Well that's how you shake things up. Finally Oregon loses a second time and we can do away with the head to head against Ohio State. A great win, to be sure, but now there is only the one. Also, I was completely wrong last week putting Wake Forest (now 9-2) so high. Hey, don't get too cocky...I can be wrong from time to time. Rarely, but I admit it when I am. I thought they had more to them and perhaps underestimated Clemson (now 8-3) after their early season. So we now have some movement in my ever so accurate and scientific top 10:
- Georgia (11-0)
- Ohio State (10-1)
- Alabama (10-1)
- Cincinnati (11-0)
- Oklahoma State (10-1)
- Michigan (10-1)
- Notre Dame (10-1)
- Oklahoma (10-1)
- Ole Miss (9-2)
- Baylor (9-2)
Of course, the highlight of the day for me was hearing (since it was not televised) big defensive tackle Jordan Davis scoring an offensive touchdown but it was against Charleston Southern. Basically this was a scrimmage against the B squad, but all four QBs got into it and that's no bad thing. As one may imagine, my Dawgs stay #1. And now that we can move Oregon out of the equation, Ohio State can take their rightful place as #2. I'm certain that the CFP committee will try and keep Bama ahead of Ohio State, but I think that's wrong. Especially after yesterday when Alabama struggled to get past a good Arkansas team and Ohio State obliterated a good Michigan State team. That 1, 2, 3 pecking order cannot be more clear.
After a week of dropping Cincy, I put them back to #4 after a solid besting (finally) of SMU (now 8-3) but they should not rest too comfortable because Oklahoma State is a very near competitor and if they beat Oklahoma in Bedlam next week, they will jump them. And Michigan gets this high for now, but they meet Ohio State this coming weekend. As I've mentioned all season, this Big 10 round robin will clear up all things. Notre Dame rounds out this grouping, both because they look stronger week by week and they still only have the one loss to Cincy. Without a Bearcats loss, they cannot get higher than 5.
I'll include Oklahoma for now but they are at the tail end of the one loss teams (sorry Houston...you have a shot in the AAC championship game.) And now for the first time, we see 2 loss teams here. Of those, I like these two more than the others. Sure, Oregon is still out there as is Iowa, Pitt and BYU. But an argument can be made that some 3 loss teams (Wisconsin and Utah among others) might be better. In truth, Mississippi State has a slightly better argument over Ole Miss but they are 7-4. And we'll see that play out this coming weekend in the Egg Bowl. As for Baylor, they have the win over Oklahoma but they also have two losses (one of them to Oklahoma State.)
At this point, the ACC and Pac 12 are out of the playoff picture. Fans of Cincinnati could not be happier after losses by Oregon and Wake Forest. But they still have to look over their shoulder at the Big 12. If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma this weekend, then it's a championship game between State and Baylor (assuming Baylor beats Texas Tech this weekend.) If Oklahoma beats State this weekend, then it's a rematch in the championship game. Either way, a one loss Big 12 champ will get the playoff nod over an unbeaten Cincy. That's just a fact. And whether you like it or not, it's fair. Blame the schedule. At this point, Cincinnati has to be the biggest Dawg fan and hope that Bama is bested roundly in the SEC championship game. If it's close, Bama could still get in even with 2 losses. And if they win, Bama and Georgia both go. Cincy also needs Oklahoma to win in Bedlam and then lose in the Big 12 championship game.
All that said, let's see how I do this week predicting the playoffs. As mentioned, I was totally wrong last week. So now I will predict:
#1 Georgia vs. #4 Cincinnati
#2 Ohio State vs. #3 Oklahoma State
Again, things get shaky if Bama beats Georgia in the SEC championship game. At that point, I believe Bama would rocket to #1 and Georgia doesn't fall further than #3. For my Dawgs, that is the worst case scenario because I don't want to face Ohio State in the semi-final. And for Cincy, they are out of it. Oklahoma State would face Alabama in the other semi-final. In either scenario, I still see the National Championship game being Georgia vs. Ohio State. They are clearly the two best teams in the country. Georgia has not lost a game yet (and have not allowed more than 17 points to an opponent.) Ohio State has the early loss to Oregon, but has looked stronger and stronger every week since. Alabama has the blemish of the loss to Texas A&M, but they also had close games against Florida and now Arkansas. And honestly, if I'm picking, what I want to see regardless of what happens between Georgia/Bama would be this:
#1 Georgia vs. #4 Oklahoma State and #2 Ohio State vs. #3 Alabama
To me, those are the four best teams in the country. But there remains that pesky SEC championship game. It's going to be a good one. First we need to go through rivalry weekend and let's see where we are next week. Until then...that is all.
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