It is Oscar time again and I'm getting a bit of an early start on my picks. I've picked over 50% over the past five years (my best being 21/24 in 2004) and hopefully I can keep up with that pace. I've done some research here and there in which films have won what and now make my best educated guess as to which films will come out on top on February 22nd. Below are my picks and when the winners are announced, I'll mark those I got wrong. So let's get to those picks:
Best Picture - Slumdog Millionaire
This seems to be the consensus pick of all the films up for best picture. This is definitely Danny Boyle's year and I would be very surprised if this film doesn't win. It's won all the other awards and I don't think we'll see a surprise change on Oscar night.
Best Actor - Mickey Rourke for The Wrestler
I'm taking a heartfelt risk here. Sean Penn is the safe choice and I think there is about a 50/50 chance for one of these two men to take home the gold. We may see a split vote here giving the award to Frank Langella, but I am going to go with Mickey. After comingback from where he has been, this would be great to see and I think The Wrestler is making a late showing amongst voters. His interview on Charlie Rose the other night certainly did not hurt him.
Best Actress - Kate Winslet for The Reader
After five previous nominations for Winslet and no wins, I have a hard time believing the Academy would give Meryl Streep her third Oscar before giving Kate her first. Like the above category, there could be a split vote giving the award to Melissa Leo or even Anne Hathaway, but the best actress category isn't as "volatile" as supporting actress usually is. I've not seen the film, but one could see voters giving Winslet this for not just The Reader but so too her performance in Revolutionary Road.
Best Supporting Actor - Heath Ledger for The Dark Knight
The surprise of the night would be to see someone else take this award. There is a chance of some backlash over the sure thing that is Ledger's performance, but that would be wrong-headed. Robert Downey, Jr. would likely be the recipient of any but I foresee Ledger's win here as the surest thing of the night. What an incredible performance and what sadness that he won't be there to accept. Further, at least this great film will win one award after being left off (and wrongly I might add) from the Best Picture list.
Best Supporting Actress - Penelope Cruz for Vicky Cristina Barcelona
This is the toughest of the acting catagories, mostly because several other awards have included Winslet's The Reader performance and she's won. As well, one can never truly accurately pick a lock here. Best Supporting Actress always throws you for a loop. But always consider the Woody Allen actress a strong contender. As well, the voters often like to reward up and coming actresses here. Tomei gives what I understand is a strong performance but she's already won this for My Cousin Vinny. There are two performances from Doubt included, though Viola Davis likely has the edge there. In the end, I'm going with the safe pick of Cruz.
Best Director - Danny Boyle for Slumdog Millionaire
With two of my favorite directors going for this award, it might be a tough call, but Boyle seems to be taking in all the wins. I've loved this guy's work since Shallow Grave and it will be excellent to see him finally take home an Oscar. This is pretty much a sure thing. If Slumdog picks up a lot of the other awards, as I think it will, then he is a sure thing.
Best Foreign Film - Waltz with Bashir
Another pretty sure guess here. As usual, I've not see any of the films, but this one keeps winning. I feel pretty secure with this pick. If it doesn't win, look for The Class to upset.
Best Original Screenplay - Dustin Lance Black for Milk
There is an undercurrent suggesting Wall-E might have a shot here, but I am going to go with Milk as the winner. It seems to have the backing and Milk was a well considered film. I went out on a limb and went against Penn in the acting catagory, but without Slumdog to compete with here, I think Milk is the safe choice.
Best Adapted Screenplay - Simon Beaufoy for Slumdog Millionaire
Another award Slumdog competes for and another it wins. I really don't see how another could possibly win here. It's the safe choice, to be sure.
Best Cinematography - Anthony Dod Mantle for Slumdog Millionaire
I might as well go with the sweep for Slumdog this year. It has a lot of backing. I have not seen much on this catagory but this seems to be a safe pick. No idea who might upset, though I understand the duo of Menges and Deakens has a shot.
Best Art Direction - Donald Graham Burt and Victor J. Zolfo for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Without Slumdog to compete with here, Benjamin Button finally gets a chance to win some awards. It is the most nominated this year and from what I've seen of the film, it deserves this. It will pick up some other technical awards this year, to the detriment of The Dark Knight, also nominated in many of the same catagories. Just no love for the Batman this year.
Best Costume Design - Michael O'Connor for The Duchess
When you have a period piece with lots of fancy dresses, don't pick against it. It's just that simple.
Best Film Editing - Chris Dickens for Slumdog Millionaire
In a sweeps year, pick the sweeping film. Thus, Slumdog takes this too. Of course, I'd like to see The Dark Knight take a victory, but I don't see it happening.
Best Sound Editing - Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood for Wall-E
This seems to me a three way race between Wall-E, The Dark Knight and Slumdog Millionaire, the latter especially given the sweeping nature of its awards night. But I think the veteren Burtt and the love for the film will give Wall-E the win here.
Best Sound Mixing - Slumdog Millionaire
I'm not going to list all of the peope involved in this but I think here is where we see the sweep taking place. For the above award, they are looking at sound effects creation wherein here we see the mixing of said sounds into the film itself. While Wall-E might have a shot here too, I think these two films split these awards. It is possible that The Dark Knight could sweep the two, giving it a decent night, but look for the sweep.
Best Score - A.R. Rahman for Slumdog Millionaire
He's won just about everything else for this and I think he'll be part of the sweep for the night. From what I have heard, it is deserving too.
Best Song - "Down to Earth" from Wall-E
With The Boss not competing this year, it is a wide open race. Both of the other nominees are from the same film so they will likely cancel each other out giving Peter Gabriel a win. Too bad he won't be performing it on Oscar night but I understand why (they only wanted to give these nominees a short time to put them into a medly and Gabriel refused.)
Best Make Up - Greg Cannom for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
In the tech catagories, Benjamin Button will do well. Hellboy II might have a shot, but look for the amazing work in Button to take the gold.
Best Visual Effects - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
I won't be listing all the people for this either, but suffice to say Button takes another of the tech awards. The Dark Knight could sneak by, but I don't think so. The aging process alone in Button seems to deserve it.
Best Animated Feature - Wall-E
This one is pretty easy. Many felt this to be the best of the year in total so it would surprise me if another broke through here. It would be silly to pick against it.
And Now The Crapshoot:
Best Documentary Feature - Man on Wire
Best Documentary Short - The Witness from the Balcony of Room 306
Best Animated Short - Presto
Best Live Action Short - Spielzeugland (Toyland)
I actually feel pretty strongly about this other than docu short. Man on Wire has been winning a lot this year, despite Werner Herzog and Erryl Morris both having films nominated. And for the shorts, the animated has a Pixar entry which I cannot guess against and the live action short has to do with the Holocaust. One should know never to bet against that in an Oscar race. Tried and true always works in the crapshoot. Let's see how well I do.
Well, that's that. Hopefully I can get over the 50% threshhold if not more. I'd like to see me do better than half on the crapshoot. That always helps the final tally. The year I got 21 out of 24, I guessed three out of four in the crapshoot correctly. Return on the 22nd where I will try and live-blog the event. I do like to watch it though, so it may not be a lively live-blog. If anything, I'll certainly do a wrap up the next day. That is all.
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