a second loss, as is one of Ohio State and Michigan. The way these teams look right now (and the history between Ohio State and Michigan) I see the Buckeyes back in the playoff. Oregon still has Utah (7-3) and Oregon State (6-4) in front of them, as well as the Pac 12 championship if they win out. If they do all of that, they must be the #2 seed (even if we think the Pac 12 is not as strong as the Big 10 - again...head to head!) More to that, we would see another rematch between Oregon and Ohio State so they can fight it out all over again.

That leaves us with the fourth spot in the playoff. Cincinnati still needs help to get there beyond just winning out. That's just a fact. If either Oklahoma or Oklahoma State wins out the rest of the way, including the Big 12 championship, it will be very hard to leave a 12-1 Power 5 champion out of the playoff. The same goes for Wake Forest should it run the rest of the ACC schedule. Because of the top ranked teams and the competing schedules, I think the pecking order is Big 12 then ACC then Cincy if they remain undefeated (not a sure thing as they are likely to face 9-1 Houston for the AAC championship.) Fair or not (and I think it is fair) that is the order. Notre Dame might beat on the door, but they are not getting in (AND they need Cincy to keep winning.)

One last IF must be considered here. If Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC championship, both go to the playoff. Cincy is out. If it is a close game and Georgia just barely wins, the committee will strongly consider a 2 loss Bama. That's just their history of loving the Tide. Either way, Cincy remains in IF land. So to continue on from last week and make my new prognostications, I now think it will come down to:

#1 Georgia vs #4 Wake Forest

#2 Oregon vs #3 Ohio State

I think this because rematches are very difficult to win a second time and assuming Oklahoma and Oklahoma State play twice, both will have 2 losses. In this scenario, Oklahoma has to beat Oklahoma State in Bedlam and then lose in the Big 12 championship game. If State wins Bedlam, they would play Baylor a second time in the championship and even if Baylor wins that, that 2nd loss hurts them. As to Wake Forest, they play Clemson (7-3) this coming weekend. They are looking better, but Wake Forest looks great right now even after their loss to North Carolina. The win against NC State (7-3) is a good win even if close and a win against likely Pitt (8-2) in the ACC championship will look even better. Who thought the ACC still had a shot here? I certainly did not. That said, I've suggested for some time the National Championship will come down to Georgia and Ohio State. I think that still stands. But of course, we still have to play the games. We'll see. Until next week, that is all.

AL's 2021 College Football Top 10 Rankings, Week 11

It is tempting fate to look too far ahead and certainly to make assumptions, especially when I already have one Championship banked for 2021 (congrats once again Atlanta Braves!) but I'm not the only one that sees one team as national championship quality and several others that week to week look entirely beatable (and some have been.) There will be more shake-up in the top ten this week, but number 1 does not change. Herewith are my ever so scientific and totally correct rankings of the top 10:

1. Georgia (9-0)
2. Oklahoma (9-0)
3. Oregon (8-1)
4. Cincinnati (9-0)
5. Alabama (8-1)
6. Michigan State (8-1)
7. Ohio State (8-1)
8. Michigan (8-1)
9. Notre Dame (8-1)
10. Oklahoma State (8-1)

Once again, Georgia saw little trouble putting away Mizzou and continues to roll. There will be one more true test next weekend at Tennessee (5-4) but they've already clinched the SEC East and await their opponent for Dec. 4th. Oklahoma had a BYE week and were surely shocked to be ranked 8th in the first CFP ranking, but they remain only one of two Power 5 teams undefeated and that counts for something in my book. If they continue to go undefeated they will absolutely be one of the top 4 (likely seeded at 2) and join in the playoffs.

For Oregon, I won't deny that the CFP ranking had some influence in my jumping them to #3, but they also likely have the best win of any team in the country when they beat Ohio State in Columbus. And Cincinnati remains undefeated even after a third struggling win in a row. But a win is a win is a win. They don't have but the one good win at Notre Dame but it certainly counts. It is hard to say if they will eventually break through as a group of 5 school, but they are close and I'll keep them at #4 for now.

After debuting at #2 in the CFP ranking, I was tempted to jump Bama but they needed everything to get past an LSU (now 4-5) playing out the string so I could not move them off this spot in my poll. And playing New Mexico State (1-8) next weekend isn't going to do much for them in my book. However, I won't drop them down either. I did not want to punish Michigan State too much, though it was tempting. 6 through 8 remains part of the Big 10 round robin and it will sort itself out as we move forward. Neither Michigan or State has played Ohio State yet and I could have easily put Ohio State ahead of both. But for now, this is the order to me.

Notre Dame jumps one spot to #9 and is helped by Cincy being ranked high. And finally Oklahoma State gets back into it and has three good wins against ranked at the time teams (Kansas State, Baylor and Texas.) They are still in this if they can get probably not one but two wins against Oklahoma and a one loss Big 12 champ would be difficult to leave out of the playoff. Some few other teams could argue for this 10th place spot - UTSA could complain as they remain undefeated but that schedule, man, it just doesn't hold up - Wake Forest (8-1) fell out after losing to North Carolina (5-4) this weekend but they are still in the running for the ACC title  - Texas A&M (7-2) would seem to be the best of the two loss teams having the win over Bama and pretty much destroying Auburn (6-3) this weekend - Iowa (7-2) also has three strong wins over ranked teams and still has a shot at the Big 10 title. All four look interesting but not as good as Oklahoma State.

Now that we have the first CFP ranking, I'm going to start prognosticating what the playoff might look like when all is said and done. Georgia is in it barring an inexplicable loss prior to the SEC championship game. Bama has to get by Auburn AND win the SEC Championship to go. Georgia can lose it and still be ranked the 4th seed. I believe that Ohio State will get by both Michigan State and Michigan and win the Big 10. It would help them for Oregon to lose one more game (which I think they will do.) And I think Oklahoma runs the table. They seem to have everything clicking all at once and look good for the #2 seed. Notice who is left out? Yep. Cincy. They need a lot of things to go in their favor the rest of the way such is the bias against the Group of 5 conferences (for right or wrong.) They need to go undefeated first and foremost and Notre Dame must keep winning as well. A loss by Oklahoma would help them but I believe they really need another loss by both Oregon AND Ohio State (if they beat both Michigan and State, they are jumping Cincy as they already have in the CFP ranking.) And they need Georgia to run the table because if Bama runs the rest of their table including the SEC championship, the committee is going to include Bama. No doubt about it. Hell, even if they lost to Georgia there is a good possibility they could still get in as a two loss team depending on what happens elsewhere. The committee just loves Bama that much.

All that said, and if things remain chalk, I see the following:

(1) Georgia vs. (4) Ohio State and (2) Oklahoma vs. (3) Oregon.

I think the only team above that Cincy has a shot to beat is Oregon but you have to have Oregon above Ohio State because of the head to head. So even though I have them as my #4, I just don't see them cracking the CFP top 4 without a lot of luck. Check back next week because this IS college football and things are always bound to change. It's why I love it. That is all.

The Atlanta Braves - 2021 World Champions

I'm not sure if you heard, but late last night (or early this morning depending on which way you look at it) the Atlanta Braves...my Atlanta Braves...somehow, someway managed to actually win the World Series! We have to flash back here...go way back. All the way to the 80's when I first watched/saw a Braves baseball game. The years of Bob Horner, Bruce Benedict, Phil Niekro and Dale Murphy. I wasn't much of a fan and they did not give me/us many reasons to be so. But then...BUT THEN...1991 happened. I was a freshman in college and this team went worst to first and I watched my first World Series in earnest.

Many people call that 1991 World Series the very best ever and I've no reason to dispute it. Outside of the result, every pitch...every at bat...every everything including that game 7...was thrilling. It hooked me line and sinker on baseball and these Braves. 1992 was the first year I watched the Braves all year only to be disappointed at the end at the hands of the Blue Jays. 1993 was the first year I followed all of MLB when the Braves won 104 games to the Giants 103 only to lose to the Phillies in the NLCS. Then The Strike in '94. And then the magical 1995! A strike-shortened season that still pit us against one of the greatest line-ups of all time in the '95 Cleveland Indians (yes, that was still their name.) Maddux won the Cy Young that year and gave us a great game 2. But it was Tom Glavine that pitched 8 innings of 1 hit ball and that 1 home run by David Justice brought it all home!

I was 22 years old at the time. Still in college. I celebrated with my friends at a bar in Athens and none of us could believe it. Atlanta finally had a championship. For the Braves, it was just their 3rd. One each in every town they have played - 1914 in Boston, 1957 in Milwaukee and now 1995 in Atlanta. It seemed like we were finally going to roll and it would last. But then 1996 and the Yankees. The evil, foul Yankees! Leyritz in '96 and then the sweep in 1999. Plenty more division titles (14 years in total and a record) but we would never again reach that peak...that mountaintop.

Glavine would move on to the Mets before coming back for one last ride. Maddux would go back to the Cubs. Smoltz would go to Boston. Chipper Jones would eventually retire as the baby Braves were coming up. Great teams and winning teams, but never enough to achieve the ultimate goal. Francouer would fail out and McCann would even move on to the hated Yankees! But then...but THEN...in 2007 the Braves drafted a young 17 year old named Frederick Charles Freeman. He would debut with the major league team three years later in 2010 while still managed by the great Bobby Cox. That year we would win 91 games but lose to the Giants in the NLDS. That would be Bobby's last season, but we had what seemed a core and returned to the playoffs in 2012 as the Wild Card. Lost. 2013 we won the division but lost again in the NLDS to the Dodgers.

We went from a 96 game winning season to four years of losing records. The Great Rebuild. Fredi Gonzalez would be fired and in came long timer Brian Snitker. GMs would trade players, sign new players and get fired (or banned.) All the while, young Freddie Freeman continued to play and well. Early on, he and Jason Heyward were offered long time contracts. Heyward said no but Freddie said yes. And when the rebuild started, they came to him and asked his opinion. He said he was willing to wait, willing to watch, and willing to grow with the team.

In 2018, the wait was finally over. We vaulted from a 72-90 record to a 90-72 record and shocked all of baseball. Once again we would lose in the NLDS to the Dodgers but it seemed as if we'd arrived. In 2019 we won 7 more games and the division again until losing to the Cardinals in that year's NLDS. 2020 was...2020. But even under COVID, we would win the division a 3rd time in a row and take the Dodgers to a 7th game. But again, we lost. Yet that year began with Freddie himself getting the virus before going on to win the shortened season's MVP. So we, all of us, began this year of 2021 thinking it was finally our time. This would be our year.

And then the Braves went four months without a winning record. The division lead would switch over throughout the season with the Mets (the stinking Mets) leading much of that time. Then the Phillies (the filthy Phils) tried to take over. But then on August 8th, after a win over the Washington Nationals, we broke through and got over .500 ball. It was win and then loss, win and another loss. Back and forth. We'd already lost Mike Soroka early in the season when we depended on him as the supposed ace of the pitching staff. Our all world player (and arguably the best player in the game) Ronald Acuna, Jr. went down for the rest of the season a month earlier. GM Alex Anthopolous had a great decision to make. Buy or sell. We might lose Freddie in the offseason as a free agent and he would certainly bring back a huge haul. So would many others. But instead, he rolled up his sleeves and pulled off some huge trades. First Joc Pederson. Then Duvall (which he should have already signed after the last season and had beat us once or twice already by himself), Rosario and Soler. He gave up nothing in doing so. And we started winning.

He was in it to win it (a cliched phrase but true nonetheless) and while some Braves fans were skeptical, many others saw potential. Down the stretch of the season it was a near run thing. The Phillies put up a fight (and may end up with this year's MVP in Bryce Harper) but failed in the end. We won the division with only 88 wins. Every single media outlet suggested we were lucky to be there and would not go far. The Milwaukee pitching staff would be too much for us (especially with potential Cy Young winner Corbin Burnes) but a home run by Freddie off of all world closer Josh Hader in game 4 put paid to that. Then everyday Eddie Rosario took over in the NLCS against the hated Dodgers. Once again we got up 3 games to 1 and everyone thought...here we go again. Atlanta teams just lose the big games. 28-3 with the Falcons. How many series with the Braves. Bulldogs up on Bama twice in the last five years only to lose it at the end (most especially in 2017.) We weren't going to do it.

Game 6 saw Rosario definitely earn his NLCS MVP honors with a 3 run shot and the true MVPs were the bullpen. Jackson (who had seen some trouble), Minter, Matzek and Smith (who every Braves fan hated near the end of the year for giving up too many homers.) Somehow we had bested the hated Dodgers! No one gave us a shot, but here we were...in the World Series!!! Against the cheating Astros who had just put a beating on the Boston Red Sox. Surely we would fail against that vaunted line-up!

None of us knew it at the time, but the first at bat told the tale of the series. Jorge Soler (mid-season trade pick up, recall) took game 1 started Framber Valdez deep in Houston. We would go on to win that game but lose starter Charlie Morton after a shot off the leg by Gurriel. He still got batters out on a broken leg but he'd be gone for the rest of the Series. Our advantage was gone. And then we would lose game 2 behind our best starter Max Fried. His second poor game in a row after a lights out two months. So back to Atlanta with the Series tied.

We needed to win 2 out of 3 and somehow did so. Ian Anderson pitched the game of his life with 5 no hit innings in the middle of what seemed a snow storm and then the first of two bullpen games. We split those. But after game 4, we were once again at the 3-1 advantage. And once again Atlanta fans freaked out. We've seen this movie before. We know to expect the worst because it always happens. And especially after game 5, that narrative maintained. A handy victory by Houston (and after an Atlanta grand slam by Duvall in the 1st.) 3-2 and back to Houston. We had to wait a day to live with our guts and anxieties. Our worries and assumptions.

Enter once more one Max Fried. He of two poor starts of late. His stuff still wasn't sharp but he got through the first with little damage. And then nearly exited the game after getting his foot stomped on a weird play at 1st base. Yet he would trudge back to the mound for six full innings. Gutting it out and giving up nothing, these were six innings without a run scoring. Meanwhile, we got hits. None more than a mammoth home run shot by Soler once again. I'm still not sure that ball has landed. It was his third of the Series. Swanson (who'd seen some odd defensive errors in the Series) added on. So did none other than Frederick Charles Freeman. Again.

I must admit that I am a superstitious man when it comes to sports. My dog Max has been forced to endure much during this season and certainly during the playoffs. For this game, he was dressed in a Ronald Acuna, Jr. jersey the entire time and found his spot on the couch next to me once again. Hey...it worked before! But even in the 6th...the 7th...the 8th and 9th inning...we were up by 6 and then 7...but still I would not let him change. I would not let him get down. Don't change what works. And then Will Smith came in to close out a game that was not a save situation normally, but was for an entire season on the line.

I barely recall anything about that last inning. I remember thinking it could still all be lost. It's happened before (again...Leyritz or 28-3.) I remember thinking that Max could finally go to bed after days of very late nights. I remember thinking it might be the last time we see Freddie Freeman in a Braves uniform, though I don't think so because he pretty much said it himself - he doesn't want to play anywhere else. I remember that I considered that it had been 26 years since the last time I saw something like this. A championship. For one of my teams! And most of all, I remember thinking of my best friend Keith Konior who passed away in January and saw none of this season. He would have loved it...I think...and sadly missed it.

We won!!! We fucking won!!! Braves win!!! Braves fucking win!!!

A long journey. For myself. For Atlanta fans. For Brian Snitker. For Freddie Freeman. Even for Keith even if he was not around to see it. I'm honestly still numb. It really hasn't hit. A team I root for won a championship. That just doesn't happen. But it did. Last night. And I could not be happier. Braves win! And that is all!

AL's 2021 College Football Top 10 Rankings, Week 10

Big sports weekend here in Georgia and for the two I follow, it was a great weekend (outside of Game 5 of the World Series.) For my Dawgs, they did not seem to miss a beat against Florida and nearly shut them out. Once again, they scored over 30 points and allowed 13 or less. For that reason, clearly they remain tops in my ever so scientific and heavily researched top 10:

1. Georgia (8-0)
2. Michigan State (8-0)
3. Oklahoma (9-0)
4. Cincinnati (8-0)
5. Alabama (7-1)
6. Oregon (7-1)
7. Ohio State (7-1)
8. Wake Forest (8-0)
9. Michigan (7-1)
10. Notre Dame (7-1)

After Georgia, I had to go with Michigan State. I had Michigan high this past week and State beat them pretty clearly (the final score looks closer than the actual  game.) The Big 10 is finally getting into the thick of their schedule so things are going to quickly change. I left Oklahoma and Cincy where they were (for now.) I was tempted to jump Bama over Cincy but they had a BYE week and the polls still have the Bearcats high. I suspect that will not be the case when the Playoff rankings come out on Tuesday.

Following the Tide there remains the Oregon/Ohio state conundrum. While I (and many others) think Ohio State is the better team, the fact is still there...Oregon beat Ohio State on the road. That game still happened and must be counted. Until or unless Oregon loses another game, they have to be ranked ahead of Ohio State. SMU went down this weekend so they fell out, but Wake Forest keeps winning and has a real shot of making the playoffs as it stands right now. I was ahead of the major polls by placing them in the top 10 last week and they have now caught up with me. The ACC may still have a shot this year.

I didn't want to drop Michigan down too far because it was not a blow out to State (and I have them at 2 now) so they remain in the top 10. Let's see if that stays that way after they play Ohio State in a few weeks. And finally, I had to put Notre Dame in as 10. I wanted to put Baylor (7-1) there but they have the same issue as Oregon/Ohio State. As long as Baylor holds the same record as Oklahoma State (7-1), Baylor has to come in second because they lost to Oklahoma State. Sure, UTSA is still out there at 8-0 but they don't belong here. And while Texas A&M (6-2) and Auburn (6-2) are building strong resumes and still have an outside shot at the playoffs, it is a stretch with their two losses. Thus I had to go with Notre Dame loathe as I am to include them (yes, it's personal.)

The slate of games for this coming weekend is a bit of a fall off after the sportgasm we just saw, but there is Bama vs. LSU (4-4), Wake Forest at North Carolina (4-4), and Baylor at TCU (3-5) as well as a showdown between the aforementioned Texas A&M vs. Auburn. My Dawgs get Missouri (4-4) at home and wait for their final test of the regular season against Tennessee (4-4) in a couple of weeks. And as mentioned, we'll get that first Playoff ranking this week so we'll really see what the true pecking order is and what each team needs to do to be one of those 4 teams. And while I wait, I get Game 6 (and hopefully final game) of the World Series also on Tuesday. So let's Go Braves! That is all.

The Worst No Hitter I Ever Saw

Reflections of a night on the morning after. The rain was neither a deluge nor a drizzle. Yet it was steady and constant nearly the entire evening and the chill in the air was evident with every breath seen by the players. To be sure, both teams had to deal with the environmental conditions and most certainly both starting pitchers were able to withstand what might have buckled another. As it did for nearly every position player at the plate. On one side, you had young Ian Anderson (our very own Jethro Tull who somehow proved that he was Thick As a Brick.) He's had a nearly flawless postseason record in his brief career and this team needed it after losing the tested ace in Charlie Morton to a broken fibula in game one (and pitching on it even after the fracture) and seeing the 1A ace in Max Fried see another game get away from him early (even though he battled it out.) On the other side was baby rocking Luis Garcia who was equally as tender footed as a major league pitcher and had seen one good game and one poor for the previous round of the playoffs. Who would best the other on this nasty, nasty night?

I don't know about you, but I get very superstitious about the first pitch of any game in MLB. Anderson's first pitch was called a ball down and away and for one of the few times this evening, the umpire was correct. And so it would go for a good portion of the five innings that followed. But we'll get to that below. For first, we must look at the opposing pitcher. For 3 and 2/3 innings, Garcia threw 72 pitches, only 41 called strikes. 16 of those were swinging strikes and many of those were outside of the actual strike zone. No thanks to umpire Tom Hallion for his inconsistent strike zone that might have caused Braves hitters to swing at things they might not otherwise, but this is and has been an aggressive team (sometimes too aggressive) and so we were in need of a great performance by our starter. One run would score in the 3rd inning which would chase Garcia, but not before 2 pitches and 2 outs in the 4th.

So Ian Anderson would trot out to the mound for five innings and throw no hit ball...somehow. 76 pitches offered. Only 39 of those were called strikes. In no way could one call this a dominating performance. It was smoke and mirrors and rain (perhaps) to create what Houston Manager Dusty Baker called "effectively wild." Your major sports writers were astounded (and not too many fans) when Anderson was pulled after the fifth, but the tale of the tape says why. The number of full counts, the number of first (and second) pitch balls to batters. The traffic on the base paths even without the benefit of a hit. There would be key pitches, to be sure. These would extend the no hitter. But it was not pretty. As a fan and viewer, every pitch seemed as if that would be the one to break out and yet...it did not happen. Our young Jethro Tull would sneak through (and get the all important win) in a game that was a must win.

No small part of that was the bullpen performance that followed. Minter, Jackson, Matzek and Smith would follow with 2 hit ball for the final 4 innings and the Braves would tack on another score in the 8th with a Travis D'Arnaud home run. In the end, the shutout was preserved and the win gained to bring the Braves 2 games up to 1 for Houston. So it really wasn't a no hitter. Nor should it have been. Yet what it was? A gutsy and nail-biting performance most needed at this moment in the Series. On a night that was ugly in weather, when Braves hitters would swing wildly and at unnecessary moments, when the umpiring crew (most especially behind the plate) would give no quarter to our staff and when so many in the national media wanted to make a story out of nothing (once again) as the games moved to Atlanta, we got the performance required no matter how unlikely it was. It was not a no hitter but it was for 5 innings and it was the worst (best?) no hitter I ever saw. Now bring on game 4!

That is all.

AL's 2021 College Football Top 10 Rankings, Week 9

I'm a bit late with my latest oh so scientific and accurate top 10 rankings due to the elation of the Braves going to the World Series. Saturday was a special day and had nothing whatsoever to do with college football. To quote the great Skip Carey, "Braves win! Braves win! Braves win!" Further to that, this coming Saturday looks to also be a special day, especially amongst Atlanta sports fans. If I'm getting this correctly, all four professional sports teams will be playing as well as Georgia and Georgia Tech. We (here at least) can hope for wins! Yet we are still in the midst of the college football season (about the halfway point right about now) and so let us get to it. These are my latest rankings:

1. Georgia (7-0)
2. Michigan (7-0)
3. Oklahoma (8-0)
4. Cincinnati (7-0)
5. Michigan State (7-0)
6. Alabama (7-1)
7. Oregon (6-1)
8. Ohio State (6-1)
9. SMU (7-0)
10. Wake Forest (7-0)

There are a number of one loss teams that I want to include here (and we'll look at them below) but for now I'm still giving credence to unbeaten teams. The top of which remains my Dawgs. Hope upon hope, they will remain so after facing Florida this coming weekend. I allowed Michigan to jump Oklahoma this week because I was not impressed with the Sooners first half against Iowa State. That said, their second half put the pedal to the medal. Michigan will get their own test this coming weekend against Michigan State, here ranked 5th. One of them will remain unbeaten. And I'm still being kind to Cincinnati. But they remain high in the actual polls (and who knows where they will be ranked when the playoff committee gives us their view in a week.)

For 6 through 8, it has to be this order. Bama remains Bama even with their one loss. Most polls have them in the top 5. And you still cannot rank Ohio State ahead of Oregon due to their head to head match-up. Oregon beat Ohio State...on the road! I do believe that Ohio State is the better team, but they were not on that day. As for SMU and Wake Forest...I am again being kind but they remain undefeated and 7-0 is 7-0. I think SMU beats Wake Forest should they meet up, so I put them first, but who knows? They both finally meet the beef of their schedule coming up so we shall see.

As for those I wanted to rank, they are all 6-1. Baylor, Ole Miss, Kentucky, Pitt, Iowa, Notre Dame and Oklahoma State (even after their loss this weekend.) Of these, I think Notre Dame and Baylor have the best chance to crack the top 10 given what they do going down the pike. Pittsburgh still has a shot to knock off Wake Forest and Ole Miss still has enough in front of them to make a statement. It is also possible (somehow) for Kentucky to make a statement but it will take some help.

All in all, this weekend looks like a corker. You've got Georgia/Florida, Michigan/Michigan State, Ohio State/Penn State, Baylor/Texas and Ole Miss/Auburn. Not to mention game 4 of the World Series on Saturday! I'm already thinking of my sportsgasm menu. What is yours? That is all.