So my Dawgs keep rolling and got by Tennessee pretty easily after a rough 1st quarter. I'm a little worried about the injuries piling up, but barring a complete collapse of the entire team, we can look forward to a date with Bama on Dec. 4th. Texas A&M still had a shot until they lost to Ole Miss yesterday and I just don't see Alabama losing to both Arkansas and Auburn. Georgia is done with its SEC slate and went undefeated at 8-0 (first time since 1982 I've been told all morning.) As to the rest of my very scientific and in all ways correct top 10:
- Georgia (10-0)
- Oregon (9-1)
- Ohio State (9-1)
- Alabama (9-1)
- Cincinnati (10-0)
- Michigan State (9-1)
- Michigan (9-1)
- Notre Dame (9-1)
- Oklahoma State (9-1)
- Oklahoma (9-1)
So far my top 10 and that of the Playoff Committee have been the same but in different order. That may change this week. They must have been on to something with Oklahoma and with their loss to Baylor this weekend it is now more in line. I'll be somewhat shocked if Oklahoma falls out of their top 10, but I could see Wake Forest (9-1) or possibly even Baylor (8-2) jumping into that tenth spot. For my part, it caused a little shake up in my top 4. Sitting down this morning, I'm caused to truly consider who might beat who just as much as who has beat who. It has a ripple effect because of what has already happened and what is still on the table.
Given yesterday's results, I'd like to put Ohio State at #2 but I can't because of that ever present game earlier in the season when Oregon beat the Buckeyes in Columbus. Head to head matters regardless of how things might have changed over the season. So this order must be the way it is. Then to the fourth spot, I have finally dropped Cincy down a slot because just considering it I do not think they would beat Alabama. I'm not ready to pop them in the #2 spot even after they destroyed New Mexico State yesterday. I think the committee wants them there so they can keep them in the playoff picture even if they lose the SEC championship.
We then move to the Michigan State/Michigan argument. They got flipped by the CFP rankings but once again - head to head. As stated, all of this will be sorted by the end of the season as we'll see Michigan State at Ohio State this coming weekend and Ohio State/Michigan is still out there to be played. From there we move to ever present Notre Dame. They are helped by their schedule of wins and that their only loss comes to the higher ranked Cincinnati. Finally, we deal with the Big 12 situation. The true ranking comes easily enough - Oklahoma State beat Baylor who beat Oklahoma. But Baylor has that second loss. And more, Bedlam remains out there so we'll see the head to head between these last two rankings (as well as the Big 12 championship which will be a rematch of some form.)
So we are left with a lot of IFs here. If we consider the thus far standing rule that the CFP will not put a 2 loss team in there (always subject to change) then we look at the Big 10 first. One of Ohio State and Michigan State is guaranteed a second loss, as is one of Ohio State and Michigan. The way these teams look right now (and the history between Ohio State and Michigan) I see the Buckeyes back in the playoff. Oregon still has Utah (7-3) and Oregon State (6-4) in front of them, as well as the Pac 12 championship if they win out. If they do all of that, they must be the #2 seed (even if we think the Pac 12 is not as strong as the Big 10 - again...head to head!) More to that, we would see another rematch between Oregon and Ohio State so they can fight it out all over again.
That leaves us with the fourth spot in the playoff. Cincinnati still needs help to get there beyond just winning out. That's just a fact. If either Oklahoma or Oklahoma State wins out the rest of the way, including the Big 12 championship, it will be very hard to leave a 12-1 Power 5 champion out of the playoff. The same goes for Wake Forest should it run the rest of the ACC schedule. Because of the top ranked teams and the competing schedules, I think the pecking order is Big 12 then ACC then Cincy if they remain undefeated (not a sure thing as they are likely to face 9-1 Houston for the AAC championship.) Fair or not (and I think it is fair) that is the order. Notre Dame might beat on the door, but they are not getting in (AND they need Cincy to keep winning.)
One last IF must be considered here. If Alabama beats Georgia in the SEC championship, both go to the playoff. Cincy is out. If it is a close game and Georgia just barely wins, the committee will strongly consider a 2 loss Bama. That's just their history of loving the Tide. Either way, Cincy remains in IF land. So to continue on from last week and make my new prognostications, I now think it will come down to:
#1 Georgia vs #4 Wake Forest
#2 Oregon vs #3 Ohio State
I think this because rematches are very difficult to win a second time and assuming Oklahoma and Oklahoma State play twice, both will have 2 losses. In this scenario, Oklahoma has to beat Oklahoma State in Bedlam and then lose in the Big 12 championship game. If State wins Bedlam, they would play Baylor a second time in the championship and even if Baylor wins that, that 2nd loss hurts them. As to Wake Forest, they play Clemson (7-3) this coming weekend. They are looking better, but Wake Forest looks great right now even after their loss to North Carolina. The win against NC State (7-3) is a good win even if close and a win against likely Pitt (8-2) in the ACC championship will look even better. Who thought the ACC still had a shot here? I certainly did not. That said, I've suggested for some time the National Championship will come down to Georgia and Ohio State. I think that still stands. But of course, we still have to play the games. We'll see. Until next week, that is all.
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