Well, it's that time again. Tomorrow night we will see who wins the awards and who goes home empty handed. Last year's picks went pretty well for me, though I admit to getting lucky in some of the crap-shoot catagories. The show starts at 8pm (ET) and who knows when it will end. And I've already voiced my displeasure at some of the ways Gil Cates has tried to ruin the whole thing, so let's not go back into that. You can find a complete list of the nominations here. Below, you will see my picks for who will win and some additional commentary if there is something to say about it. So let's get to it, shall we?
Best Picture - Million Dollar Baby (Winner - Million Dollar Baby)
This has to be one of the toughest years to choose who will take home the statue. I have vacillated over and over about this, going between Million Dollar Baby and The Aviator, but in the end I think there will be a rare split between Picture and Director. See below for my reasoning on Director, but Clint's boxing pic will take the gold in this catagory, despite The Aviator seeming to be the type of epic film the voters love to award. It's a tough call, and the two front runners could split the vote giving the award to Sideways or even Ray, but I think this will be the end result.
Best Actor - Jamie Foxx for Ray (Winner - Jamie Foxx for Ray)
I think this is probably the safest bet for the night. Foxx has won just about every other award during the season and I see no reason why this one will turn out differently. It was a great performance and Foxx deserves this. Plus, I imagine his acceptance speech will equal the one from the Golden Globes. It's this man's year.
Best Actress - Hillary Swank for Million Dollar Baby (Winner - Hillary Swank for Million Dollar Baby)
Another tough catagory to pick. Swank has won the bulk of the awards, but Bening gives her some competition. Plus, they could cancel each other out and send it to someone like Imelda Staunton for Vera Drake, but look for Swank to end up two for two in the Best Actress catagory leaving Bening without an award yet again.
Best Supporting Actor - Morgan Freeman for Million Dollar Baby (Winner - Morgan Freeman for Million Dollar Baby)
I'll give you that this is the sentimental pick, but it has roots in reality. Freeman won the SAG award for this and he as never won before. The Academy loves to award old timers and Freeman certainly falls into that catagory, but this is no mercy choice - I understand he is deserving. Look for tough competition from potentially Clive Owen (my choice for the next James Bond) who won the BAFTA and Golden Globe, but if there is a dark horse, it may be Thomas Haden Church for Sideways. If anything, Church may win to make up for the snub for Paul Giamatti in the Best Actor catagory. But in the end, I think the award goes to Freeman.
Best Supporting Actress - Cate Blanchett for The Aviator (Winner - Cate Blanchett for The Aviator)
Another tough one to call. I understand that Virginia Madsen has strong support and that Sophie Okonedo is a dark horse here, but in the end I think Blanchett takes the Oscar home. All I hear are raves about her performance and if anything, it gives the Academy one more chance to remember Kate Hepburn. As for Portman, I think the nomination may be her reward even after taking home the Golden Globe, but this is a notoriously shocking award (think Marisa Tomei for My Cousin Vinny.) It could go almost any way.
Best Director - Martin Scorsese for The Aviator (Winner - Clint Eastwood for Million Dollar Baby)
And now we get to the split. As much as Eastwood appears to be the front runner here, I think the Academy will award Marty for his long-standing work rather than for this film. Not that his achievement is not noteworthy, but it certainly is not his best film or best work. Eastwood took home the DGA award for this, but tomorrow look for Marty to win his first Oscar. If he doesn't, I may have to stop watching this show. Besides, I think Eastwood will get his credit with the picture vote above. Remember, only directors vote for this one, and everyone votes for Picture. And I cannot discount Eastwood and Scorsese splitting the voting opening up a way for Mike Leigh to win. If Marty can't win, that is how I would prefer it to go.
Best Foreign Language Film - The Sea Inside (Winner - The Sea Inside)
Actually, this is another tough choice. I think the toughest competition comes from France's The Chorus as a sentimental pick, but The Sea Inside has picked up awards elsewhere and seems to be the most talked about film on the list. I'm still wondering why The Motorcycle Diaries did not get a nomination here, not because I liked the film (I have not seen it) but it seems to be the critic darling. I'm sticking with my choice.
Best Original Screenplay - Charlie Kaufman, Michel Gondry and Pierre Bismuth for Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind (Winner - Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)
If anything, this will win because it should have been in the running for Best Picture. It was certainly the best film I saw in 2004. But there is also the love for Kaufman in Hollywood and this is their way of rewarding his admittedly great work. Why he did not win for Adaptation, I will never know. I really don't think there is much competition here as Vera Drake was actually written after the fact (Mike Leigh does mostly improvisation during his films and then puts it down on paper afterwards) and I don't see The Aviator taking this one home.
Best Adapted Screenplay - Alexander Payne and Jim Taylor for Sideways (Winner - Sideways)
As much as I think Million Dollar Baby has a shot here, I think this will be where the Academy awards Sideways. Often you will see a film not really in the running to win the Picture catagory winning in the screenplay catagory as a consolation prize. This was a critic's darling this year and I think the writers will follow along by awarding Payne.
Best Cinematography - Caleb Deschanel for The Passion of the Christ (Winner - The Aviator)
I will admit that this is a sentimental pick for me, not because I loved the film so much (though I did) but because I have always admired Deschanel's work. The Aviator could easily pick up this prize, but in the end, I think The Passion of the Christ takes it home. I'm willing to take the risk of getting it wrong.
Best Art Direction - Dante Ferretti and Francesca Lo Schiavo for The Aviator (Winner - The Aviator)
Thus begins what I think will be a good night for The Aviator in the technical awards catagories. I really don't think there is much competition here so by default, The Aviator takes it home.
Best Costume Design - Sandy Powell for The Aviator (Winner - The Aviator)
And it picks this one up too. There is a chance that Finding Neverland might take this home, and even an outside shot for Troy if you ask me, but look for The Aviator to win here as well.
Best Film Editing - Thelma Schoonmaker for The Aviator (Winner - The Aviator)
Again, part of their near sweep and a deserved award for a long-time Scorsese team player. Plus, it will be interesting to see that bobbing head of Schoonmaker's as she accepts the award. Will this be one given out in the audience? Methinks it will. Not much other competition unless Million Dollar Baby goes on a sweep run.
Best Sound Editing - Michael Silvers and Randy Thom for The Incredibles (Winner - The Incredibles)
This seems to be the all around favorite here and I see no reason to disagree. Interestingly enough, Thom is up for two films in this catagory - his other nomination for The Polar Express which will not win.
Best Sound Mixing - Tom Fleischman and Petur Hliddal for The Aviator (Winner - Ray)
Another technical win for the night. There is a chance that The Incredibles might take this too, but I doubt it. The only reason The Aviator does not win Sound Editing is because it is not nominated.
Best Original Score - Jan A.P. Kaczmarek for Finding Neverland (Winner - Finding Neverland)
I admit that this was a tough one to pick this year. You have perennial favorite John Williams for Harry Potter and I think John Debney's work on The Passion of the Christ was exceptional, but I think Finding Neverland will avoid the shut out here. As well, I have heard a snippet or two from the movie and it is very nice and certainly deserving.
Best Original Song - "Accidentally In Love" from Shrek 2 (Winner - Al Otro Lado Del Rio from The Motorcycle Diaries)
I have to admit, I was lost trying to pick this one this year. The Adam Duritz tune is very catchy though. I would think there might be some support for Andrew Lloyd Webber and the music from The Chorus is quite strong as well, but I think the Counting Crowes front man takes this one home.
Best Make-Up - Keith Vanderlaan and Christien Tinsley for The Passion of the Christ (Winner - Lemony Snicket's A Series of Unfortunate Events)
I really don't see how any other film could win here. The make-up in Mel Gibson's film is sublime, and heart-wrenching. I know it's no consolation, but if The Passion of the Christ wins at all, it will win here.
Best Visual Effects - Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (Winner - Spiderman 2)
I didn't list the myriad of people above simply because there are too many, but this film is far and away the finest of the three up for this catagory. Watching that Hippagryph (sp?) fly over the water was something else and this wins, hands down.
Best Animated Feature Film - The Incredibles (Winner - The Incredibles)
Another easy pick. From what I understand, Shark Tale does not even belong in the running and The Incredibles is far and away the finest of the bunch.
And now begins the always difficult part - the crapshoot. As usual, I've hardly ever seen anything in the running here save the odd documentary or short. Though I have seen Super Size Me (and it was good), I don't think it will win. Below are my picks:
Best Documentary Feature - Born Into Brothels (Winner - Born Into Brothels)
Best Documentary Short - Autism Is A World (Winner - Mighty Times: The Children's March)
Best Short Film, Animated - Birthday Boy (Winner - Ryan)
Best Short Film, Live Action - 7:35 In The Morning (Winner - Wasp)
Well, there you have it - down on the page and for the whole world to see. I really don't think I will do as well as I did last year, but one can hope. Tune back in Monday morning too see if I equaled the previous year or was entirely wrong. And Go Marty! That is all.
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