Hear the Hurd

2011 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot, Part II

In part II of the HoF ballot, I'll try to get the rest of the way there with the other 21 candidates.  Up next is:

 

Charles Johnson - No

940 hits; 167 HR; 570 RBI; .245 lifetime avg.

There are a number of good catchers on this years ballot, but I must admit I expected Johnsons numbers to be better.  I recall him as an excellent defensive catcher for the Marlin teams of the 90's and he was definitely on that '97 World Championship club.  He also had some pop at times, hitting 31 HR in 2000 splitting time between Baltimore and Chicago.  Four more times he hit 18 or more.  It was the avg. that hurt as he hit over .300 only once in that same year of 2000.  He was not a Hall of Famer.

Barry Larkin - Yes

2,340 hits; 198 HR; 960 RBI; 379 SB; .295 lifetime avg.

This is a year of quite a few 90's team anchors.  Larkin was the Reds' Cal Ripken.  He didn't get to the same numbers and did not have the power Ripken had, but Larkin was a bit of a middle man in the SS position.  He was a bit smaller than Ripken so he did not get lumped in with that big SS of the future like A-Rod, Garciaparra and Jeter did later.  Yet Larkin had more pop that a typical short-stop of that time.  And he could run.  And he could field.  The Wizard he was not, but 12 All Star nods go along with 3 gold gloves and 2 seasons in the top 10 in MVP voting, winning the award in 1995.  What Alomar above was for the American League, Larkin was to the National League during this time.  He entirely deserves to go into the Hall, though may have to wait a couple of years.

That was the comment last year and I am still amazed that he didn't get more attention in the voting.  Larkin was every bit the short stop that Alomar was a second baseman.  In fact, he was better.  I am afraid he won't get in again this year but I hope the Hall does not make him wait long.

Al Leiter - No

162-132 record; 3.80 ERA; 1,974 K

It is almost sad that I don't even waste a thought on Leiter's candidacy as he was a strong pitcher for a fairly long time.  He was certainly the better pitcher among the Leiter brothers.  But he never won 20.  In fact, he only won 15 or more 4 times in his career (19 seasons.)  He had some strong years late in his career, however, and should be remembered fondly by Mets fans.

Edgar Martinez - Yes

2,247 hits; 309 HR; 1,261 RBI; .312 lifetime avg.

The average says something, no doubt.  But as a lifetime DH, it is hard to really take stock of the player.  Without fielding, one must only look at the offensive numbers and frankly...they just don't add up.  I recall in the day, Martinez was the best at what he did.  For nearly a decade, Martinez anchored those Mariners teams.  As feared as he might have been, however, I just don't think his numbers stack up.  Is it something to say you were the best DH ever?  Maybe I just don't respect the position.

That is what I wrote last year as I said "No" on Edgar.  I have changed my mind.  Or better yet, others have done it for me.  When you consider that Edgar retired after 18 seasons with a line that looks like this - .312 AVG/.418 OBP/.515 SLG - you really have to think.  That is for a career.  Those numbers are excellent for a season and very few men have done that for their entire careers.  We are talking the cream of the baseball crop (men like Ruth, Gehrig and Williams.)  I admit, the DH thing still bugs me, but I can recognize a great hitter when I see one (or when I rethink his numbers) and Martinez was clearly one of the best hitters to ever play the game.  My vote has changed to "Yes."

Tino Martinez - No

1,925 hits; 339 HR; 1,271 RBI; .271 lifetime avg.

While he did a great job anchoring those great Yankee teams of the late 90's after coming over from Seattle, I cannot really say in any way that Tino was a Hall man.  Good player with a nice 5 year peak, but he does not belong with the elite.

Don Mattingly - No

2,153 hits; 222 HR; 1,099 RBI; .307 lifetime avg.

I'd love to say that the avg. helps Mattingly as certainly his 9 gold gloves suggest as well.  But his real numbers just don't add up.  Just because he anchored a decade of losing Yankees teams doesn't give him entrance into the HoF.  He had a very popular baseball card but that reputation just doesn't translate into a HoF career.  Sorry Donnie Baseball.

Fred McGriff - Yes

2,490 hits; 493 HR; 1,550 RBI; .284 lifetime avg

Hits and avg don't give him the credit he deserves.  Those 493 home runs do.  Between 1988 and 1994 McGriff hit over 30 home runs each season.  In fact, he had 7 additional seasons in which he hit at least 20 per year, 3 more times topping 30.  Six times he landed in the top 10 in MVP voting, getting as close as 4th in 1993.  It was a monster season and one that Braves fans will remember forever.  And while he doesn't have the gold gloves to show it, he was a pretty darn good 1st baseman.  I'll readily admit that the Crime Dog is a borderline hall of famer, but he should not be punished for not getting to 500 HR.  He remains a hall of fame player.

Mark McGwire - Yes

1,626 hits; 583 HR; 1,414 RBI; .263 lifetime avg.

If it were not for the 583 home runs, nobody would even discuss McGwire, frankly.  He was no stud on the defense and he only gets credit (rightly) for his home runs.  That he broke the record in 1998 gives him an added bonus, but without him so did Sammy Sosa and does anybody really think Sosa is a hall of famer?  That said, McGwire hit 49 home runs in his rookie season and if steroids are what is keeping you from looking at McGwire's actual career, then you need to look again.  This guy was a masher, and with Conseco and Eckersley, anchored those late 80's Oakland teams as well as the pre-Pujols Cardinals. He made a name for himself in the baseball world and so his numbers do not matter as much anymore.  You could liken him to Pete Rose or Sandy Koufax...either way, he belongs in the Hall.

That was last year.  My thoughts have not changed, but McGwire did come out and admit his PED usage as he transitioned to hitting coach for the Cardinals.  I doubt it will  help his Hall case and in fact, may hurt it with the way some voters wish to punish such players.  See Bagwell this year and he's never had any proof or insinuation that he used.  McGwire will likely have to wait a long time to get into the Hall if he ever does.

Raul Mondesi - No

1,589 hits; 271 HR; 860 RBI; .273 lifetime avg.

Here is another Dodger RoY on the ballot and one that should have ended up a HoF player.  From 1995 to 2001, he was a guy you wanted on your team hitting over 20 HR each year.  By 2005, he was completely washed up and a joke in the field and at the plate (trust me...I recall his short stay in Atlanta.)  Looks like it will be Piazza that finally gets a 90's Dodger RoY in the Hall.

Jack Morris - No

254-186 record; 3.90 lifetime ERA; 2,478 K; 175 complete games and 28 shutouts

There are two serious pitchers on this HoF ballot (again.)  When you compare Morris with Blyleven...well, is there really a comparison?  If Bert comes out ahead, and still has not gained entry to the HoF, then why should Morris expect anything more?  254 wins is impressive as is the 1991 World Series game 7 where he pitched 10 innings of shutout ball...the last time that happened in a WS game (or perhaps any other.)  I recall him very much, but then I am a Braves fan.  Was he a hall of famer?  I am not so sure.  That 3.90 lifetime ERA really smarts for his case.  But he has a case, I will grant you that.  I just would not vote for him...not right now at least.

Dale Murphy - Yes

2,111 hits; 398 HR; 1,266 RBI; .265 lifetime avg.

Bill James used a criteria some years back called the Keltner list.  It is based on a specific player's borderline stats and asks questions to see if a player really deserves enshrinement.  Of all the baseball blogs I visit, Mac Thomason's Braves Journal is the best for my team.  There he looks at Dale Murphy's Keltner list.  Of course I am a Braves fan, as well as a Murphy fan (actually met him in person at a Morman church in Roswell, GA where I grew up.)  Murphy deserves the distinction of being one of the top 2 or 3 players in his decade of the 80's, yet he is now considered borderline.  I've mentioned Albert Belle before but I bring it up again to discuss Murphy.  Belle ended his storied career with 381 HRs compared to Murphy's 398.  Belle had 1,239 RBI to Dale's 1,266.  Belle only had 1,726 hits to Murphy's 2,111.  But Belle only played for 12 seasons. Murphy played for 18.  If Belle is not a hall of famer (and he dropped off the ballot in his first year of appearance with only 19 votes or 3.5% of the vote) then Murphy is not.  I happen to think Belle is deserving, and thus so too is Murphy.  At least that is what makes sense as a Braves and baseball fan.  In truth, Murphy seems to fall in with Mattingly (and Larkin actually in a way) - so many years with one team, and the stud of that team, but not enough to gain entry.  The Hall of very, very (very) good.

John Olerud - No

2,239 hits; 255 HR; 1,230 RBI; .295 lifetime avg.

Olerud might get in just for that hat he wore at first base.  In truth, his numbers are actually better than I expected to see when I checked.  But as a first baseman, and with so many great ones coming down the pike soon (as well as on this same ballot) I cannot vote for Olerud.  I recall him with Toronto as his team broke my heart in 1992 and then later with the Mets.  Good guy, but not a Hall guy.

Rafael Palmeiro - Yes

3,020 hits (24th all-time); 569 HR (12th all-time); 1,835 RBI (15th all-time); .288 lifetime avg.

Recall the old time numbers that used to get a guy into the Hall?  Well, look above as those numbers should usher any other man right in.  There are only 3 other men that ever played the game that had at least 3,000 hits, 500 HR and 1,600 RBI.  Their names are Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Eddie Murray.  Not Barry Bonds.  Not Babe Ruth.  Not Stan Musial.  Not Ted Williams.  But Raffy did it.  Then add to that 4 All Star games, 3 gold gloves and landing in the top 20 in MVP voting ten different times during his career.  He's 79th all-time in WAR (a newer statistic but a good one) but outside of Scott Rolen immediately above him, the rest of the names are elite guys.  Finally, one must add his positive test for PEDs just a few years after wagging his finger at Congress as he flatly denied any such usage.  This man's case is a tough one and I can guarantee he will not be elected to the Hall in this or any other year by the writers.  I say that is a shame.  He may not have been the flashiest player, but he was sturdy in the manner of Aaron and that is how he compiled such awesome numbers.  I vote "Yes."

Dave Parker - No

2,712 hits; 339 HR; 1,493 RBI; .290 lifetime avg.

This guy is a hard one.  He reminds me much of Jim Rice with his numbers.  They are not as good as ballot-mate Harold Baines, but Parker played the field and at an earlier time.  He is not on the ballot much longer.  He also reminds a bit of Dick Allen, with a feared history but not enough numbers to seal the deal.  They are not quite the 3,000 hits you want to see, nor even at 400 HR.  Not getting to 1,500 RBI really kills his case as I didn't see him play in person.  But recall that Allen only played for 15 seasons.  Parker for 19.  Allen still had more HRs.  And both probably belong in the HoF.

That was last year's write up and with the ballot as huge as it is this year, I have to give that vote to another.  I wonder if Parker deals with this a lot.  He was a great player but remains borderline and my sympathies are occupied elsewhere this year.

Tim Raines - Yes

2,605 hits; 980 RBI; 808 SB (5th all time); .294 lifetime avg.

Rock Raines is the poor man's Rickey Henderson.  I really don't know anybody that argues that point.  If Rickey gets into the Hall, which he rightly has, then Raines needs to follow close after as he was nearly a carbon copy.  Perhaps the coke thing keeps him out.  Or perhaps people have not considered him fully just yet.  Either way, he belongs.

Kirk Rueter - No

130-92 record; 4.27 ERA; 818 K

The man is only on the ballot because he played for 13 years (a minimum of ten being required.)  He only won 15 or more games twice in that time.  Not meant for the Hall.

Benito Santiago - No

1,830 hits; 217 HR; 920 RBI; .263 lifetime avg.

Santiago had a neat trick of being able to throw guys out at second from his knees.  He was also excellent with a pitching staff.  An outstanding defensive catcher but not a man that built Hall numbers, even as a catcher.  He did hit 30 homers in 1996, but only hit .300 or better twice and never had 100 RBI for a season.  Rookie of the Year in 1987 and 5 All Star appearances seem to be his reward for a lengthy career solely as a catcher.

Lee Smith - No

71-92 record; 3.03 lifetime ERA; 478 saves (3rd all time); 1,251 K

The man that at one time owned the all time saves record, now he must compete with Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman.  He's not in the same company, though he is close.  If Sutter and Gossage are in the Hall, then so too should Smith see induction.  He really is part of that triumvirate.  And a 3.03 lifetime ERA...not bad for a reliever as he was for 18 seasons.

That was last year.  The ballot is much larger this time and frankly, there are more deserving guys.  I may vote for him in future when the ballot clears up some, but that will not happen for a while.

B.J. Surhoff - No

2,326 hits; 188 HR; 1,153 RBI; .282 lifetime avg.

Surhoff had a lengthy career as a pain in the ass.  That was the way the other teams looked at him, I am sure.  He was never great but always able to get a hit when the team needed it and drove the other team crazy.  He only hit 20 or more homers three times, however.  He was a good hitter but not a hall of famer.

Alan Trammell - No

2,365 hits; 185 HR; 1,003 RBI; 236 SB; .285 lifetime avg.

Look, I understand that Whitaker and Trammell were the double play combo for the AL during the 80's. They were like Stockton and Malone in the NBA.  Whitaker had but a day on the ballot.  Trammell has stayed as an early version of what Ripken made popular.  Yet I just do not see the numbers to justify his enshrinement.  Where Ripken had over 3,000 hits, Trammell never got near that number.  Where Cal had over 1,600 RBI, Trammell was not even close.  Ripken far outweighed him in homers.  Trammell only wins in avg. and perhaps gold gloves.  We know who the superior player is.  Trammell is not it.  Nor does he belong in the hall, at least on this ballot.

That was last year's write up and I still will not vote for Trammell this year.  However, I think he ultimately belongs in the Hall (so does Whitaker, probably.)  He may need to be a Vets guy.

Larry Walker - No

2,160 hits; 383 HR; 1,311 RBI; .313 lifetime avg.

Walker is another guy that I might give more of a look if the ballot was not so large this year.  MVP in '97, he was also in the top 10 in voting 3 other times.  He won 7 gold gloves in his career and went to 5 All Star games.  He was a hell of a hitter, leading his league three times over his career.  I will grant you that he is borderline (and that is why he does not get my vote this year) but he deserves some more scrutiny over time and I hope he remains on the ballot in future years so he gets a solid second look.

* * *

And there it is.  My full ballot looks like this:

Roberto Alomar

Jeff Bagwell

Bert Blyleven

Barry Larkin

Edgar Martinez

Fred McGriff

Mark McGwire

Dale Murphy

Rafael Palmiero

Tim Raines

 

Only allowed ten votes so some good players must wait - Baines, Morris, Parker, Smith, Trammell and Walker.  I suspect all will continue to have their champions in years to come (well, except perhaps Baines...I think I am the only person that actually thinks he may deserve a spot in the Hall.) 

Results will be announced January 5, 2011.  I suspect that only Alomar and Blyleven will be elected this year.  Maybe Bagwell if he is lucky.  I cannot see anyone else getting there considering their numbers last year (Morris and Larkin will not move from the 50% range to 75% that quickly.)  And if you want some idea of what future years might look like, please revisit my post from last year looking at the Hall future.  The ballot will remain crowded for some years to come.  That is all.

2011 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Time again for the Hall of Fame voting and much like every year, this is a time I enjoy as I pour over stats of players since retired but still somewhat fresh on my mind.  And of course there are the carry overs that have their various detractors and champions.  I do not have a HoF vote, but if I did it may go a little something like this:

 

Roberto Alomar - Yes

2,724 hits; 474 SB; 1,134 RBI; .300 lifetime avg.

He has lower numbers for what used to be the typical hall of famer, but recall he was a second baseman.  He only had 210 HR, but I recall him coming up with a few well timed dingers.  Mostly, however, he was just a hitter and a feared one.  Feared because he knew how to swing the bat.  He wasn't half bad as a fielder too.  He was the clear best second baseman of his age for a lengthy period which is what the Hall tends to reward.  I think it's likely a first year entry as long as the spitting incident doesn't hurt him.  I don't think it will at this late date.

That's what I wrote last year.  He did not get in that time, but I still say yes and I think he will get in this year.  Sometimes the Hall just likes to make a player wait.  I am fairly certain that DiMaggio did not get in on the first ballot.  Huh???

Carlos Baerga - No

1,583 hits; 134 HR; 774 RBI; .291 lifetime avg.

You know, I recall Baerga being a better second baseman than his stats suggest.  14 seasons and only 1,583 hits.  Didn't steal that many bases and his defense wasn't THAT good.  His career took a huge dive at the end and one might suspect the dreaded steroids if he had a more sustained power game.  As it is he topped 20 only twice in '92 and '93.

Jeff Bagwell - Yes

2,314 hits; 449 HR; 1,529 RBI; .297 lifetime avg.

I could easily add to the above, the only first baseman to have not just one but two 30/30 seasons.  Any thought that Bagwell is not a hall of famer is completely misplaced.  The only other first baseman I might take above Bags during the 90s might have been Frank Thomas.  But we'll get to him in a few years.  For now recognize that not only was Bagwell an above average defender for most of his career, he was also a beast at the plate before an arthritic shoulder took him down.  He played 15 seasons prior to that and complied some damn fine numbers.  Unfortunately, it is his first year on the ballot and recent years have taught that it may not happen for him this year.  That would be a damn shame!

Harold Baines - No

2,866 hits; 384 HR; 1,628 RBI, .289 lifetime avg.

Baines has always been a bit of a quandary.  His numbers look fairly good if not quite up to par for a hall of famer.  The RBI speak out but the HR are low, especially for a man who played for a long time (22 seasons.)  He was a bit of a statue in the field from what I recall, and extended his career for quite some time as a DH.  While he used to look good to me for the Hall, another full time DH enters the ballot this year which offers a clear comparison.  We'll look at those below but this year I have to say no to Harold Baines in the Hall.

That was last year's take and since Edgar didn't make it, I suspect Baines will not either.  I admit, I waffle on him from time to time, but the ballot is starting to fill up as I mentioned last year this time and Baines will continue to fall.

Bert Blyleven - Yes

287-250 record; lifetime ERA of 3.31; 3,701 K (5th on the all time list); 242 complete games and 60 shutouts (last time you'll see those numbers)

The record must be what has kept Blyleven out of the Hall all these years.  Otherwise I cannot figure it out.  When he first got on the ballot, he was actually 3rd all time in strikeouts.  Johnson and Clemens rightfully passed him but his numbers still speak up there.  And I think everyone knows by now that his record is more a reflection on his teams than it is on himself.  Years with losing teams will make a record look like that.  Recall the argument with Phil Neikro, and to a lesser extent Nolan Ryan, was that you had to be a really good pitcher to lose that many games.  That he came up 13 wins shy of 300 should not penalize him.  Blyleven belongs in the Hall.  Now.

Bret Boone - No

1,775 hits; 252 HR; 1,021 RBI; .266 life time avg.

Boone comes out a lot better than Baerga above, but when considered alongside Alomar still looking in from the outside, one could not justify a vote for him.  And even without that modifier, Boone still does not belong.  He has some good power numbers for a second baseman, but his hits remain low as does his average.  He did win a few gold gloves and was 3rd in MVP voting in 2001.  He was scrappy, from what I recall, but not a HoF guy.

Kevin Brown - No

211-144 lifetime record; 3.28 ERA; 2,397 K (good for 38th all time)

Brown will be a tough one for a lot of people.  He is not really for me.  He pitched 19 years and only won 20 games once.  He never won a Cy Young.  He is really best remember for his ginormous contract that did not pay off for the various clubs that ended up paying for it.  Maybe I hold his last years as a Yankee against him, but while I respected Brown, I never considered him a hall of fame guy.  I look at his numbers now and I still don't see it.  A lot of people say the same thing about Blyleven above, but 287 beats 211 anytime.  Brown was good, but not that good.

John Franco - No

90-87 record; 2.89 ERA; 424 saves (4th all time)

It would be tempting to vote for Franco as I did sometimes consider him for this place.  As it is now, the ballot is huge and even if he was borderline, I could not vote for him this year with a 10 player limit.  However, I must admit now that should the number of players one can vote for becomes as many as I want, I still would not vote for Franco. Lee Smith is 3rd all time, and he's not in.  And below Franco is Billy Wagner and I'm not sure I'd vote for him as a Hall of Famer either.  Relievers are still a very tough call.

Juan Gonzalez - No

1,936 hits; 434 HR; 1,404 RBI; .295 lifetime avg.

Juan Gone has some interesting stats and a few monster seasons capped by his two MVPs (that some call undeserved.)  What he also carries with him is the reeking stench of steroids.  While I do not try and base my thoughts on that alone, I cannot remove it from my mind as I ponder what his stats might look like without using.  What is more, even if Gonzalez did not use?  He still does not belong.  17 years and he didn't break 2,000 hits.  The old time stats for a Hall guy are 3000 hits, 500 HR and 1600 RBI.  Right or wrong, Gonzalez does not reach those unlike another proven steroid guy on this ballot.

Marquis Grissom - No

2,251 hits; 227 HR; 967 RBI; 429 SB; .272 lifetime avg.

As a Braves fan, I loved Marquis back in the day.  He was a great center fielder while he played for the team but for his career, he began to tail off rather quickly.  Still, he had five seasons of over 20 HR which is great for a center fielder.  He stole over 400 bases, three times stealing 50 or more in a season and two of those were 76 and 78 bases stolen in '91 and '92.  Moreover, Grissom was a member of that awesome '94 Montreal Expos team that will go down as the greatest team to never win a damn thing (and the one that was not allowed to break Atlanta's division winning streak.)  Still, he does not quite live up to the Hall standards as he lacks the hits a lead-off type of guy requires.

Lenny Harris - No

1,055 hits; 37 HR; 369 RBI; .269 lifetime average

Harris is on this list because he was a hell of a pinch hitter.  However, I have never seen a pinch hitter specialist make it into the hall on that basis alone.  It won't happen this year either.

Bobby Higginson - No

1,336 hits; 187 HR; 709 RBI; .272 lifetime avg.

I recall when Higginson came up.  He was supposed to be a super star.  As it was, he was serviceable and actually ended up playing his entire career for one team, the Detroit Tigers.  I admit I am at a loss as to why his career tailed off so precipitously in 2005.  He only made it 11 years.  Maybe he made his money (around $52 million all told) and went home.  Whatever the reason, he was not a Hall of Famer.

 

* * *

With a total of 33 guys on the ballot this year (and with 1500 words or so already spilled over the above 12), I'll return to this before the results are announced.  I'll have them out by the end of the weekend.  21 more guys to go and some definite Hall bound guys to look at.  Until next time, that is all.

 

The Uggla Trade

It's been a few days since the Uggla trade and the ramifications start to kick in, I'd think.  There is no doubt that the Braves gained a premier 2nd baseman, but it does not solve LF...or CF for that matter.  Make no mistake...the Braves added an excellent addition to the ballclub (and addition by subtraction as well if you consider how much Uggla killed us as a Marlin) but I have to say I am somewhat suspect of placing Martin Prado in LF and standing pat. 

A loss of Infante is no great harm, even if he might throw us some terrible "Wes Helms" or "Adam Wainwright" type hell from time to time.  He was not an everyday player.  Dunn was young and wild.  It was a steal to gain Dan Uggla for that price.  I cannot complain when the team gains a terrific RH hitter with power at second base when we've needed that exact offensive upgrade for some time.  Uggla will do well in the middle of this order.  His defense is suspect but you gain a super upgrade on defense at 1st.  Freeman will be at least as good as Lee...count it.  How he does on the offense is another question.

What we have now looks like this:

C- Brian McCann

1st - Freddy Freeman

2nd - Dan Uggla

3rd - Chipper Jones

SS - Alex Gonzalez

RF - Jason Heyward

CF - Nate McLouth

LF - Martin Prado

With that, I guess you look at a line-up of -

1. Prado 2. Jones 3. Heyward 4. McCann 5. Uggla 6. Freeman 7. Gonzalez 8. McClouth 9. Pitcher

It's not a bad lineup, but I'd still love to have a good outfielder out there on a daily basis to back up Heyward...and not just on offense.  I cannot quibble with Wren's decision to trade, but I wonder why the team might sit still when there still seems a glaring hole in the outfield. 

I had five issues that the team needed to really cover before next season. 

1. Will Chipper be able to play?  The answer is still up in the air.  There is an assumption that Prado will be able to cover.  He should not do so every day. DRAW

2. The Infante question is now moot.  We traded that for Dan Uggla.  Prado moves to super utility man. WIN

3. The CF question seems to have settled upon McLouth.  I am not satisfied. LOSE

4. Prado moves to LF and supposedly plays there (or has) in the winter leagues.  I am suspect on first glance. DRAW

5. As suspected, A-Gon will be back at SS.  He will show some flashes of brilliance with the glove and drop a few as well.  I doubt his bat will be as potent in 2011. DRAW

If this trade is the last "big" move before next season, I have to say Wren will have failed.  But he has succeeded beyond many expectations by this point so I have to take a wait and see attitude.  The last two years have proved he is capable of covering the holes.  It's the holes to start that make me worry.  April doesn't really matter...until October.  That is all.

2010 Braves Postmortem

I don't blame Derek Lowe.  I don't blame Brooks Conrad.  I don't blame Melky Cabrera.  And I certainly don't blame Bobby Cox!  My immediate blame was in the 5 game series that poorly decides the Division Series, but in the end, I can blame no one.  This was easily the best Braves season I have watched since 2005 and frankly, this club reminds me more of some 90's clubs...up and coming and ready to start a new dynasty.  Or a few postseason runs at least.

Derek Lowe pitched his heart out in Bobby Cox's last game and for that, Bobby allowed him one more hitter.  Who is to say that he's pulled before he walks Burrell and we're out of it?  The next guy could easily give up a HR, even with our bullpen.  But if Kimbrel isn't taken out in Game 3, we might have won that one too.  If, if, if...if Chipper and Prado and Wagner and Medlin and JJ and...well, you know where that argument goes.  If those guys are healthy, then Conrad never ends up with 3 errors in a very important game.  But maybe Chipper makes a poor play because he's playing on bad legs...which he most certainly would have had would he not have gone on the DL.  Prado was already walking wounded.  So was Wagner, in some ways.  Medlin hurt, no doubt.  And JJ...well, I just hope the kid comes back strong next year.  There are tons of injuries that have hampered this team all season, and if they can get this far on fumes, let's just consider what they might do next year when healthy.  If only.

It will take some time before next year's roster will take shape, but you can be sure Heyward will be in RF barring some unfortunate offseason injury (keep him locked in carbonite, please), Freeman will most likely take on 1st, Prado will likely be back at 2nd and McCann will certainly be at catcher with Ross backing up.  Venters, Kimbrel and Dunn are locked up.  Moylan should likely be back, depending on arbitration and one would think O'Flaherty.  Lowe is scheduled for 2 more years and JJ, Hanson and Hudson will all be back as well.

Medlin will take some time to come back and there is plenty in the pipeline to throw in there should we need a starting pitcher with Beachy having already impressed.  The biggest issues to look at are Chipper's ability starting next season; finding a place for Infante to play (and perhaps not every day - getting him back to super sub should be a priority); finding a steady center and left fielder; and deciding on Alex Gonzalez over some substitute.  What that might be, I don't know.  I'll admit that he shows some flashes of brilliance with the glove, but he drops them these days too.  His bat is...not the best.

One might hope we could start with something like this:

C - Brian McCann

1st - Freddy Freeman (he's playing in the Arizona Fall League)

2nd - Martin Prado

3rd - Chipper Jones

SS - Alex Gonzalez (he's under contract for one more year)

RF - Jason Heyward

CF - ?

LF - ?

 

SP - Tim Hudson

SP - Derek Lowe

SP - Tommy Hanson

SP - Jair Jurjjens

SP - Mike Minor/Brandon Beachy or some other

Closer - Kimbrel or Venters (both tutored by Billy Wagner)

And plenty of other pen.

I should mention the bench will keep Diaz most likely (he has some arbitration, I believe), McLouth and maybe Ankiel (not certain on his contract terms).  Where Melky ends up...I really don't care.  I held out hope he'd show some promise, but it just didn't happen.

I'd love to somehow keep Lee but he'd be too much money when we have other needs.  Freeman is known for being a good defender.  I suspect Conrad will be back even with his goat image.  I hope he gets out of the funk early on.  And then there is Chipper.  I firmly believe he'll make a strong attempt to come back but even if he does, I suspect he will not be playing in 140 games.  Not even 100, likely.  When not in there, Infante/Prado can cover but a better option for infield back-up is needed over Brooksie and Diory Hernandez.  If it is likely that Chipper cannot go after spring training, something more drastic needs to happen.  Prado should not be the everyday 3rd baseman, nor should Infante be the everyday 2nd baseman.

Plenty of off-season to think about it but here is where we say goodbye to a few folks that will not be back.  Bobby Cox?  What can I say about the man.  I could type an entirely separate post for that and may someday but for now I can only say he's a class act with some screwy management skills at times.  He's always been a season manager, not a postseason manager.  But he got back there his last year and the way the Phillies are playing (and the way we played them in our last 6 games) we almost certainly would not have made it all the way.  Almost the best way to go out if we could not get a win in his last game.  We did in the regular season.  I look forward to his day in Cooperstown.  Wouldn't it be something to see him inducted along with Maddux and Glavine?  Not sure the timing works.

And let me also say a terribly sad goodbye to Billy Wagner.  He debuted just a few years after I started really following baseball and has beat up on my teams for years.  When he joined us, I finally figured out why.  He is a special player and has had a tremendous influence on the growth of the bullpen he leaves behind.  If we cannot get Maddux as a pitching coach, the Braves could do a hell of a lot worse than signing Wags up for the role.  Not sure he makes the HoF given the weird closer thing, but he has some solid credentials and I am near 100% certainty that had he been able to close out Game 3, we would have been up 2-1 last night.  What a finale, Billy!

I also say goodbye to Glaus and Lee.  Troy had a hell of a month and a half and he deserves every bit of glory for his exploits.  It was sad to see him crumble and he had one last great moment with the double play in Game 2.  And Lee?  I could be roundly dismissive of what he brought to the table with his bat if his glove wasn't so damn smooth.  I was so excited when we got him even with the bad back.  I'd seen his track record up close many times.  But he just didn't bring his A game with him at the plate.  But on defense?  It was a great comfort knowing he was manning the bag.

For all the injuries suffered, games lost in terrible ways, bone headed plays by various players and strange decisions at times flowing from the dugout...this was one hell of a season.  I enjoyed nearly every bit of it and can only hope that next year sees one more step towards that ultimate goal - winning a World Series.  Thank you 2010 Braves and let's get 'em next year.  This time around, I have zero qualms throwing my weight behind the Giants.  Too long since they won a World Series and never in the city of San Francisco.  'Bout time, I say!  That is all.

Braves: Buyers or Sellers?

With the trading deadline arriving in a little over a week, we should take a look at where things stand with the Braves and ask - is there a reasonable chance for them to make the playoffs this year and if not, should the team sell off its high priced players to get some investment in return?  The team currently sits 5 games under .500 and 6 games out of 1st.  The two would seem unlikely to go together but there you have it.  There is a reasonable thought that a hot streak or two such as the one Colorado went on last year could push the Braves to the top.

But their play suggests otherwise and there are a few valuable pieces on the team that can pull much needed players via trade.  If we cannot compete this year, we should certainly look to next year.  And that's where my gut is heading.  With Smoltz down for the year, the starters doing a workable job right now, and basically only Chipper and McCann perfoming for the offense, I just don't see the team pulling it all together.  I don't think this means the team cannot compete next year or the year after.  There are still crucial pieces left on the team, namely Chipper when healthy, McCann, some lights out closers if they can stay healthy and of course, Hudson and maybe even Smoltz. 

One might ask what of Tex?  He won't be back next year so it's a moot point.  And I am tempted to say he is the one most likely to be traded to pull in some outfield or pitching depth.  I wouldn't say I am in complete seller mode as I don't want to trade away potential difference makers this year just to do so.  But if someone comes calling with the right package, I think the Braves should seriously look at such a deal.  The truth is, we are not competing right now, as sad as it is. 

But there is a chance next year.  We need outfielders and starting pitching (or will) and goodness knows we have some folks others covet.  Frank Wren needs to look at such seriously and not stand on pride.  And we certainly don't need to be trading away young talent to try and win it all this year.  We tried last year and it did not work.  Let's be realistic.  I hate to give up on a season, but one must face facts.  The Phillies are a better team.  Case closed.  It's time to look towards the future and if we can find a deal that helps such look brighter, then we should swing it.  More later as the deadline nears.  That is all.

A Look Back at My 2007 Baseball Preseason Picks

Well, how'd I do?  You can see my preseason picks post right here and then compare to the actual standings for today (with one game actually still left to go between Colorado and San Diego.)

But let's look at them side by side for a second - first my picks with the actual standings in red:

American League East

• Boston Red Sox
• New York Yankees (and wild card)
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Tampa Bay Devil Rays (Baltimore)
• Baltimore Orioles (Tampa Bay)

Not bad.  I only flipped Baltimore and Tampa Bay - an easy mistake.  I knew picking Boston to win it would pay off eventually.  Now for the central,

American League Central

• Detroit Tigers (Cleveland)
• Cleveland Indians* (Detroit)
• Chicago White Sox (Minnesota)
• Minnesota Twins (Chicago)
• Kansas City Royals

Well, that didn't turn out near as well.  This was a tight division for most of the season with Cleveland really only running away with things near the end.  The top three teams, at least, are still very good teams and all four should continue to be in the hunt for the next few seasons.  Now for the west,

American League West

• Anaheim Angels of California in Los Angeles
• Oakland Athletics (Seattle)
• Seattle Mariners (Oakland)
• Texas Rangers

I got the Angels right at least.  I admit, Seattle did a bit better than I expected and Oakland, not so much.  But the Angels are the class of the division even if I don't think they'll go much further this year.  Now to the National League,

National League East

• Philadelphia Phillies
• Atlanta Braves* (New York)
• New York Mets (Atlanta)
• Florida Marlins (Washington)
• Washington Natspos (Florida)

Well, I got the order wrong but I did pick the winner, even if it was a surprise to everyone else but me and Jimmy Rollins.  I can't say I am extremely happy about it (since the Braves aren't sitting in first place) but if we can't go, I just as soon not see the Mets go either and their collapse was a thing of beauty!  To the central,

National League Central

• Milwaukee Brewers (Chicago)
• Chicago Cubs (Milwaukee)
• St. Louis Cardinals
• Houston Astros
• Pittsburgh Pirates (Cincinnati)
• Cincinnati Reds (Pittsburgh)

Would you look at how close I came?  Believe me, I am happy about the Cubs, but for most of the season I looked prescient as hell!  And the west,

National League West

• San Diego Padres (Arizona)
• Los Angeles Dodgers (?)
• Arizona Diamondbacks (?)
• San Francisco Giants (Los Angeles)
• Colorado Rockies (San Francisco)

Whatever those questions marks end up being, I am still wrong.  The craziest thing is my picked winner and worst team are the two about to fight it out over the wild card, which of course I also picked wrong.  Well, you can't win them all.

It's been a good season, for the most part.  But the last several weeks have been pure hell.  The Braves barely played like a major league team for two or three weeks and cost themselves a National League East division title.  And a good reason why was Renteria going down.  He had been the glue that held this team together all year.  The most insane thing as that Braves fans are already climbing on board the bandwagon to trade him for a number 3 starter, as if he could fetch that all by himself.  Why would we trade our most consistent hitter and offensive player when inconsistency has plagued the team coming down the stretch?  That just makes no sense.

I am happy for the Cubs and certainly happy to see Boston finally take the division itself from New York, but those damn Yankees got in again.  Hrmph!  What's worse, I think they'll go far.  I am rooting for San Diego tonight, but a problem arises there - they have to throw Peavy thus taking him out of the short five game series that would follow if they win.  He could pitch again, but late and perhaps after the team is down a game or two.  It simply messes their entire rotation up and that is what San Diego is counting on to make their run.

I'll have to return after we know exactly who is playing who in the postseason.  I have most of my picks already done and it simply remains to see if old Mad Dog goes back to the playoffs or if Colorado's miracle finish continues.  It has been an exciting finish for many teams.  I just wish the Braves were included in that bunch.  I mean, even Chipper missed out on the batting title.  Topped off with the end of a run for TBS as the Braves flagship station, and this is actually a pretty sad time.  Well, I'll cry later.  For now, there is still some baseball to play.  That is all.