We've come to that time once again for me to place my Oscar picks out there for the general public to ridicule and/or be amazed. I've not done too terribly bad on this score for the last few years and you can see those picks in this thread. I hope to do slightly better than 2005 but last year worked out pretty well with me picking 19 out of the 24 catagories. It's hard to beat 2004, however - I picked 21 out of 24. And this year there are some sure things and some real toss ups, Best Picture amongst the more difficult guesses in many a year. But here they are for your general amusement:
Best Picture - The Departed (Winner - The Departed)
Each and every one of the nominees could potentially take home the gold. The Queen and Letters from Iwo Jima have slightly less of a chance and the big three are easily The Departed, Babel and Little Miss Sunshine as the dark horse that stands a great chance of an upset. In fact, with the big three being so close, it could produce a split vote thus leading to a surprise winner. But I discount Letters from Iwo Jima because it just doesn't seem to have the money or love behind it. Some people would surely like to see both Spielberg and Eastwood on the stage together, but I don't think that is enough to put it over the top. Look out for The Queen as the potential upset if a split vote occurs, but it's a bit too British and too small to take Best Picture. If Little Miss Sunshine wins, look also to Best Supporting Actor as an early indication with an Alan Arkin win in that catagory. It is loved, but also a bit too small and a bit too light for Best Picture quality. And Babel is just not loved as the others are, even if the Hollywood Foreign Press liked it. It does have that editing nod, however. But I am sticking with The Departed. It is the grandest of them all. It has a great cast. And it just feels like a Best Picture type. As well, it's time a Marty picture took home the gold.
Best Actor - Peter O'Toole for Venus (Winner - Forest Whitaker for The Last King of Scotland)
Here is my first "against the grain" pick. It is simply due to his long history of losing that I am anticipating an upset here. I know Forest Whitaker has won every single award this year and I will surely have pie on my face come Monday morning. But it is a longstanding tradition to give actors their due after so many snubs, and O'Toole would become the first actor to acheive more than seven nominations without one win to show for it. Besides, he isn't geting any younger and thus has very few chances left. I would be perfectly happy with a win by Whitaker. He is a tremendous actor and it is about time he was given support and love by that community. But he has time left. For this night, I am picking O'Toole.
Best Actress - Helen Mirren for The Queen (Winner - Helen Mirren for The Queen)
This is the safest pick of the night. There is absolutely zero chance that anyone else could win in this catagory. No one stands close. If you are placing bets, this is the one to put your money on, but you would not win much since she is the odds on favorite. And good for her, I says. Mirren is a brilliant actress and deserves the little gold man.
Best Supporting Actor - Eddie Murphy for Dreamgirls (Winner - Alan Arkin for Little Miss Sunshine)
There was a time when this was a sure thing. Not anymore. Alan Arkin has some great support out there and as mentioned, if Little Miss Sunshine performs the upset for picture, Arkin winning here will give an early indication of such. He certainly would deserve it given that he too has never won before. Wahlberg too is loved for his role in The Departed. But I have to think his nomination is win enough. If there is a split vote between Murphy and Arkin, however, it could be Marky Mark going home with the statue. I don't think Jackie Earle Haley's role is enough to sway the older members of the Academy (so too with Arkin) and Hounsou is another lucky to have a nomination. I'm picking Murphy and proud to do so. It's time he gained the respect in Hollywood he deserves (and I still think he should have been nominated for Nutty Professor II: The Klumps!)
Best Supporting Actress - Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls (Winner - Jennifer Hudson for Dreamgirls)
Most people would tell you this is a safe bet as well, but anyone that follows the Academy Awards knows that Best Supporting Actress is NEVER a safe bet. Too many shockers have come in this catagory. However, Hudson's performance has wowed many and I think she is a good pick here. She's gone home with most of the awards and I think her only real competition is little Abigail Breslin for Little Miss Sunshine. I would not be displeased to see that upset, but I think this former Idol contestant sees Oscar gold come Sunday.
Best Director - Martin Scorsese for The Departed (Winner - Martin Scorsese for The Departed)
This is my favorite catagory of the night. I cannot wait to see Marty take home his first statue. I picked him in 2005 too for The Aviator only to see Clint walk home with the award. That won't happen tomorrow night. This is not a win for The Departed. It is a win for Goodfellas...Raging Bull...Taxi Driver...Mean Streets...The Last Temptation of Christ...and on and on and on. It's a lifetime achievement award and well deserved. And look - I imagine Marty will take it anyway he can get it at this point. I am looking forward to his win.
Best Foreign Film - Pan's Labyrinth (Winner - The Lives of Others)
I have yet to see this film but from what I have heard, it is very well loved. You can see that by the number of nominations it has this year. I understand that The Lives of Others is a strong film and many have picked it to take the gold instead. But I look at the number of nominations for Labyrinth and see an almost sure thing. I look forward to seeing it, too.
Best Original Screenplay - Michael Arndt for Little Miss Sunshine (Winner - Little Miss Sunshine)
This is where the Academy will likely award Little Miss Sunshine. Usually, the film up for Best Picture that will not get the win gets it here instead. It is possible that The Queen could eke out a win, but I think the support is far too strong for Little Miss Sunshine to lose.
Best Adapted Screenplay - William Monahan for The Departed (Winner - The Departed)
Knowing that this is a remake and that the American version fleshed out a great bit from an already loved Hong Kong film, I think this is likely a sure bet. I suppose some might desire to see Sacha Baron Cohan an stage (myself included just for the humor) but it is odd to me that that film is even up for this catagory. It should be in the original screenplay catagory. I think The Departed takes this easily.
Best Cinematography - Emmanuel Lubezki for Children of Men (Winner - Pan's Labyrinth)
Here is another film I have yet to see, but greatly look forward to seeing when I get the chance. It is not the classic cinematography of grand sweeping vistas and color, but I understand it to be an amazing piece of work and Lubezki has already won his share of awards already this year. I could not tell you what might act as the upset film, though I understand The Prestige has some support as well and there is always Vilmos Zsigmond to look out for. Still - stick with Children of Men.
Best Art Direction - Eugenio Caballero and Pilar Revuelta for Pan's Labyrinth (Winner - Pan's Labyrinth)
I suppose some could make the argument that Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest could take this but from what I have seen of Pan's Labyrinth (not much) it is some amazing work. Truly unreal. I think this is nearly a given.
Best Costume Design - Sharen Davis for Dreamgirls (Winner - Marie Antoinette)
Usually this goes to a great period film and one could suggest Marie Antoinette fits that bill, but recreating the styles of the Dreamgirls period almost falls into the same thinking. Those dresses and period styles of the 50's, 60's and 70's is not always easy to pull off and from what little I have seen of the film, it is done to perfection. I think this is another sure shot.
Best Film Editing - Stephen Mirrione and Douglas Crise for Babel (Winner - The Departed)
One is always tempted to pick Thelma Schoonmaker but she just won two years ago for The Aviator. The Departed and Babel shared this win at the Editors awards and I understand Babel to have some impressive cuts. There is also United 93 to consider (and it is my Best Picture choice of the year) but I don't know that it has enough love from the Academy to push it over the top. This is where Babel gets its award for the night.
Best Sound Editing - Christopher Boyes and George Watters II for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Winner - Letters from Iwo Jima)
No one would ever think this would be one of the most difficult catagories of the night, but for me it is the toughest choice of them all. I have vacillated all week between Pirates and Letters from Iwo Jima but ultimately picked Pirates. Here's why - the same team is up for both Letters and Flags of our Fathers. I have tried to play harder not smarter in the past by picking the film most likely to benefit from a split vote and it has not worked out too well. But I am going to do it here. Flags and Letters cancels each other out and Pirates goes home with the gold. However, there is a strong possiblity that the voters will place all of their eggs into the Letters basket given its more critical success, so it could easily walk away happy. But I am picking Pirates. Ugh. Sound Editing is not supposed to be this hard.
Best Sound Mixing - Michael Minkler, Bob Beemer and Willie Burton for Dreamgirls (Winner - Dreamgirls)
It is tough to count out a film that mixes music. Look at Ray from 2005. I think Flags could easily pick up a win here - maybe Pirates too. But look for the music film to take home the gold. By the way - this team has six wins between them, three of those for music films (Ray, Chicago and Bird.)
Best Score - Alexandre Desplat for The Queen (Winner - Babel)
This was another difficult catagory. From what I have heard of the various scores, I personally enjoy Gustavo Santaolalla's work in Babel. But he won last year for Brokeback Mountain. As well, the finest score I've heard this year was Desplat's work for The Painted Veil which won a BAFTA. I wonder if he might not get a little extra credit for that. It comes down to those two in the end, and I am crossing my fingers and going with Desplat.
Best Song - "Listen" from Dreamgirls (Winner - "I Need to Wake Up" from An Inconvenient Truth)
It's a power ballad that tries very hard to equal the great "I Am Telling You..." etc. from the original show and an easy winner if it were not for the other two Dreamgirls songs up against it. They could end up cancelling each other out and giving it to either James Taylor/Randy Newman or Melissa Etheridge. There are no huge stars other than those three up this year so it's not as if the winner would be a "gift" to see one of them win. Besides, Etheridge's song plays over the credits. If there is a non-Dreamgirls song that upsets, choose "Our Town" from Cars. After all - it is Pixar.
Best Make-Up - David Marti and Montse Ribe for Pan's Labyrinth (Winner - Pan's Labyrinth)
I predict more Pan's Labyrinth love coming here. I have heard some whispers that Apocalypto might sneak through, but there may well be some general Gibson backlash still going on that could hurt it. Besides - have you seen some of the work in Pan's Labyrinth? Wow...just wow!
Best Visual Effects - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest (Winner - Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest)
As usual, I am not listing the whole crew responsible for this. And there are actually only four of them this year. But this is the safest bet of the night for Pirates. I personally enjoyed the work in Superman Returns, but I don't see how it can beat Pirates. Look for the win here as a given.
Best Animated Feature - Cars (Winner - Happy Feet)
It's Pixar. It's the one that made more money (I think, though Happy Feet might be sneaking up on it.) And did I mention that it's Pixar? Don't ever count out that studio. And there is good reason why. They are that good. I have not personally seen it (or any of the nominees this year) but it seems a sure bet.
And now the crapshoot:
Yes, the always enjoyable crapshoot of documentaries and short films that very few people have ever seen and certainly not by me. I generally do a quick guess for each (though I have often seen one or two of the documentaries.) This year I am going with:
Best Documentary Feature: An Inconvenient Truth (Winner - An Inconvenient Truth)
Best Documentary Short Subject: The Blood of Yingzhou District (Winner - The Blood of Yingzhou District)
Best Animated Short Film - The Little Match Girl (Winner - The Danish Poet)
Best Live Action Short Film - West Bank Story (Winner - West Bank Story)
I have actually seen An Inconvenient Truth, and truth be told, it ain't bad. Even got me to think. I understand Jesus Camp was also well received. But I imagine the Academy won't be able to resist Al Gore. As for the others - better than educated guesses, but guesses all the same. I've done my research, but you just never know with these.
Finally, the Hersholt Award is going to Sherry Lansing this year (she's the former head of Paramount) and I understand Tom Cruise and his "crazy" will be there to present it to her. And I am excited about the Honorary Oscar going to Ennio Morricone, best known for his Sergio Leone scores as well as The Untouchables, The Mission, Bugsy and Cinema Paradiso, among others. Well deserved, I say. I am truly looking forward to Ellen Degeneres as host. She's done a fine job at other awards shows and I still think she is damn funny. She ought to make the excrutiating time go by quickly, though recall that I am one that thinks these shows should last until they are over, regardless of how long it takes. Yes, I am a sucker for punishment. Let's see who sticks their foot in their mouth, who thanks everyone ever born and who dresses like a swan this year. The whole thing kicks off Sunday night at 8pm on ABC. Here is a nifty printable ballot if you want to keep track. I'll be back Monday to recap and see how poorly I did or how brilliant I am. I am sure we all know it is the later, right? Right?? That is all.
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