It is tempting fate to look too far ahead and certainly to make assumptions, especially when I already have one Championship banked for 2021 (congrats once again Atlanta Braves!) but I'm not the only one that sees one team as national championship quality and several others that week to week look entirely beatable (and some have been.) There will be more shake-up in the top ten this week, but number 1 does not change. Herewith are my ever so scientific and totally correct rankings of the top 10:
- Georgia (9-0)
- Oklahoma (9-0)
- Oregon (8-1)
- Cincinnati (9-0)
- Alabama (8-1)
- Michigan State (8-1)
- Ohio State (8-1)
- Michigan (8-1)
- Notre Dame (8-1)
- Oklahoma State (8-1)
Once again, Georgia saw little trouble putting away Mizzou and continues to roll. There will be one more true test next weekend at Tennessee (5-4) but they've already clinched the SEC East and await their opponent for Dec. 4th. Oklahoma had a BYE week and were surely shocked to be ranked 8th in the first CFP ranking, but they remain only one of two Power 5 teams undefeated and that counts for something in my book. If they continue to go undefeated they will absolutely be one of the top 4 (likely seeded at 2) and join in the playoffs.
For Oregon, I won't deny that the CFP ranking had some influence in my jumping them to #3, but they also likely have the best win of any team in the country when they beat Ohio State in Columbus. And Cincinnati remains undefeated even after a third struggling win in a row. But a win is a win is a win. They don't have but the one good win at Notre Dame but it certainly counts. It is hard to say if they will eventually break through as a group of 5 school, but they are close and I'll keep them at #4 for now.
After debuting at #2 in the CFP ranking, I was tempted to jump Bama but they needed everything to get past an LSU (now 4-5) playing out the string so I could not move them off this spot in my poll. And playing New Mexico State (1-8) next weekend isn't going to do much for them in my book. However, I won't drop them down either. I did not want to punish Michigan State too much, though it was tempting. 6 through 8 remains part of the Big 10 round robin and it will sort itself out as we move forward. Neither Michigan or State has played Ohio State yet and I could have easily put Ohio State ahead of both. But for now, this is the order to me.
Notre Dame jumps one spot to #9 and is helped by Cincy being ranked high. And finally Oklahoma State gets back into it and has three good wins against ranked at the time teams (Kansas State, Baylor and Texas.) They are still in this if they can get probably not one but two wins against Oklahoma and a one loss Big 12 champ would be difficult to leave out of the playoff. Some few other teams could argue for this 10th place spot - UTSA could complain as they remain undefeated but that schedule, man, it just doesn't hold up - Wake Forest (8-1) fell out after losing to North Carolina (5-4) this weekend but they are still in the running for the ACC title - Texas A&M (7-2) would seem to be the best of the two loss teams having the win over Bama and pretty much destroying Auburn (6-3) this weekend - Iowa (7-2) also has three strong wins over ranked teams and still has a shot at the Big 10 title. All four look interesting but not as good as Oklahoma State.
Now that we have the first CFP ranking, I'm going to start prognosticating what the playoff might look like when all is said and done. Georgia is in it barring an inexplicable loss prior to the SEC championship game. Bama has to get by Auburn AND win the SEC Championship to go. Georgia can lose it and still be ranked the 4th seed. I believe that Ohio State will get by both Michigan State and Michigan and win the Big 10. It would help them for Oregon to lose one more game (which I think they will do.) And I think Oklahoma runs the table. They seem to have everything clicking all at once and look good for the #2 seed. Notice who is left out? Yep. Cincy. They need a lot of things to go in their favor the rest of the way such is the bias against the Group of 5 conferences (for right or wrong.) They need to go undefeated first and foremost and Notre Dame must keep winning as well. A loss by Oklahoma would help them but I believe they really need another loss by both Oregon AND Ohio State (if they beat both Michigan and State, they are jumping Cincy as they already have in the CFP ranking.) And they need Georgia to run the table because if Bama runs the rest of their table including the SEC championship, the committee is going to include Bama. No doubt about it. Hell, even if they lost to Georgia there is a good possibility they could still get in as a two loss team depending on what happens elsewhere. The committee just loves Bama that much.
All that said, and if things remain chalk, I see the following:
(1) Georgia vs. (4) Ohio State and (2) Oklahoma vs. (3) Oregon.
I think the only team above that Cincy has a shot to beat is Oregon but you have to have Oregon above Ohio State because of the head to head. So even though I have them as my #4, I just don't see them cracking the CFP top 4 without a lot of luck. Check back next week because this IS college football and things are always bound to change. It's why I love it. That is all.
Comments