I've been slightly remiss at commenting on the UN agreement to pull Israel out of Lebanon and calls for Hezbollah to be disarmed (where have we heard that before?) Call it one part lack of faith and one part waiting. Unfortunately, the waiting has explained my lack of faith as I see no disarming of Hezbollah and Israel being hung out to dry, and much of that is their own fault. However, I don't wish to rant but rather highlight some interesting (and accurate) words of others that express things perhaps more clearly than I might. First up is Donald Sensing (who thanfully is back to blogging full time at One Hand Clapping):
The arrangement between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government will no longer be “tacit.” Since 2000 Hezbollah has won seats in the Lebanese parliament and two Hezbollahis are cabinet ministers of the Lebanese government. In weeks and months to come Hezbollah’s influence inside Lebanon, high before the war, will come to dominate. By the end of this year, conservatively, there will be no meaningful distinction between Hezbollah troops and Lebanese troops. The Lebanese national army and the Hezbollah military wing will be, for all practical purposes, the same - and Hezbollah will be in control.
That is his basic analysis and I tend to agree with it. He goes on to note that Israel is in a tough spot right now and quotes some suggesting that another round of warfare is in the offing. More on that in a moment. Next up we have Mark at Decision '08 looking at Condi Rice's latest on the agreement. He takes her agruments apart with ease. Here are the important points (italics are Condi's points):
(1) First, it puts in place a full cessation of hostilities. We also insisted on the unconditional release of the abducted Israeli soldiers. Hezbollah must immediately cease its attacks on Israel, and Israel must halt its offensive military operations in Lebanon, while reserving the right of any sovereign state to defend itself.
The full cessation of hostilities was not the goal of the United States and Israel - we could have had that without going to war. The soldiers have not been returned, nor will they be, unless Israel pays a king’s ransom of dozens or hundreds of prisoners they hold. The halting of Israel’s military operations is not a good outcome, not when Hezbollah remains entrenched in the south with no intention of moving. Israel was exercising its sovereign right to defend itself when it was stopped in its tracks by its inept leadership and this outrageous ceasefire.
(2) Second, this resolution will help the democratic government of Lebanon expand its sovereign authority. The international community is imposing an embargo on all weapons heading into Lebanon without the government’s consent. We are also enhancing UNIFIL, the current U.N. force in Lebanon. The new UNIFIL will have a robust mandate, better equipment and as many as 15,000 soldiers — a sevenfold increase from its current strength. Together with this new international force, the Lebanese Armed Forces will deploy to the south of the country to protect the Lebanese people and prevent armed groups such as Hezbollah from destabilizing the area.
Pure fantasy; Lebanon will not take on Hezbollah; they aren’t even pretending they will. Nor will the UN, as it has made abundantly clear. There will be no stoppage of weapons shipments to rearm Hezbollah, as Lebanon and the UN would then have to actually do something, and they don’t intend to do anything other than deploy troops and close their eyes to the continued prescence of Hezbollah in the south.
(3) Finally, this resolution clearly lays out the political principles to secure a lasting peace: no foreign forces, no weapons and no authority in Lebanon other than that of the sovereign Lebanese government. These principles represent a long-standing international consensus that has been affirmed and reaffirmed for decades — but never fully implemented. Now, for the first time, the international community has put its full weight behind a practical political framework to help the Lebanese government realize these principles, including the disarmament of all militias operating on its territory.
This is risible; it would be hilarious, if the subject were not so deadly serious. This directly contradicts the statements of Kofi Annan and the Lebanese government regarding their unwillingness to even try to disarm Hezbollah. The paragraph might as well have been written by Jimmy Carter, so divorced as it is from the situation that actually exists.
In Iraq, as badly as things are going, at least we’re fighting the good fight, as we are in Afghanistan; we’re taking casualties and we’re working hard at a better future. In Lebanon, we have ceded the ground to Hezbollah, in practice if not in intention, by putting all of our eggs in the basket of the UN and the Lebanese Army, two institutions that will have quite a contest in determining which is the more ineffectual.
Very similar to Sensing, though I would slightly disagree with Mark on his points at the end. In some ways, our work trying to stand the Iraqi army up is coming under the same false hope that one might place on the Lebanese army. The forces can either be effective or not, and neither seem capable of providing real security at the moment. And as much as it is a detriment to Israeli and US goals, it makes things far worse for Lebanon and Iraq. Neither society will be safe until their own can stand and fight terrorists. At least Iraqi forces are trying however, which is more than I can say for Lebanon. I understand they probably would, if they could, but considering how closely tied Hezbollah is with the national government, I don't see anything different from what Sensing suggested above.
All of which leads me to agree with the notion that another round of warfare will be in the works between Israel and whatever new or altered form Hezbollah comes up with. I don't see much of a way out of it considering that Israel is really no better off now than they were before and Hezbollah seems emboldened. The UN forces will do nothing and neither will the Lebanese goverment, so it will be left up to Israel (again) to make a move. If so, let us hope they decide on a better battle plan as this last one was misreable. That is all.
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