And we come to that time again. The Oscars arrive Sunday night at 8pm, and I fear they will be insufferable due to the amount of message pictures nominated. And making picks will be near impossible this year since I have seen so few. But picks I will make since I do it every year. Past years can be seen here, and I did pretty well. Here is this year's list of nominees in a handy printable ballot. Now let's see how I do.
Best Picture - Brokeback Mountain (Winner - Crash)
Let's just get it over with now, shall we? I have been going back and forth all week trying to decide if Brokeback will dominate, or if Crash will sneak through as several have suggested it might. But looking at how well I think it will do in the tech catagories, and sensing a certain vibe from Hollywood at the moment, I am going to pick Brokeback to take the award. I have not seen it, but will once it comes out on DVD. But if Crash wins, do not be surprised.
Best Actor - Philip Seymour Hoffman for Capote (Winner - Phillip Seymour Hoffman for Capote)
And good on ye, I says. Hoffman is my favorite actor working today, and even though I have not seen Capote, I can still say with confidence that this award is earned. I cannot imagine that he isn't great in the film. It is good to know he will have a little golden statue on his mantle come Monday. He has earned it!
Best Actress - Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line (Winner - Reese Witherspoon for Walk the Line)
Just like Hoffman, she has cornered the market on her catagory and I don't see how she can lose at this point. Which is kind of sad. Don't get me wrong, I love Reese Witherspoon. I have seen just about all of her movies over the years (including this one just the other night), and since Election, she has generally given a great performance, regardless of the genre. But this performance is not that much different than what she has done before, save that she sang her own songs. And that was impressive as she sounded quite good. She was very enjoyable in Walk the Line, but if she is the front runner for Best Actress, then this has been a pretty weak year for lead actresses.
Best Supporting Actor - Matt Dillon for Crash (Winner - George Clooney for Syriana)
This is one pick where I am going out on a limb. I think Paul Giamatti may very well take this home, but there has been some thought that Clooney may take it because he won't be winning anywhere else, and this is his best shot. He has won for the role in some circles, but Giamatti's nomination is really to correct the wrong of not nominating him last year for Sideways. In that thinking, I sense that the votes may cancel each other out and see a surprise of Dillon walking to the stage. Many have suggested that this may be his defining role. He has certainly been at the business long enough and if he takes it, then I will smile. And have picked correctly.
Best Supporting Actress - Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener (Winner - Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener)
Here is another concensus pick and I don't see any reason to go against the grain. She has won just about everywhere she was nominated, and her strongest competition may be Michelle Williams from Brokeback Mountain. However, if Weisz loses, I predict it will be to Amy Adams for Junebug. I believe she won the BAFTA and has been a strong darkhorse. Still, I cannot wait to see the very pregnant Weisz take the stage as she is beautiful, and especially so at the moment given her rather large chest and how they will certainly bundle it up for the awards. Good times ahead. Very good times.
Best Director - Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain (Winner - Ang Lee for Brokeback Mountain)
If Best Picture is a race, this award is not. I cannot see how anyone else can win this. Ang Lee is a terrific director, and both Sense and Sensibility and The Ice Storm were outstanding films. I would not think that this film could be any different in achievement. If he wins, he deserved it. If he loses, he was robbed. And I have not even seen the film. Very much like Hoffman for Best Actor, it is about time that Lee was rewarded for an incredible career so far.
Best Foreign Film - Tsotsi (Winner - Tsotsi)
The strongest competition for this film is probably Paradise Now. However, even if I thought it would win, I would not pick it due to the subject. Can it be that Hollywood has gone that far that they would reward a film trying to find common ground with suicide bombers? The answer to that is most likely yes, but I still choose Tsotsi. It seems to be the frontrunner anyway.
Best Original Screenplay - Paul Haggis and Bobby Moresco for Crash (Winner - Crash)
Given that it may very well win best picture and is not up against Brokeback in this catagory, I think it is a safe bet to pick Crash to win here. It was nice to see Woody Allen get his usual screenplay nod for Match Point, and Clooney can feel good about the nomination. But Crash takes the statue.
Best Adapted Screenplay - Larry McMurtry and Diana Ossana for Brokeback Mountain (Winner - Brokeback Mountain)
Here we begin to see the sweep of the technical awards that I predict Brokeback will make. There is some strong competition here, but I think this is a safe lock. The only thing that prevents a full sweep of the night are the acting catagories.
Best Cinematographer - Rodrigo Prieto for Brokeback Mountain (Winner - Memoirs of a Geisha)
This is always one of my favorite catagories, but this year I don't know any of the names as I normally do. Looking them up, I discovered that Robert Elswit, the DP for Good Night, and Good Luck is also PTA's usual DP going all the way back to Hard Eight. And there is a strong case to be made for Dion Beebe's work in Memoirs of a Geisha, but from what I have heard, the look of Brokeback is outstanding. Westerns generally lead to beautiful vistas and wonderful natural light, and many people are picking Brokeback to take this one, so I follow right along.
Best Art Direction - John Myhre and Gretchen Rau for Memoirs of a Geisha (Winner - Memoirs of a Geisha)
Outside of a few catagories that it goes up against Brokeback Mountain, I think Memoirs will have a pretty good night overall. The general opinion is that this is the right choice for Art Direction, and looking at the other nominees, I would think that only maybe Harry Potter presents much of a challenge.
Best Costume Design - Colleen Atwood for Memoirs of a Geisha (Winner - Memoirs of a Geisha)
Hard to think that gay cowboys couldn't come up with a decent enough costume to compete here, but maybe Pride and Prejudice presents a challenge. Again, still a pretty good night for Geisha.
Best Film Editing - Hughes Winborne for Crash (Winner - Crash)
One catagory in which Crash does not have to compete with the Mountain, they take it home with ease. Cinderella Man may pose a threat but I don't think so. Too bad, because Cinderella Man was a great movie and deserved more love.
Best Sound Editing - Mike Hopkins and Ethan Van der Ryn for King Kong (Winner - King Kong)
And now begins what I predict will be a half and half night for the big ape. One might assume that King Kong would sweep the heavy techs, but I think we might see some surprises. But not here.
Best Sound Mixing - Paul Massey, D.M. Hemphill and Peter F. Kurland for Walk the Line (Winner - King Kong)
This may be a bias due to seeing the film recently, but I thought there was some outstanding sound in Walk the Line. The mixing of voices and music with actors that did not really know how to sing (especially Witherspoon) probably took some work to catch the glitches. I caught none, and I was listening. It's normally the big splashy action pics that win sound, but I go against the grain this year. Now watch me be wrong.
Best Score - Gustavo Santaolalla for Brokeback Mountain (Winner - Brokeback Mountain)
Usually I would not bet against the great John Williams, but he is up against himself this year for Memoirs of a Geisha and Munich. If he cancels himself out, Brokeback wins. If not, then look to Williams with Memoirs. I am betting on him cancelling himself out.
Best Song - "It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp" from Hustle & Flow (Winner - It's Hard Out Here for a Pimp from Hustle & Flow)
Yes, I am guessing that the Academy cannot help but try and pretend they are cool. Eminem won when he was up, so why turn against hip hop now? "In the Deep" from Crash could win, and I would love for Dolly Parton to win for her song from Transamerica, but I am picking Hustle & Flow.
Best Make-Up - Howard Berger and Tami Lane for The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe (Winner - The Chronicles of Narnia: The Lion, The Witch and the Wardrobe)
I would not have picked Sith, and Cinderella Man really did not shine that much for me in the make-up area, though it was good. And even though I have not yet seen the film above, I have certainly seen the previews and the make-up does indeed look outstanding. Probably a sure thing here.
Best Visual Effects - King Kong (Winner - King Kong)
I just don't feel like listing the whole team for Kong, but it seems hard to pick against Jackson's boys when it comes to effects these days. I don't plan to start now.
Best Animated Feature Film - Wallace & Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit (Winner - Wallace & Gromit int he Curse of the Were-Rabbit)
Most everyone is picking this one to win, and I imagine there is a legion of fans out there that will love to hear that this feature film won as Wallace & Gromit has quite the following. I think this is another safe bet.
And now the Crapshoot:
As always, the documentaries and short films are so obscure that it is impossible to pick with any feeling of accuracy. But I put on the good front and try anyway, hoping maybe I score one out of four. And this year, I have actually seen one of the nominations, and would have seen two if Grizzly Man had cleared whatever obstacle it had for a nomination. Anyway, here are the final picks,
Best Documentary Feature: March of the Penguins (Winner - March of the Penguins)
Best Documentary Short: God Sleeps in Rwanda (Winner - A Note of Triumph: The Golden Age of Norman Corwin)
Best Animated Short Film: The Moon and the Son: An Imagined Conversation (Winner - The Moon and the Sun: An Imagined Conversation)
Best Live Action Short Film: Six Shooter (Winner - Six Shooter)
Lastly, Robert Altman will be receiving an Honorary Oscar. It should be interesting to hear what he has to say, and to see the retrospective of his work. He has some dreadful films, but he also has some classics. In fact, my tag line comes from one of them. He has been able to find ways to return to importance over and over, and even though I hear he is a giant asshole to work with, when he is on, he is on so it must work. I'll applaud this recognition. Perhaps some time before the show I will look at other chances in which recognition was not so forthcoming from the Academy towards Altman.
And that, as they say, is that. I really don't have much of a dog in any hunt this year, other than to see my picks win. I just hope the winners keep their lists at home with their causes and their speeches short. Tune in Monday morning for a recap of the Awards and see me eat crow for my numerous wrong choices. That is all.
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