So I'm a few days late with my picks. But they have barely begun playing so I don't think one or two games will change my opinion as to how the season will shake out. Of course, these are just a guess having no real weight behind them, but it's a fun exercise both before the season to see how the teams stack up and then after to see how you did. Of course, I'm sure my picks will turn out perfectly. Let's take a look:
American League East
- New York Yankees
- Boston Red Sox (WC)
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Baltimore Orioles
Jeez, not much change from my picks last year other than flipping Boston and Tampa. Of course, any one of the top three teams could switch places and I'd agree with that...except maybe New York. I won't say they are head and shoulders above the other two, but they do have an edge. And I give Boston just a slight edge over Tampa due to a smart organization. That's not to say Tampa lacks such, but that the Red Sox had a very good off-season if you look at the talent they brought in to balance what they already had (and they did not get suckered into Damon as some guessed they might.) Unfortunately for Toronto and Baltimore, neither team has got the goods to challenge the big guys. Sad but true. In fact, it would not surprise me to see Toronto tumble to the bottom of this list.
American League Central
- Minnesota Twins
- Chicago White Sox
- Detroit Tigers
- Cleveland Indians
- Kansas City Royals
For the full team talent, Minnesota has the edge in this division, though Chicago is not far behind them. But Mauer and Morneau give the Twins that one two punch the rest of these teams really don't have. I don't buy the Peavy acquisition for Chicago because pitching was already their real strength. The Twins will have a fight on their hands, however, and not just from Chicago. Detroit maintains a good staff and I still like their lineup. But they are having their usual troubles putting it all together. Cleveland just didn't live up to the hype last year and they are worse off this time around. Sizemore is still a stud, but he's only one man. And sometimes it seems that is all the Royals have playing for them...just one man trying to play every position every day. That's the only way I can understand their repeated failure year in and year out. It is sad for the Royals, sad for the citizens of Kansas City and truly sad for the game of baseball.
American League West
- Seattle Mariners
- Anaheim Angels of California in Los Angeles
- Texas Rangers
- Oakland Athletics
Huzzah! I finally pick someone other than the Angels to win the west. Of course, some of that is brought on by the tiresome prospect of the Angels winning yet another division crown due to lack of trying by the other teams. But I actually think the other teams have a real shot this year...at least Seattle. Were Cliff Lee completely healthy to start the season, I would feel better about this pick, but it does not change the fact that I like the direction the Mariners are going. Lee and King Felix together give them a great one two punch that could lift them above the perennially winning Angels. Texas should be competing, at least from the guys Atlanta shipped them in the Tex trade, but that pitching staff...there is surely talent there, but not enough. Same goes for Oakland. I doubt they will somehow be able to keep Ben Sheets healthy any more than Milwaukee did and that seems the high point. I could be wrong, I don't pay attention to the west coast teams like I should, but these picks work for me this year.
National League East
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Atlanta Braves (WC)
- Florida Marlins
- New York Mets
- Washington Nationals
Proof that I did not let the huge opening day game for the Braves get to me in my picks are the above. Yes, Atlanta is once again picked for the wild card just as last year. And I wasn't far off, was I? Couple of games, really. This year, I would not be surprised to see them win the division outright. But I'm not dumb enough to put them ahead of the Phillies in a preseason poll. Philly is still the class of the league, as much as the division. Utley, Howard and Rollins anchor that team. For now while they can still pay all three, the team remains in the lead. But Atlanta closed the gap over the off-season (I'll speak more on this in a separate post) and I think we'll see a rather close race this year. The Marlins can never be counted out, though they may have to start selling off their high priced parts mid season. And the Natspos have grown. They will not roll over for anybody, but they likely end in 5th place, unless the Mets are as truly horrible as I suspect they might. If they have not yet imploded, they are about to. That front office is so messed up that I cannot see how they ever win a game, except they do have really good players. But the injury bug keeps getting them...again, just a poor organization which would be sad if they played anywhere other than New York.
National League Central
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Chicago Cubs
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Cincinnati Reds
- Houston Astros
- Pittsburgh Pirates
Believe it or not, after St. Louis, this is a pretty tight division. In fact, I think both Chicago and Milwaukee have enough right now to challenge the Cards. But I won't pick against them again until they actually lose it to another team. Perhaps it is favoritism that causes me to pick Chicago next, but so be it. I still think they have a good core. And Milwaukee maintains a great set of players as well. After them, Cincy and Houston can be grouped together as teams ready to take a leap forward but somehow untrusted by me at least to do so. Just not there yet. And I am beginning to think the Pirates are the National League's version of KC. I guess they can continue to be a farm system for the Braves, but it shouldn't be that way.
National League West
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Colorado Rockies
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- San Francisco Giants
- San Diego Padres
I will go with the Dodgers here but I think Colorado will be close behind. In fact, they are right behind the Braves for a pick to win the wild card if not the division. Still, Joe Torre remains one of the best around in pulling a team together and I have little fear he will fall off this year. I'm not as sold on their team this year as I was last year, but they still have the talent to compete. And as stated, the Rockies look strong. Arizona too could challenge, but I think not. And San Fran and San Diego are bottom feeders at present. The Giants are better off and when you have Tim Lincecum as your ace, you are going to win a few games. But the rest of the talent isn't there to back it up and San Diego...well, call me next year to see if anything has changed. The biggest question with them is where Adrian Gonzalez will end up before years end.
For the postseason:
Division Series:
Yankees over Seattle
Boston over Twins
Phillies over Los Angeles
Braves over St. Louis
Championship
Series:
Yankees over Boston
Braves over Phillies
World
Series:
Braves over Yankees in six games
What the hell? It's Bobby's last season! And the team has a shot to be that good. I have not picked them to win it in a while, but it feels right. It will take a lot of luck and some great hits throughout the year but it is not impossible. It is tough to go against the Yankees, however, and they will be the team to beat. No doubt about it. The Sox could put a good run together, no doubt, as could the Phillies. Hell, even St. Louis should go far as could the Rays should they get into the postseason. But I like the make-up for the Braves. The only thing they are lacking really is bringing in an aged guy that's been around the block a few times and knows the score a la Joe Carter or Paul Molitor...but maybe Chipper fills that role on this team. He will definitely be mentoring this year and if you saw his face after Heyward hit that home run on opening day, you know he doesn't mind that a bit. He just needs to get his hits. I am looking forward to a great season and one game in...so far so good. I apologize for the lateness of the picks as I should have had them up over the weekend, but you know...stuff happens. Go Braves! That is all.
Comments