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Saturday, January 09, 2010



I'd enjoy catching a game with you one of these days...

AL Hurd

I get to Turner maybe once a year, but it is a special treat. Give me a note on Facebook and we'll work it out.

I wanted to also give a bit of a guess as to how it may go down with the Hall over the next few years:

2011: Blyleven & Alomar
2012: Larkin & Bagwell
2013: Biggio & Morris
2014: Maddux, Martinez & Raines
2015: Johnson, Glavine & Thomas

This list assumes that the steroid cases will be held accountable. Bonds and Clemens may well get in on the 1st ballot in 2013 (and if so, Morris is screwed.)

I'm also assuming a Hall tendency to make some candidates wait a year before entry after Alomar's case this year. Bagwell and Glavine may have to wait, but I still think Biggio, Maddux & Johnson get in on the 1st ballot.

If the above occurs, that still leaves Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro (and Barry Bonds & Roger Clemens), Lee Smith, Curt Schilling, Mike Piazza, Jeff Kent, John Smoltz, Fred McGriff, Alan Trammell, Bernie Williams, Jeff Kent, Sammy Sosa and Mike Mussina out of the Hall. 2016 ain't gonna vote them all in.


I doubt Martinez or Raines ever get in, though Raines, in my opinion, is more likely. If Martinez has any chance at all, it wont be until after Frank Thomas makes it. I think a precedent needs to be set for DHs, and Edgar isnt going to be the guy to do that. My guess is that he never gets in.

Also, I'd be somewhat surprised if Larkin made it without a long, long wait and not shocked if Morris is left out altogether.

AL Hurd

The DH issue is interesting - while Paul Molitor had little issue gaining entry, Harold Baines lingers on the ballot barely surviving the 5% cutoff each year. Of course, Molitor got over 3,000 hits and Baines did not, coming in at around 2,800. Martinez suffers perhaps from the same thing but his rate stats are amazing. At or better a .300/.400/.500 AVG/OBP/SLG line over his entire career is impressive. That's the quick stats look. And the sight look told you he was the best at his position when he played. While not flashy, I think he belongs eventually. Though I think you are right - he may have to wait for the Vets Committee.

Raines has a better case, I think - just his OBP and steals...his setting the table like Henderson, just not quite as superlative...that doesn't make him a bad player. But another that may have to wait for the Vets. I will not, however, get behind any sabermetric argument that suggests Rock Raines was no better or worse player than Tony Gwynn. That's just nuts.

It would not surprise me to see both wait the requisite 15 years. I am actually curious to see a list of guys that actually did that - stayed on the ballot the full time allowed, but were never elected.

Of course, the admission of McGwire tends to throw all the guess work out the door, it seems to me. Now we have a clear choice next year - the steroid user that never tested positive but admitted it, and the one that wagged his finger saying he never touched the stuff and then a positive test shows up later. I don't think it helps anybody immediately, per se. But it does make voters (I hope) revisit their HoF cases for these guys.

And no - it would not surprise me either to see Larkin and Morris (a yes and a no, respectively for me by the way) toil with no promise on the ballot. It's a shame on both parts really. I still believe - either you are a hall of famer, or you are not. These games just keep the writers thinking they are important.

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