Hear the Hurd

2011 Braves at the midpoint

I try to do a post every year looking at the Braves at the midpoint, or All Star break, to see how the team is doing.  What my feelings are seem to be different than what is on the page...or the stats.  I've viewed much of the first half as a failure in many ways...the team not performing as expected (Uggla, Heyward, injuries a plenty.)  But the standings say differently.  These Braves are one of the top four teams in all of baseball.

What to make of it?  Let's take it by position as I normally do,

Catcher - Brian McCann has been the man this year.  Ross as back-up rarely leaves anything on the table.  'Nuff said. Plus.

1st Base - Freeman has been this year's Heyward without the injuries.  And plus, plus defense.  This Brave could actually win the ROY. Plus.

2nd Base - Uggla has left a lot to be desired this year, especially after signing that contract after the trade.  His power is still there to a point, but his average is way down.  He seems like he is picking up some steam and we can only hope that is true.  Hold.

SS - Alex Gonzalez has been steady if not productive.  If we could find a better SS, we could certainly do better.  He still has it on defense but where are those power numbers from last year?  Toronto?  Hold

3rd Base - With Chipper down, Prado steps up hopefully.  It will take some time to see if he is back or still hurting.  I won't count his poor numbers during rehab against him.  Thankfully Chipper is back within weeks.  But I said last year - Prado should not be playing 3rd every day.  That madness leads to Conrad at 2nd.  Hold for now.

RF - Heyward is trying to come back into his own.  It is always a learning process and I think his is well on his way.  Sophomore slump, sure, but the man still has plenty of talent. Plus

CF - Here is the place to upgrade if we replace an everyday player.  The two we run out there everyday have some issues, no doubt about it.  McLouth has proved some usefulness this year finally, and Schafer has had his moments, but this is definitely a Minus.

LF - Same thing here, I am afraid.  He have some warm bodies to fill the hole, but Prado moving to 3rd causes McLouth and Schafer to play together too often.  Because of the bench, I'll give this a Hold.

Starting Pitching - Excellent!  What else can I say?  I could get on Lowe and Hudson if I wanted to, but I don't.  Old men getting it done.  Good on them for it.  Thankfully the system is stocked and JJ, Hanson and Beachy/Minor/etc. is getting it done even better. Plus.

Relief Pitching - Steller.  Venters has had a set back or two of late, but Gonzalez uses him a lot.  Kimbrel has been amazing especially given his some time wildness.  There are holes here, however, and given the workload of the big four or five (and Moylan coming back soon from surgery) the team likely needs a fresh body.  Still, Plus.

Bench - Another strength.  Management has done well to mitigate the various injuries and the farm teams seemed stocked.  Still...championship teams often have that one guy that has been around forever.  Chipper may be that man on this team, but often it is a bench player.  I'd like to see one more steady and veteran bat on the bench. I still say Plus.

 

I suppose I should say a word or two about Gonzalez as manager.  His overuse of the bullpen is a sickness, but managers go with the hot hand and we have some good ones.  Outside of that, he seems very much in line with Bobby Cox - a player's manager.  The Braves are in line for winning the division depending on how the second half goes.  I'd say that is a success.  Given the Phillies starters, I am happy.  Never liked the wild card, but I am willing to take it if it means getting this team into the playoffs.  I am not certain we will lose the division, but even if we have to take the cheap route, this team can deliver.  It is very talented and as stated, stocked in the minors.  This could be a very happy October.  That is all.

4th of July, 2011

Every year, it's nice to do something to remember this day and what it means to us as a nation.  Having looked at various aspects of the holiday before, I thought it might be interesting to remind that not only do we celebrate the birth of a nation on the 4th, but so too the deaths of two of its greatest founders - Jefferson and Adams.  The two both died on this day in 1826, hours apart.  Adams final words were, "Thomas Jefferson survives" when in fact, Thomas Jefferson had predeceased his friend.  A rivalry to the final breath.

It's also important to note that Adams himself, among the many things he brought this country, was perhaps the first to suggest we celebrate this day in the manner in which we do.  In a letter to his wife Abigail he discusses his thoughts for what the 4th means,

"The Second Day of July 1776, will be the most memorable Epocha, in the History of America. I am apt to believe that it will be celebrated, by succeeding Generations, as the great anniversary Festival. It ought to be commemorated, as the Day of Deliverance by solemn Acts of Devotion to God Almighty. It ought to be solemnized with Pomp and Parade, with Shews, Games, Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires and Illuminations from one End of this Continent to the other from this Time forward forever more. You will think me transported with Enthusiasm but I am not. I am well aware of the Toil and Blood and Treasure, that it will cost Us to maintain this Declaration, and support and defend these States. Yet through all the Gloom I can see the Rays of ravishing Light and Glory. I can see that the End is more than worth all the Means. And that Posterity will tryumph in that Days Transaction, even altho We should rue it, which I trust in God We shall not."

We have celebrated thusly ever since as I am sure many and most of you will do today (and tomorrow...and hopefully every day!) Allow me to add a little reminder as well...this is what we celebrate:

When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature's God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.--That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, --That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.--Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government.

I am so very grateful for my country and grateful to the men and women that defend her.  Happy birthday, United States of America.  I hope it's a great day for all.  That is all.

R.I.P. Rebekah Brokaw

I have learned that one of the smartest, sweetest, prettiest, and talented people I know has passed from this earth.  Rebekah Brokaw has passed away.  She died of an embolism while in hospital.  I loved her as a friend for many, many years though we lost touch a time or two.  I loved her as a woman, to be sure.  And I loved her as an intellect, as she was one of the smartest people I have ever known. 

The Rebekah I knew was a woman of warm spirit, intellectual curiosity, immensely spiritual and sometimes liking the wild side of life.  She had her foibles just like the rest of us.  If you are reading this, you likely knew her.  She was not afraid.  Beka faced life as it came to her and given her symptoms as bi-polar was often given to making tough choices.  I applauded her choice to move towards Christ as she grew older and I know full well that she is happier there than here.  It is not like that for us, however.  We must live with her loss.

I loved this woman.  I have known Rebekah for many years and tried many times to keep our relationship current.  It is hard today with so many of us living our own lives to keep up with those we care about.  And I feel I have left Rebekah down once again (she could tell you some stories.)  She was special to me and I only hope that she still thinks the same of me right now…wherever she is.  I love you, Bek.  And I miss you!!!  Rest in peace, sweet girl.

 

That is all.

Sidney Lumet, R.I.P.

I feel rather bad waiting a few days after the man passed away but the great Sidney Lumet is gone from us and we will not see another film from him.  This is truly a shame.

Let me give you a list of some of his best works:

 

1957 – 12 Angry Men

1959 - The Fugitive Kind

1962 – Long Day’s Journey Into Night

1964 – The Pawnbroker

1964 – Fail-Safe

1973 – Serpico

1974 – Murder on the Orient Express

1975 – Dog Day Afternoon

1976 – Network

1977 – Equus

1978 – The Wiz

1982 – Deathtrap

1982 – The Verdict

1984 – Garbo Talks

1986 – The Morning After

1988 – Running on Empty

1990 – Q & A

2007 – Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead

 

I don't know about you, but this list presents a damn fine example of cinema of the late 20th century (and some time after.)  He may not have been the flashiest of directors, but you always felt like you'd get a "good film" from him.  The list above pretty much proves that.  Each film seemed to have a heart that does not exist today (though see his last film...please!)  Hollywood may be bankrupt now, but it was not always that way.  Please watch one of the above films if you have not seen it before.  It can only do the industry good.  Rest in peace to a GREAT director.  That is all.

2011 Oscar Picks

Those that follow this blog in any way (yes, all you three and a half people) will no doubt have noticed that I have been terribly remiss in offering up any sort of Oscar talk this year.  Your humble blogger purchased a house in December and some things have changed in the day to day workings of the Hurd.  That does not mean that I have not noticed this years crop of nominated films, but I've truly been too busy to actually care.  I'd love to put up some picks, especially as I've seen at least one of the nominated films (Inception, which I thought was brilliant) but I do not seem to have the energy to try and go nominee by nominee as I usually might.  That said, I will at least put up a listing of the major winners - Best Picture and all that:

 

Best Picture - The King's Speech

Best Actor - Colin Firth for The King's Speech

Best Actress - Natalie Portman for Black Swan

Best Supporting Actor - Christian Bale for The Fighter

Best Supporting Actress - Melissa Leo for The Fighter

Best Director - Tom Hooper for The King's Speech

 

Beyond that, I don't know that I can really make any sort of educated guess.  I do see some ground swell of support for The King's Speech out there (though notably one Christopher Hitchens has not let his cancer keep him from finding a cause to support - or in this case deny as he has major problems with the historical accuracy of the film) and while it seemed that The Social Network was the front runner, it is hard to tell now which one has the real support.

I do look at the above winners and see all first time winners if it comes out that way.  Nothing wrong with that and all four actors, at least, have been deserving more times than I can think.  Bale and Portman have impressed me since Empire of the Sun and The Professional respectively.  And it is really a shame that this might be Firth's first Oscar.  The man has been doing it and doing it well for years!  He is the best shot at winning, if you are betting.

There will be no live blog this year as I just want to sit back and enjoy it.  I feel slightly bad that I have let down a bit of a tradition since I've written so much over the years on the Oscars, but with all that is going on right now, it's time for some sitting back and relaxing. I will be watching however, and may very well have an afterthoughts post the next day (which is likely when the damn thing will end...with Speilberg announcing Best Picture, I am to understand.)

I do have one MAJOR complaint about this years awards ceremony...why did they put all the honorary awards in a separate dinner?  Coppola is receiving the Irving Thalberg award this year and I would love to see his acceptance speech!  Godard received an honorary award this year as well and he refused to come to the dinner.  It's a shame Hollywood doesn't understand what is truly great about the town.  It's all about the kids and their Benjamins now, apparently.  Sigh. 

UPDATE - Also getting an honorary award is the great Eli Wallach (95 years young!)  You can catch his awesome acceptance speech right here. 

That is all.

2011 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot, Part II

In part II of the HoF ballot, I'll try to get the rest of the way there with the other 21 candidates.  Up next is:

 

Charles Johnson - No

940 hits; 167 HR; 570 RBI; .245 lifetime avg.

There are a number of good catchers on this years ballot, but I must admit I expected Johnsons numbers to be better.  I recall him as an excellent defensive catcher for the Marlin teams of the 90's and he was definitely on that '97 World Championship club.  He also had some pop at times, hitting 31 HR in 2000 splitting time between Baltimore and Chicago.  Four more times he hit 18 or more.  It was the avg. that hurt as he hit over .300 only once in that same year of 2000.  He was not a Hall of Famer.

Barry Larkin - Yes

2,340 hits; 198 HR; 960 RBI; 379 SB; .295 lifetime avg.

This is a year of quite a few 90's team anchors.  Larkin was the Reds' Cal Ripken.  He didn't get to the same numbers and did not have the power Ripken had, but Larkin was a bit of a middle man in the SS position.  He was a bit smaller than Ripken so he did not get lumped in with that big SS of the future like A-Rod, Garciaparra and Jeter did later.  Yet Larkin had more pop that a typical short-stop of that time.  And he could run.  And he could field.  The Wizard he was not, but 12 All Star nods go along with 3 gold gloves and 2 seasons in the top 10 in MVP voting, winning the award in 1995.  What Alomar above was for the American League, Larkin was to the National League during this time.  He entirely deserves to go into the Hall, though may have to wait a couple of years.

That was the comment last year and I am still amazed that he didn't get more attention in the voting.  Larkin was every bit the short stop that Alomar was a second baseman.  In fact, he was better.  I am afraid he won't get in again this year but I hope the Hall does not make him wait long.

Al Leiter - No

162-132 record; 3.80 ERA; 1,974 K

It is almost sad that I don't even waste a thought on Leiter's candidacy as he was a strong pitcher for a fairly long time.  He was certainly the better pitcher among the Leiter brothers.  But he never won 20.  In fact, he only won 15 or more 4 times in his career (19 seasons.)  He had some strong years late in his career, however, and should be remembered fondly by Mets fans.

Edgar Martinez - Yes

2,247 hits; 309 HR; 1,261 RBI; .312 lifetime avg.

The average says something, no doubt.  But as a lifetime DH, it is hard to really take stock of the player.  Without fielding, one must only look at the offensive numbers and frankly...they just don't add up.  I recall in the day, Martinez was the best at what he did.  For nearly a decade, Martinez anchored those Mariners teams.  As feared as he might have been, however, I just don't think his numbers stack up.  Is it something to say you were the best DH ever?  Maybe I just don't respect the position.

That is what I wrote last year as I said "No" on Edgar.  I have changed my mind.  Or better yet, others have done it for me.  When you consider that Edgar retired after 18 seasons with a line that looks like this - .312 AVG/.418 OBP/.515 SLG - you really have to think.  That is for a career.  Those numbers are excellent for a season and very few men have done that for their entire careers.  We are talking the cream of the baseball crop (men like Ruth, Gehrig and Williams.)  I admit, the DH thing still bugs me, but I can recognize a great hitter when I see one (or when I rethink his numbers) and Martinez was clearly one of the best hitters to ever play the game.  My vote has changed to "Yes."

Tino Martinez - No

1,925 hits; 339 HR; 1,271 RBI; .271 lifetime avg.

While he did a great job anchoring those great Yankee teams of the late 90's after coming over from Seattle, I cannot really say in any way that Tino was a Hall man.  Good player with a nice 5 year peak, but he does not belong with the elite.

Don Mattingly - No

2,153 hits; 222 HR; 1,099 RBI; .307 lifetime avg.

I'd love to say that the avg. helps Mattingly as certainly his 9 gold gloves suggest as well.  But his real numbers just don't add up.  Just because he anchored a decade of losing Yankees teams doesn't give him entrance into the HoF.  He had a very popular baseball card but that reputation just doesn't translate into a HoF career.  Sorry Donnie Baseball.

Fred McGriff - Yes

2,490 hits; 493 HR; 1,550 RBI; .284 lifetime avg

Hits and avg don't give him the credit he deserves.  Those 493 home runs do.  Between 1988 and 1994 McGriff hit over 30 home runs each season.  In fact, he had 7 additional seasons in which he hit at least 20 per year, 3 more times topping 30.  Six times he landed in the top 10 in MVP voting, getting as close as 4th in 1993.  It was a monster season and one that Braves fans will remember forever.  And while he doesn't have the gold gloves to show it, he was a pretty darn good 1st baseman.  I'll readily admit that the Crime Dog is a borderline hall of famer, but he should not be punished for not getting to 500 HR.  He remains a hall of fame player.

Mark McGwire - Yes

1,626 hits; 583 HR; 1,414 RBI; .263 lifetime avg.

If it were not for the 583 home runs, nobody would even discuss McGwire, frankly.  He was no stud on the defense and he only gets credit (rightly) for his home runs.  That he broke the record in 1998 gives him an added bonus, but without him so did Sammy Sosa and does anybody really think Sosa is a hall of famer?  That said, McGwire hit 49 home runs in his rookie season and if steroids are what is keeping you from looking at McGwire's actual career, then you need to look again.  This guy was a masher, and with Conseco and Eckersley, anchored those late 80's Oakland teams as well as the pre-Pujols Cardinals. He made a name for himself in the baseball world and so his numbers do not matter as much anymore.  You could liken him to Pete Rose or Sandy Koufax...either way, he belongs in the Hall.

That was last year.  My thoughts have not changed, but McGwire did come out and admit his PED usage as he transitioned to hitting coach for the Cardinals.  I doubt it will  help his Hall case and in fact, may hurt it with the way some voters wish to punish such players.  See Bagwell this year and he's never had any proof or insinuation that he used.  McGwire will likely have to wait a long time to get into the Hall if he ever does.

Raul Mondesi - No

1,589 hits; 271 HR; 860 RBI; .273 lifetime avg.

Here is another Dodger RoY on the ballot and one that should have ended up a HoF player.  From 1995 to 2001, he was a guy you wanted on your team hitting over 20 HR each year.  By 2005, he was completely washed up and a joke in the field and at the plate (trust me...I recall his short stay in Atlanta.)  Looks like it will be Piazza that finally gets a 90's Dodger RoY in the Hall.

Jack Morris - No

254-186 record; 3.90 lifetime ERA; 2,478 K; 175 complete games and 28 shutouts

There are two serious pitchers on this HoF ballot (again.)  When you compare Morris with Blyleven...well, is there really a comparison?  If Bert comes out ahead, and still has not gained entry to the HoF, then why should Morris expect anything more?  254 wins is impressive as is the 1991 World Series game 7 where he pitched 10 innings of shutout ball...the last time that happened in a WS game (or perhaps any other.)  I recall him very much, but then I am a Braves fan.  Was he a hall of famer?  I am not so sure.  That 3.90 lifetime ERA really smarts for his case.  But he has a case, I will grant you that.  I just would not vote for him...not right now at least.

Dale Murphy - Yes

2,111 hits; 398 HR; 1,266 RBI; .265 lifetime avg.

Bill James used a criteria some years back called the Keltner list.  It is based on a specific player's borderline stats and asks questions to see if a player really deserves enshrinement.  Of all the baseball blogs I visit, Mac Thomason's Braves Journal is the best for my team.  There he looks at Dale Murphy's Keltner list.  Of course I am a Braves fan, as well as a Murphy fan (actually met him in person at a Morman church in Roswell, GA where I grew up.)  Murphy deserves the distinction of being one of the top 2 or 3 players in his decade of the 80's, yet he is now considered borderline.  I've mentioned Albert Belle before but I bring it up again to discuss Murphy.  Belle ended his storied career with 381 HRs compared to Murphy's 398.  Belle had 1,239 RBI to Dale's 1,266.  Belle only had 1,726 hits to Murphy's 2,111.  But Belle only played for 12 seasons. Murphy played for 18.  If Belle is not a hall of famer (and he dropped off the ballot in his first year of appearance with only 19 votes or 3.5% of the vote) then Murphy is not.  I happen to think Belle is deserving, and thus so too is Murphy.  At least that is what makes sense as a Braves and baseball fan.  In truth, Murphy seems to fall in with Mattingly (and Larkin actually in a way) - so many years with one team, and the stud of that team, but not enough to gain entry.  The Hall of very, very (very) good.

John Olerud - No

2,239 hits; 255 HR; 1,230 RBI; .295 lifetime avg.

Olerud might get in just for that hat he wore at first base.  In truth, his numbers are actually better than I expected to see when I checked.  But as a first baseman, and with so many great ones coming down the pike soon (as well as on this same ballot) I cannot vote for Olerud.  I recall him with Toronto as his team broke my heart in 1992 and then later with the Mets.  Good guy, but not a Hall guy.

Rafael Palmeiro - Yes

3,020 hits (24th all-time); 569 HR (12th all-time); 1,835 RBI (15th all-time); .288 lifetime avg.

Recall the old time numbers that used to get a guy into the Hall?  Well, look above as those numbers should usher any other man right in.  There are only 3 other men that ever played the game that had at least 3,000 hits, 500 HR and 1,600 RBI.  Their names are Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Eddie Murray.  Not Barry Bonds.  Not Babe Ruth.  Not Stan Musial.  Not Ted Williams.  But Raffy did it.  Then add to that 4 All Star games, 3 gold gloves and landing in the top 20 in MVP voting ten different times during his career.  He's 79th all-time in WAR (a newer statistic but a good one) but outside of Scott Rolen immediately above him, the rest of the names are elite guys.  Finally, one must add his positive test for PEDs just a few years after wagging his finger at Congress as he flatly denied any such usage.  This man's case is a tough one and I can guarantee he will not be elected to the Hall in this or any other year by the writers.  I say that is a shame.  He may not have been the flashiest player, but he was sturdy in the manner of Aaron and that is how he compiled such awesome numbers.  I vote "Yes."

Dave Parker - No

2,712 hits; 339 HR; 1,493 RBI; .290 lifetime avg.

This guy is a hard one.  He reminds me much of Jim Rice with his numbers.  They are not as good as ballot-mate Harold Baines, but Parker played the field and at an earlier time.  He is not on the ballot much longer.  He also reminds a bit of Dick Allen, with a feared history but not enough numbers to seal the deal.  They are not quite the 3,000 hits you want to see, nor even at 400 HR.  Not getting to 1,500 RBI really kills his case as I didn't see him play in person.  But recall that Allen only played for 15 seasons.  Parker for 19.  Allen still had more HRs.  And both probably belong in the HoF.

That was last year's write up and with the ballot as huge as it is this year, I have to give that vote to another.  I wonder if Parker deals with this a lot.  He was a great player but remains borderline and my sympathies are occupied elsewhere this year.

Tim Raines - Yes

2,605 hits; 980 RBI; 808 SB (5th all time); .294 lifetime avg.

Rock Raines is the poor man's Rickey Henderson.  I really don't know anybody that argues that point.  If Rickey gets into the Hall, which he rightly has, then Raines needs to follow close after as he was nearly a carbon copy.  Perhaps the coke thing keeps him out.  Or perhaps people have not considered him fully just yet.  Either way, he belongs.

Kirk Rueter - No

130-92 record; 4.27 ERA; 818 K

The man is only on the ballot because he played for 13 years (a minimum of ten being required.)  He only won 15 or more games twice in that time.  Not meant for the Hall.

Benito Santiago - No

1,830 hits; 217 HR; 920 RBI; .263 lifetime avg.

Santiago had a neat trick of being able to throw guys out at second from his knees.  He was also excellent with a pitching staff.  An outstanding defensive catcher but not a man that built Hall numbers, even as a catcher.  He did hit 30 homers in 1996, but only hit .300 or better twice and never had 100 RBI for a season.  Rookie of the Year in 1987 and 5 All Star appearances seem to be his reward for a lengthy career solely as a catcher.

Lee Smith - No

71-92 record; 3.03 lifetime ERA; 478 saves (3rd all time); 1,251 K

The man that at one time owned the all time saves record, now he must compete with Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman.  He's not in the same company, though he is close.  If Sutter and Gossage are in the Hall, then so too should Smith see induction.  He really is part of that triumvirate.  And a 3.03 lifetime ERA...not bad for a reliever as he was for 18 seasons.

That was last year.  The ballot is much larger this time and frankly, there are more deserving guys.  I may vote for him in future when the ballot clears up some, but that will not happen for a while.

B.J. Surhoff - No

2,326 hits; 188 HR; 1,153 RBI; .282 lifetime avg.

Surhoff had a lengthy career as a pain in the ass.  That was the way the other teams looked at him, I am sure.  He was never great but always able to get a hit when the team needed it and drove the other team crazy.  He only hit 20 or more homers three times, however.  He was a good hitter but not a hall of famer.

Alan Trammell - No

2,365 hits; 185 HR; 1,003 RBI; 236 SB; .285 lifetime avg.

Look, I understand that Whitaker and Trammell were the double play combo for the AL during the 80's. They were like Stockton and Malone in the NBA.  Whitaker had but a day on the ballot.  Trammell has stayed as an early version of what Ripken made popular.  Yet I just do not see the numbers to justify his enshrinement.  Where Ripken had over 3,000 hits, Trammell never got near that number.  Where Cal had over 1,600 RBI, Trammell was not even close.  Ripken far outweighed him in homers.  Trammell only wins in avg. and perhaps gold gloves.  We know who the superior player is.  Trammell is not it.  Nor does he belong in the hall, at least on this ballot.

That was last year's write up and I still will not vote for Trammell this year.  However, I think he ultimately belongs in the Hall (so does Whitaker, probably.)  He may need to be a Vets guy.

Larry Walker - No

2,160 hits; 383 HR; 1,311 RBI; .313 lifetime avg.

Walker is another guy that I might give more of a look if the ballot was not so large this year.  MVP in '97, he was also in the top 10 in voting 3 other times.  He won 7 gold gloves in his career and went to 5 All Star games.  He was a hell of a hitter, leading his league three times over his career.  I will grant you that he is borderline (and that is why he does not get my vote this year) but he deserves some more scrutiny over time and I hope he remains on the ballot in future years so he gets a solid second look.

* * *

And there it is.  My full ballot looks like this:

Roberto Alomar

Jeff Bagwell

Bert Blyleven

Barry Larkin

Edgar Martinez

Fred McGriff

Mark McGwire

Dale Murphy

Rafael Palmiero

Tim Raines

 

Only allowed ten votes so some good players must wait - Baines, Morris, Parker, Smith, Trammell and Walker.  I suspect all will continue to have their champions in years to come (well, except perhaps Baines...I think I am the only person that actually thinks he may deserve a spot in the Hall.) 

Results will be announced January 5, 2011.  I suspect that only Alomar and Blyleven will be elected this year.  Maybe Bagwell if he is lucky.  I cannot see anyone else getting there considering their numbers last year (Morris and Larkin will not move from the 50% range to 75% that quickly.)  And if you want some idea of what future years might look like, please revisit my post from last year looking at the Hall future.  The ballot will remain crowded for some years to come.  That is all.

2011 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

Time again for the Hall of Fame voting and much like every year, this is a time I enjoy as I pour over stats of players since retired but still somewhat fresh on my mind.  And of course there are the carry overs that have their various detractors and champions.  I do not have a HoF vote, but if I did it may go a little something like this:

 

Roberto Alomar - Yes

2,724 hits; 474 SB; 1,134 RBI; .300 lifetime avg.

He has lower numbers for what used to be the typical hall of famer, but recall he was a second baseman.  He only had 210 HR, but I recall him coming up with a few well timed dingers.  Mostly, however, he was just a hitter and a feared one.  Feared because he knew how to swing the bat.  He wasn't half bad as a fielder too.  He was the clear best second baseman of his age for a lengthy period which is what the Hall tends to reward.  I think it's likely a first year entry as long as the spitting incident doesn't hurt him.  I don't think it will at this late date.

That's what I wrote last year.  He did not get in that time, but I still say yes and I think he will get in this year.  Sometimes the Hall just likes to make a player wait.  I am fairly certain that DiMaggio did not get in on the first ballot.  Huh???

Carlos Baerga - No

1,583 hits; 134 HR; 774 RBI; .291 lifetime avg.

You know, I recall Baerga being a better second baseman than his stats suggest.  14 seasons and only 1,583 hits.  Didn't steal that many bases and his defense wasn't THAT good.  His career took a huge dive at the end and one might suspect the dreaded steroids if he had a more sustained power game.  As it is he topped 20 only twice in '92 and '93.

Jeff Bagwell - Yes

2,314 hits; 449 HR; 1,529 RBI; .297 lifetime avg.

I could easily add to the above, the only first baseman to have not just one but two 30/30 seasons.  Any thought that Bagwell is not a hall of famer is completely misplaced.  The only other first baseman I might take above Bags during the 90s might have been Frank Thomas.  But we'll get to him in a few years.  For now recognize that not only was Bagwell an above average defender for most of his career, he was also a beast at the plate before an arthritic shoulder took him down.  He played 15 seasons prior to that and complied some damn fine numbers.  Unfortunately, it is his first year on the ballot and recent years have taught that it may not happen for him this year.  That would be a damn shame!

Harold Baines - No

2,866 hits; 384 HR; 1,628 RBI, .289 lifetime avg.

Baines has always been a bit of a quandary.  His numbers look fairly good if not quite up to par for a hall of famer.  The RBI speak out but the HR are low, especially for a man who played for a long time (22 seasons.)  He was a bit of a statue in the field from what I recall, and extended his career for quite some time as a DH.  While he used to look good to me for the Hall, another full time DH enters the ballot this year which offers a clear comparison.  We'll look at those below but this year I have to say no to Harold Baines in the Hall.

That was last year's take and since Edgar didn't make it, I suspect Baines will not either.  I admit, I waffle on him from time to time, but the ballot is starting to fill up as I mentioned last year this time and Baines will continue to fall.

Bert Blyleven - Yes

287-250 record; lifetime ERA of 3.31; 3,701 K (5th on the all time list); 242 complete games and 60 shutouts (last time you'll see those numbers)

The record must be what has kept Blyleven out of the Hall all these years.  Otherwise I cannot figure it out.  When he first got on the ballot, he was actually 3rd all time in strikeouts.  Johnson and Clemens rightfully passed him but his numbers still speak up there.  And I think everyone knows by now that his record is more a reflection on his teams than it is on himself.  Years with losing teams will make a record look like that.  Recall the argument with Phil Neikro, and to a lesser extent Nolan Ryan, was that you had to be a really good pitcher to lose that many games.  That he came up 13 wins shy of 300 should not penalize him.  Blyleven belongs in the Hall.  Now.

Bret Boone - No

1,775 hits; 252 HR; 1,021 RBI; .266 life time avg.

Boone comes out a lot better than Baerga above, but when considered alongside Alomar still looking in from the outside, one could not justify a vote for him.  And even without that modifier, Boone still does not belong.  He has some good power numbers for a second baseman, but his hits remain low as does his average.  He did win a few gold gloves and was 3rd in MVP voting in 2001.  He was scrappy, from what I recall, but not a HoF guy.

Kevin Brown - No

211-144 lifetime record; 3.28 ERA; 2,397 K (good for 38th all time)

Brown will be a tough one for a lot of people.  He is not really for me.  He pitched 19 years and only won 20 games once.  He never won a Cy Young.  He is really best remember for his ginormous contract that did not pay off for the various clubs that ended up paying for it.  Maybe I hold his last years as a Yankee against him, but while I respected Brown, I never considered him a hall of fame guy.  I look at his numbers now and I still don't see it.  A lot of people say the same thing about Blyleven above, but 287 beats 211 anytime.  Brown was good, but not that good.

John Franco - No

90-87 record; 2.89 ERA; 424 saves (4th all time)

It would be tempting to vote for Franco as I did sometimes consider him for this place.  As it is now, the ballot is huge and even if he was borderline, I could not vote for him this year with a 10 player limit.  However, I must admit now that should the number of players one can vote for becomes as many as I want, I still would not vote for Franco. Lee Smith is 3rd all time, and he's not in.  And below Franco is Billy Wagner and I'm not sure I'd vote for him as a Hall of Famer either.  Relievers are still a very tough call.

Juan Gonzalez - No

1,936 hits; 434 HR; 1,404 RBI; .295 lifetime avg.

Juan Gone has some interesting stats and a few monster seasons capped by his two MVPs (that some call undeserved.)  What he also carries with him is the reeking stench of steroids.  While I do not try and base my thoughts on that alone, I cannot remove it from my mind as I ponder what his stats might look like without using.  What is more, even if Gonzalez did not use?  He still does not belong.  17 years and he didn't break 2,000 hits.  The old time stats for a Hall guy are 3000 hits, 500 HR and 1600 RBI.  Right or wrong, Gonzalez does not reach those unlike another proven steroid guy on this ballot.

Marquis Grissom - No

2,251 hits; 227 HR; 967 RBI; 429 SB; .272 lifetime avg.

As a Braves fan, I loved Marquis back in the day.  He was a great center fielder while he played for the team but for his career, he began to tail off rather quickly.  Still, he had five seasons of over 20 HR which is great for a center fielder.  He stole over 400 bases, three times stealing 50 or more in a season and two of those were 76 and 78 bases stolen in '91 and '92.  Moreover, Grissom was a member of that awesome '94 Montreal Expos team that will go down as the greatest team to never win a damn thing (and the one that was not allowed to break Atlanta's division winning streak.)  Still, he does not quite live up to the Hall standards as he lacks the hits a lead-off type of guy requires.

Lenny Harris - No

1,055 hits; 37 HR; 369 RBI; .269 lifetime average

Harris is on this list because he was a hell of a pinch hitter.  However, I have never seen a pinch hitter specialist make it into the hall on that basis alone.  It won't happen this year either.

Bobby Higginson - No

1,336 hits; 187 HR; 709 RBI; .272 lifetime avg.

I recall when Higginson came up.  He was supposed to be a super star.  As it was, he was serviceable and actually ended up playing his entire career for one team, the Detroit Tigers.  I admit I am at a loss as to why his career tailed off so precipitously in 2005.  He only made it 11 years.  Maybe he made his money (around $52 million all told) and went home.  Whatever the reason, he was not a Hall of Famer.

 

* * *

With a total of 33 guys on the ballot this year (and with 1500 words or so already spilled over the above 12), I'll return to this before the results are announced.  I'll have them out by the end of the weekend.  21 more guys to go and some definite Hall bound guys to look at.  Until next time, that is all.

 

The Uggla Trade

It's been a few days since the Uggla trade and the ramifications start to kick in, I'd think.  There is no doubt that the Braves gained a premier 2nd baseman, but it does not solve LF...or CF for that matter.  Make no mistake...the Braves added an excellent addition to the ballclub (and addition by subtraction as well if you consider how much Uggla killed us as a Marlin) but I have to say I am somewhat suspect of placing Martin Prado in LF and standing pat. 

A loss of Infante is no great harm, even if he might throw us some terrible "Wes Helms" or "Adam Wainwright" type hell from time to time.  He was not an everyday player.  Dunn was young and wild.  It was a steal to gain Dan Uggla for that price.  I cannot complain when the team gains a terrific RH hitter with power at second base when we've needed that exact offensive upgrade for some time.  Uggla will do well in the middle of this order.  His defense is suspect but you gain a super upgrade on defense at 1st.  Freeman will be at least as good as Lee...count it.  How he does on the offense is another question.

What we have now looks like this:

C- Brian McCann

1st - Freddy Freeman

2nd - Dan Uggla

3rd - Chipper Jones

SS - Alex Gonzalez

RF - Jason Heyward

CF - Nate McLouth

LF - Martin Prado

With that, I guess you look at a line-up of -

1. Prado 2. Jones 3. Heyward 4. McCann 5. Uggla 6. Freeman 7. Gonzalez 8. McClouth 9. Pitcher

It's not a bad lineup, but I'd still love to have a good outfielder out there on a daily basis to back up Heyward...and not just on offense.  I cannot quibble with Wren's decision to trade, but I wonder why the team might sit still when there still seems a glaring hole in the outfield. 

I had five issues that the team needed to really cover before next season. 

1. Will Chipper be able to play?  The answer is still up in the air.  There is an assumption that Prado will be able to cover.  He should not do so every day. DRAW

2. The Infante question is now moot.  We traded that for Dan Uggla.  Prado moves to super utility man. WIN

3. The CF question seems to have settled upon McLouth.  I am not satisfied. LOSE

4. Prado moves to LF and supposedly plays there (or has) in the winter leagues.  I am suspect on first glance. DRAW

5. As suspected, A-Gon will be back at SS.  He will show some flashes of brilliance with the glove and drop a few as well.  I doubt his bat will be as potent in 2011. DRAW

If this trade is the last "big" move before next season, I have to say Wren will have failed.  But he has succeeded beyond many expectations by this point so I have to take a wait and see attitude.  The last two years have proved he is capable of covering the holes.  It's the holes to start that make me worry.  April doesn't really matter...until October.  That is all.

2010 Braves Postmortem

I don't blame Derek Lowe.  I don't blame Brooks Conrad.  I don't blame Melky Cabrera.  And I certainly don't blame Bobby Cox!  My immediate blame was in the 5 game series that poorly decides the Division Series, but in the end, I can blame no one.  This was easily the best Braves season I have watched since 2005 and frankly, this club reminds me more of some 90's clubs...up and coming and ready to start a new dynasty.  Or a few postseason runs at least.

Derek Lowe pitched his heart out in Bobby Cox's last game and for that, Bobby allowed him one more hitter.  Who is to say that he's pulled before he walks Burrell and we're out of it?  The next guy could easily give up a HR, even with our bullpen.  But if Kimbrel isn't taken out in Game 3, we might have won that one too.  If, if, if...if Chipper and Prado and Wagner and Medlin and JJ and...well, you know where that argument goes.  If those guys are healthy, then Conrad never ends up with 3 errors in a very important game.  But maybe Chipper makes a poor play because he's playing on bad legs...which he most certainly would have had would he not have gone on the DL.  Prado was already walking wounded.  So was Wagner, in some ways.  Medlin hurt, no doubt.  And JJ...well, I just hope the kid comes back strong next year.  There are tons of injuries that have hampered this team all season, and if they can get this far on fumes, let's just consider what they might do next year when healthy.  If only.

It will take some time before next year's roster will take shape, but you can be sure Heyward will be in RF barring some unfortunate offseason injury (keep him locked in carbonite, please), Freeman will most likely take on 1st, Prado will likely be back at 2nd and McCann will certainly be at catcher with Ross backing up.  Venters, Kimbrel and Dunn are locked up.  Moylan should likely be back, depending on arbitration and one would think O'Flaherty.  Lowe is scheduled for 2 more years and JJ, Hanson and Hudson will all be back as well.

Medlin will take some time to come back and there is plenty in the pipeline to throw in there should we need a starting pitcher with Beachy having already impressed.  The biggest issues to look at are Chipper's ability starting next season; finding a place for Infante to play (and perhaps not every day - getting him back to super sub should be a priority); finding a steady center and left fielder; and deciding on Alex Gonzalez over some substitute.  What that might be, I don't know.  I'll admit that he shows some flashes of brilliance with the glove, but he drops them these days too.  His bat is...not the best.

One might hope we could start with something like this:

C - Brian McCann

1st - Freddy Freeman (he's playing in the Arizona Fall League)

2nd - Martin Prado

3rd - Chipper Jones

SS - Alex Gonzalez (he's under contract for one more year)

RF - Jason Heyward

CF - ?

LF - ?

 

SP - Tim Hudson

SP - Derek Lowe

SP - Tommy Hanson

SP - Jair Jurjjens

SP - Mike Minor/Brandon Beachy or some other

Closer - Kimbrel or Venters (both tutored by Billy Wagner)

And plenty of other pen.

I should mention the bench will keep Diaz most likely (he has some arbitration, I believe), McLouth and maybe Ankiel (not certain on his contract terms).  Where Melky ends up...I really don't care.  I held out hope he'd show some promise, but it just didn't happen.

I'd love to somehow keep Lee but he'd be too much money when we have other needs.  Freeman is known for being a good defender.  I suspect Conrad will be back even with his goat image.  I hope he gets out of the funk early on.  And then there is Chipper.  I firmly believe he'll make a strong attempt to come back but even if he does, I suspect he will not be playing in 140 games.  Not even 100, likely.  When not in there, Infante/Prado can cover but a better option for infield back-up is needed over Brooksie and Diory Hernandez.  If it is likely that Chipper cannot go after spring training, something more drastic needs to happen.  Prado should not be the everyday 3rd baseman, nor should Infante be the everyday 2nd baseman.

Plenty of off-season to think about it but here is where we say goodbye to a few folks that will not be back.  Bobby Cox?  What can I say about the man.  I could type an entirely separate post for that and may someday but for now I can only say he's a class act with some screwy management skills at times.  He's always been a season manager, not a postseason manager.  But he got back there his last year and the way the Phillies are playing (and the way we played them in our last 6 games) we almost certainly would not have made it all the way.  Almost the best way to go out if we could not get a win in his last game.  We did in the regular season.  I look forward to his day in Cooperstown.  Wouldn't it be something to see him inducted along with Maddux and Glavine?  Not sure the timing works.

And let me also say a terribly sad goodbye to Billy Wagner.  He debuted just a few years after I started really following baseball and has beat up on my teams for years.  When he joined us, I finally figured out why.  He is a special player and has had a tremendous influence on the growth of the bullpen he leaves behind.  If we cannot get Maddux as a pitching coach, the Braves could do a hell of a lot worse than signing Wags up for the role.  Not sure he makes the HoF given the weird closer thing, but he has some solid credentials and I am near 100% certainty that had he been able to close out Game 3, we would have been up 2-1 last night.  What a finale, Billy!

I also say goodbye to Glaus and Lee.  Troy had a hell of a month and a half and he deserves every bit of glory for his exploits.  It was sad to see him crumble and he had one last great moment with the double play in Game 2.  And Lee?  I could be roundly dismissive of what he brought to the table with his bat if his glove wasn't so damn smooth.  I was so excited when we got him even with the bad back.  I'd seen his track record up close many times.  But he just didn't bring his A game with him at the plate.  But on defense?  It was a great comfort knowing he was manning the bag.

For all the injuries suffered, games lost in terrible ways, bone headed plays by various players and strange decisions at times flowing from the dugout...this was one hell of a season.  I enjoyed nearly every bit of it and can only hope that next year sees one more step towards that ultimate goal - winning a World Series.  Thank you 2010 Braves and let's get 'em next year.  This time around, I have zero qualms throwing my weight behind the Giants.  Too long since they won a World Series and never in the city of San Francisco.  'Bout time, I say!  That is all.

2010 Baseball Postseason

I am indeed late to the party in putting up my postseason picks.  I needed a day or two after the late season drive/collapse of the Braves.  Look...they got there, right?  That's what counts!  How many times has ESPN and MLB told us that "Anything Can Happen!!!"?  I picked four out of the eight postseason participants at the start of the season.  162 games later, the Yankees are not division winners, but they do get to play more games in October.  And if you'll notice, I picked the AL Central perfectly.  That doesn't happen too often.  I actually got the NL East right too.  And there's the rub...can the Braves keep up with my predictions?

 

Division Series:

Rays over Rangers

Twins over Yankees

Phillies over Reds

Braves over Giants

* * *

Championship Series:

Rays over Twins

Braves over Phillies

* * *

And the World Series:

Atlanta Braves over Tampa Bay Rays in 7 games.

 

At least that was the scenario when the postseason started...or something like it.  Other teams may have some differing attitudes to that.  Especially Texas.  Still, I am willing to stick by these...at least until I am proved wrong.  Obviously the Rays are down by two now and the Twins lost a tough one yesterday.  But the Braves have yet to start as of this writing and I look (and hope) for them to come out patient and willing to take a walk or two. 

To be entirely objective, most people would pick NY and Philly here, with the Phillies winning it after the no hitter last night.  It's a loooong postseason.  And I guess I'd have to agree with ESPN and MLB (it doesn't happen often)...anything can happen. 

EDIT - A little background on Lowe's September for those worried about tonight's game.  Capital Avenue Club has been bringing great analysis all season.

That is all.

Game 161...aka Bobby Cox Day

It is just like baseball to make one cheer before they cry...or cry before they cheer.  It is just like baseball to bring a team from a 9 game losing streak to a 9 game winning streak, leading the National League East from Memorial Day to Labor Day, and finding their entire postseason prospects tied to the very last game of the season.

As I type this post, the Braves have not yet lost the game.  But if they do, and it looks increasingly as though they might, they will be tied for the Wild Card and even if they win tomorrow, their fortune rests with the Padres ability to finish off the Giants in a sweep.  Would that Barry Bonds have come out of retirement just once tonight to crash that very needed home run and win one damn game for the Giants.  That's all that was needed.

Many can speak of the seeming Braves collapse but in truth, they are playing up to their ability.  Especially given the many injuries that have yet again plagued the season.  They lead for much of summer thanks to the Phillies NOT playing up to their level.  This last month has disabused anyone of the thought that they had done anything else.  Yet there is still a strong team here for the Braves.  One that has been...dare I say it?  Fine...resilient.  Or something like it, at least.  These Braves have suffered enumerable injuries, poor defense as a direct result, and a frightening loss of power.  Some of that last point may be due to those same injuries, but the team as a whole seems lacking in the long ball.  And have since day one.  Heyward is a rookie, so I cannot blame him.  McCann is a catcher and you'll take what you can get.  Glaus' May got us into this position but we had to know that was over and above at the time.  Prado, the team MVP, was never counted upon for that.  It's the outfield, stupid.

I'm not yet ready to look at next year's team, but it is clear that we need to have patience at the plate tomorrow (something else lost in our trades, I am afraid), keep concentrated on defense and if possible, hit a HR or two.  Maybe even a couple of doubles back to back.  We did not get here by hitting home runs.  We got here, frankly, by taking walks.  Chipper cannot play right now.  The rest of these guys need to be patient at the plate.  Lee especially.  He is the biggest reason we have struggled, and yet remains our greatest hope for the postseason.  I firmly believe that.  A little Glaus at 3rd base might not hurt either, Brooks Conrad "folk hero" or not.

But as I said...this is baseball.  Just yesterday I was reading someone at ESPN lament the disappointment of a meaningless last 3 games of the season.  Well...baseball, once again, took care of that and made it exciting.  God I love this game.  That is all.

The Lennons

Yoko with Julian and Sean.  Coolest image I've seen for some time.

That is all.

2010 Braves at the Midpoint

I've been meaning to compose this post for some time but for various reasons, I kept putting it off until now.  I could claim personal reasons, but in reality, it may be due more to an inability to truly read the 2010 Braves.  My initial excitement over the season was quickly shot when the Braves came out of the gate in April with a 9-14 record, including an ugly 9 game losing streak.  But then they turned on the gas and gave fans a 20-8 May and 17-11 June.  That puts them in 1st place in the NL East with the best record in the senior circuit as the break hits.

Quite a turn around.  At the end of May, I mentioned to some I thought the talent level of the Braves likely sits somewhere in between the awful April and amazing May.  June pretty much proved that thought, though they are still perhaps playing above their level given the down seasons we are seeing from some players and some significant slumps/injuries.  Good thing the Phillies are playing well below their level as it allows that 1st place position (as usual, I do not trust the Mets given their terrible front office.)

So what to make of the team?  Let's look at it position by position (sort of):

1st - Troy Glaus has made a huge impact on the success of the team.  Many could point to his moment of turning it on that pushed the team forward in the standings.  That is mostly true, to a point.  His recent regression was to be expected, but I think he is a perfect poster child of this teams success.

2nd - Martin Prado has potentially been the team's MVP.  Certainly his excellent hitting this year has given the team a great weapon.  And his performance over his last 162 games proves he is not a flash in the pan.  Once given the position mid year in 2009, Prado has been steady and dependable, if perhaps not the greatest of great 2nd basemen defensively. 

SS - We must confront the elephant in the room and will look at this further below.  Suffice to say, Yunel Escobar did not replicate his amazing 2009.  I have no idea why.  Injury?  Communication barrier?  Bad attitude?  Could be anything.  But it is somewhat amazing to consider we are in 1st while receiving very little from last year's team MVP.

3rd - Chipper Jones isn't the MVP he was in 1999.  But he's still a proven ball player with a great eye at the plate.  He ranks very highly in walks this year even with another down year at the plate.  His leadership probably gives him an added bonus (and it wasn't something he's always been known for.)  While we could use more from this position both offensively and on defense, I am content to watch Chipper Jones continue to man the hot corner for as long as he wants to play.  Call me too nostalgic.

Catcher - McCann started slowly but has pulled his numbers back to where they should be for the most part.  I don't think he should have been named to start in the All Star game this year as his numbers did not justify it, but he remains if not the best, one of the best catchers in the league.  And he won the eventual NL champion home field advantage in the World Series with his big hit in last night's All Star game.

Outfield - I'll put them all together for now as there has been some good mixing and matching.  Obviously, Heyward's great start did much to keep the team excited and hopeful.  Once the injury began to effect his swing, the team was still able to trot out a reasonable outfield each night.  Especially with McLouth's problems.  Diaz is hitting now that he's back from the DL and while I don't think too much of Melky Cabrera, he has not been awful.  Hinske has done a great job filling in here and elsewhere though his numbers to are starting to regress a bit.

Bench - Let's use this space to include Infante, newly named All Star.  The Atlanta bench has been strong all year, especially with great back up catcher David Ross.  In fact, it has been a great strength of this team that mixing and matching when needed due to injury or rest has resulted in very little tail off, if at all.  Every man is playing their part well.

Starting pitchers - Starting pitching has seen some hurdles this year but all in all, they are doing well, especially given Kawakami's inability to win his first game (finally picked it up just before being moved to the bullpen.)  Four other starters are on pace for double digit wins for the season and Jurrjens has looked good coming off the DL.  I have little fear these guys will lose this in the second half.

Bullpen - Huge!  In total, the pen may be the real team MVP.  Wagner set the tone early in the spring and the coming out party for Venters has helped to offset some shaky moments from Saito and Moylen.

In the end, the two major areas in need of improvement are SS and the outfield (considering no one expects Chipper to retire tomorrow.)  The first was dealt with today in the trade of Escobar to the Blue Jays for Alex Gonzalez.  After a little reading, I don't see much downside considering even if Gonzalez regresses, he will still give us approximately what Escobar did in the first half, with perhaps a bit of tail off on defense as Yunel was very, very good when he concentrated.  Obviously his ceiling is far greater than a 33 year old SS who has bumped around the leagues for the past few years.  But Gonzalez has played for some winners and seems solid enough to trust him with Lowe and Hudson's ground balls.

Further, there may be some benefit to removing what was starting to seem a clubhouse problem.  It was not even a month ago when I witnessed Chipper Jones getting into Yunel's face, pushing him to the bench to make sure he looked into his eyes.  Don't know what was exactly said, but Chipper did not look like he was messing around.  It was not but last week when we saw a poor play by Escobar lead to a potential injury for one of our cogs, Troy Glaus.  If he hurts his wrist or hand, we have another big hole to fill.  It is often called addition by subtraction and to a point, that applies here.  No doubt Escobar is a huge talent.  But when is enough when waiting for a player to mature?  Perhaps a fresh start in Toronto will be good for him but if he was taking away from clubhouse chemistry in this year when we find ourselves in 1st at the break...I don't mind the trade. 

As far as the outfield goes, we need either McLouth to turn it on in the second half or another every day center fielder (which would be our third in as many years.)  I do not trust a full time Cabrera out there and the others are not suited.  Perhaps Blanco but he's been given a chance before and did not do much with it.  There are not a lot of great choices out there to fill this need, any more than there is a big RH bat to stick in left field.  But with the above trade, I am not at all convinced that Frank Wren is done dealing.  Wren has exceeded my expectations as GM for a while now.  He has earned a bit of trust to make moves that may not seem great at first, but either he's been really lucky, or really smart.  Maybe a little bit of both.  Glaus, Wagner and the trade of Frenchie last year has earned my trust.

I look forward to the 2nd half of the season.  So far, I'm not too badly off my preseason picks.  And as far as the Braves are concerned in the division, I am glad to have been wrong.  Of course, the season ain't over yet.  Let's go Braves!  That is all.

R.I.P. Corinne Elder Hammond

Yesterday evening, perhaps the most important person in my life passed away.  My grandmother was 94 years old and succumbed to a broken hip and various complications that followed.  Yet even in the passing from this mortal coil, she fought to stay in this world.  Whether for her own reasons or to care for us, her family, it matters not at this time.  She is with her late husband once again and the Lord which was her great desire during her life and upon her death.

As the resident pseudo-author in the family, I was once again tasked with writing an obituary and I have done so for her as follows:

Corinne Elder Hammond died at the age of 94 on June 10, 2010 in Roswell, Georgia. Born January 10, 1916 in Atlanta, Georgia to Herbert Franklin Elder and Minnie Lou Monroe Elder, Corinne was the eldest of 6 children. She lived her entire life in the city of her birth, marrying husband Robert E. Hammond, Sr. (1913-2008) in 1946 after his return from World War II. The two often enjoyed traveling and golfing in both the United States and Europe and spending time with family and friends scattered throughout the country. Corinne and Bob were members of Druid Hills Country Club, Northside United Methodist Church and later Roswell United Methodist Church. She is survived by her sister Louise Hanie; her children Toni Hammond Conrad, Terri Hammond and Robert E. Hammond, Jr.; and their families including five grandchildren and two great grandchildren.

Easily, I could add that this woman was very much a second mother to me helping to care for myself and my sister when our parents were divorced when I was 4 years of age.  As my own mother went back to work, I spent much time with her at an early age playing "house" and watching a great deal of early HBO (God bless early cable.)  She always loved to remember me dressing in my grandfather's coat, hat and shoes (far too large for me) and "coming home from work."  Back scratches were also a time I remember well as my grandmothers hands could always make me feel comfort and ease, her fingers spelling out words that I would then have to guess.

As I grew older, she was always there to talk to and listen.  Whenever I had trouble, she was there.  She was always trying to feed me, give me money or items for assistance (she demanded that she buy me a bed frame when I had none), give me advice that I desired (or did not desire) and simply offering me an undying and unconditional love every single day of my life.  Certainly opinionated and at times even angry at me, she was only thus because she loved this family with all of her heart and soul with me as part of it.  She taught me the idea of family and its importance in a person's life, as well as a love for God and perhaps even humanity (the latter still requires some work.)

She wanted only the best for me and I am disappointed in myself that I was unable to give her that wish of a wife and home to call my own as in her last years, this was her great desire for me...happiness.  Nana only wanted that for me - a life to call my own with all the benefits that come with a stable, loving family.  Thankfully, I have her words in my heart and mind as I continue to find those things and I know that when I do, she will be pleased.

I am happy that she has found peace and is once again with her husband of 62 years.  But I miss her already.  That voice is only silenced face to face, however, as her heart and mind will stay with me until the day that I myself pass from this Earth.  She was a profound influence on my life and my thoughts.  Every single day I think of her and will continue to do so for the rest of my life.  Rest in peace, Nana.  I thank you, I miss you and I love you! 

That is all.

2010 Major League Baseball Preseason Picks

So I'm a few days late with my picks.  But they have barely begun playing so I don't think one or two games will change my opinion as to how the season will shake out.  Of course, these are just a guess having no real weight behind them, but it's a fun exercise both before the season to see how the teams stack up and then after to see how you did.  Of course, I'm sure my picks will turn out perfectly.  Let's take a look:

American League East

• New York Yankees
• Boston Red Sox (WC)
• Tampa Bay Rays
• Toronto Blue Jays
• Baltimore Orioles

Jeez, not much change from my picks last year other than flipping Boston and Tampa.  Of course, any one of the top three teams could switch places and I'd agree with that...except maybe New York.  I won't say they are head and shoulders above the other two, but they do have an edge.  And I give Boston just a slight edge over Tampa due to a smart organization.  That's not to say Tampa lacks such, but that the Red Sox had a very good off-season if you look at the talent they brought in to balance what they already had (and they did not get suckered into Damon as some guessed they might.)  Unfortunately for Toronto and Baltimore, neither team has got the goods to challenge the big guys.  Sad but true.  In fact, it would not surprise me to see Toronto tumble to the bottom of this list.

American League Central

• Minnesota Twins
• Chicago White Sox
• Detroit Tigers
• Cleveland Indians
• Kansas City Royals

For the full team talent, Minnesota has the edge in this division, though Chicago is not far behind them.  But Mauer and Morneau give the Twins that one two punch the rest of these teams really don't have.  I don't buy the Peavy acquisition for Chicago because pitching was already their real strength.  The Twins will have a fight on their hands, however, and not just from Chicago.  Detroit maintains a good staff and I still like their lineup.  But they are having their usual troubles putting it all together.  Cleveland just didn't live up to the hype last year and they are worse off this time around.  Sizemore is still a stud, but he's only one man.  And sometimes it seems that is all the Royals have playing for them...just one man trying to play every position every day.  That's the only way I can understand their repeated failure year in and year out.  It is sad for the Royals, sad for the citizens of Kansas City and truly sad for the game of baseball.

American League West

• Seattle Mariners
• Anaheim Angels of California in Los Angeles
• Texas Rangers
• Oakland Athletics

Huzzah!  I finally pick someone other than the Angels to win the west.  Of course, some of that is brought on by the tiresome prospect of the Angels winning yet another division crown due to lack of trying by the other teams.  But I actually think the other teams have a real shot this year...at least Seattle.  Were Cliff Lee completely healthy to start the season, I would feel better about this pick, but it does not change the fact that I like the direction the Mariners are going.  Lee and King Felix together give them a great one two punch that could lift them above the perennially winning Angels.  Texas should be competing, at least from the guys Atlanta shipped them in the Tex trade, but that pitching staff...there is surely talent there, but not enough.  Same goes for Oakland.  I doubt they will somehow be able to keep Ben Sheets healthy any more than Milwaukee did and that seems the high point.  I could be wrong, I don't pay attention to the west coast teams like I should, but these picks work for me this year.

National League East

• Philadelphia Phillies
• Atlanta Braves (WC)
• Florida Marlins
• New York Mets
• Washington Nationals

Proof that I did not let the huge opening day game for the Braves get to me in my picks are the above.  Yes, Atlanta is once again picked for the wild card just as last year.  And I wasn't far off, was I?  Couple of games, really.  This year, I would not be surprised to see them win the division outright.  But I'm not dumb enough to put them ahead of the Phillies in a preseason poll.  Philly is still the class of the league, as much as the division.  Utley, Howard and Rollins anchor that team.  For now while they can still pay all three, the team remains in the lead.  But Atlanta closed the gap over the off-season (I'll speak more on this in a separate post) and I think we'll see a rather close race this year.  The Marlins can never be counted out, though they may have to start selling off their high priced parts mid season.  And the Natspos have grown.  They will not roll over for anybody, but they likely end in 5th place, unless the Mets are as truly horrible as I suspect they might.  If they have not yet imploded, they are about to.  That front office is so messed up that I cannot see how they ever win a game, except they do have really good players.  But the injury bug keeps getting them...again, just a poor organization which would be sad if they played anywhere other than New York.

National League Central

• St. Louis Cardinals
• Chicago Cubs
• Milwaukee Brewers
• Cincinnati Reds
• Houston Astros
• Pittsburgh Pirates

Believe it or not, after St. Louis, this is a pretty tight division.  In fact, I think both Chicago and Milwaukee have enough right now to challenge the Cards.  But I won't pick against them again until they actually lose it to another team.  Perhaps it is favoritism that causes me to pick Chicago next, but so be it.  I still think they have a good core.  And Milwaukee maintains a great set of players as well.  After them, Cincy and Houston can be grouped together as teams ready to take a leap forward but somehow untrusted by me at least to do so.  Just not there yet.  And I am beginning to think the Pirates are the National League's version of KC.  I guess they can continue to be a farm system for the Braves, but it shouldn't be that way.

National League West

• Los Angeles Dodgers
• Colorado Rockies
• Arizona Diamondbacks
• San Francisco Giants
• San Diego Padres

I will go with the Dodgers here but I think Colorado will be close behind.  In fact, they are right behind the Braves for a pick to win the wild card if not the division.  Still, Joe Torre remains one of the best around in pulling a team together and I have little fear he will fall off this year.  I'm not as sold on their team this year as I was last year, but they still have the talent to compete.  And as stated, the Rockies look strong.  Arizona too could challenge, but I think not.  And San Fran and San Diego are bottom feeders at present.  The Giants are better off and when you have Tim Lincecum as your ace, you are going to win a few games.  But the rest of the talent isn't there to back it up and San Diego...well, call me next year to see if anything has changed.  The biggest question with them is where Adrian Gonzalez will end up before years end.

For the postseason:

Division Series:
Yankees over Seattle
Boston over Twins
Phillies over Los Angeles
Braves over St. Louis

Championship Series:
Yankees over Boston
Braves over Phillies

World Series:
Braves over Yankees in six games

What the hell?  It's Bobby's last season!  And the team has a shot to be that good.  I have not picked them to win it in a while, but it feels right.  It will take a lot of luck and some great hits throughout the year but it is not impossible.  It is tough to go against the Yankees, however, and they will be the team to beat.  No doubt about it.  The Sox could put a good run together, no doubt, as could the Phillies.  Hell, even St. Louis should go far as could the Rays should they get into the postseason.  But I like the make-up for the Braves.  The only thing they are lacking really is bringing in an aged guy that's been around the block a few times and knows the score a la Joe Carter or Paul Molitor...but maybe Chipper fills that role on this team.  He will definitely be mentoring this year and if you saw his face after Heyward hit that home run on opening day, you know he doesn't mind that a bit.  He just needs to get his hits.  I am looking forward to a great season and one game in...so far so good.  I apologize for the lateness of the picks as I should have had them up over the weekend, but you know...stuff happens.  Go Braves!  That is all.

82nd Academy Awards - Liveblog

Well, here we go with the live blog, though much like last year I am not quite feeling it right now.  Maybe it is the anticipation of a long night tied to the computer.  Need to eat first so maybe that's it.  Plus I don't really do the red carpet.  Bring on the damn awards already.  Time to grab a quick bite and try and motivate myself to stay up until midnight.  A fresh beer might help too.  Back later when something more interesting happens.

12:02 - Got 18 out of 24 just like last year.  Surprising, but I picked the top 6 all correctly.  Missed both screenplay awards, which hurt or I could have done better.  I guess no love for Quentin.  And now, good night Jack Nicholson, wherever you are.

11:58 - Yes he does - picked Hurt Locker and it won

11:58 - Hanks to get it in just under the wire?

11:53 - Of course I picked Bigelow...and the winner is...Bigelow!

11:53 - Now Streisand to present Director?  To a woman?  That's got to hurt.

11:52 - See you Bullock haters...that wasn't so bad

11:47 - Penn to present the winner...and he mumbles...it is Bullock...told you Smullen.

11:43 - This is really just so much arse kissing...

11:40 - Again, the line up is not as impressive as last year - Best Actress time...picked Bullock...

11:36 - And he prattled on.  The Dude found something else to tie the room together and forgot to mention his brother, Beau.

11:32 - Winner is Bridges!

11:31 - Ahh, Kate...

11:27 - This is a bit smarmy and forced inside Hollywood...it was better last year with legends handing it off

11:25 - Of course I picked Bridges, but it'll be nice to see the look at each of the others

11:24 - Best Actor time...they've got something special cooked up...

11:21 - Actor, Actress, Director and Picture left...that went quick...leaves some time for acceptance speeches, I suppose

11:19 - "And if you didn't vote for Avatar you're a dirty bird!"

11:15 - Foreign Language Film now...picked A Prophet...winner is The Secret in Their Eyes...I'd heard of some late support but paid it no mind...oh well

11:08 - Shout out to Sam Raimi.  Sweet.

11:07 - Winner is Hurt Locker

11:06 - Film Editing now...pick is Hurt Locker, and if it wins, it wins the whole thing...at least that's the plan...

11:01 - Best Documentary...picked The Cove...winner is The Cove (some three minutes later)...love Fisher.

10:59 - Looks like we have 7 more awards to go...and a bit more than an hour to get it over by midnight.  I actually think they can do it, even with some unbelievably show stopping moments.

10:54 - Best Visual Effects...has to be Avatar...and the winner is...Avatar

10:52 - Winner is Up

10:50 - Damn, I loved Up!  Dancers are taking forever.

10:45 - Score...I'd lost track and thought we gave that out earlier...I picked Up...and the winner is...(Ugh - dancers)...

10:37 - The "In Memoriam"...always sad...

10:35 - Cinematography...picked Avatar...winner is...Avatar

10:30 - Please God...no more dancers!

10:26 - Best Sound Mixing - picked Hurt Locker...and it wins

10:24 - Best Sound Editing...picked Avatar...Hurt Locker wins

10:23 - Freeman...my latest impression!  Awesome!

10:22 - I do love horror...yes I do

10:18...Um...Silence of the Lambs won in 1991

10:18  - Funny bit there...thank God for it

10:11 - She looks like a Pigeon Sister. ;)  Odd Couple fans will know what I mean.

10:08 - Costume - Scary Face presents...picked Young Victoria...winner is...Young Victoria

10:06 - Love Sigourney Weaver...Best Art Direction - picked Avatar...winner is Avatar

10:02 - Ugh.  Getting late.  Gotta agree with Colin's comment below.  Hughes retrospective is the highlight so far.  I want to stay up to see Bridges get his award...I really do...can I make it?

9:59 - Supporting Actress...picked Mo'Nique...winner is Mo'Nique

9:53 - Shame we don't get Gordon Willis live at the event...he was amazing...they kind of screwed the pooch on the honorary awards this year

9:47 - 5 for 8 so far...Adapted Screenplay...picked Up in the Air...winner is Precious

9:41 - Stiller looking silly...Best make-up - pick was Star Trek...winner is Trek

9:35 - Best Live Action Short - picked The Door - winner is The New Tennants...cut him off, that sucks

9:33 - Best Documentary Short - winner is Music by Prudence...I picked The Last Truck

9:30 - Best Animated Short - pick was Logorama (which comes highly recommended by Colin) - winner is Logorama

9:24 - Did I mention how much I loved Up?  Did I?  "Squirrel!"

9:23 - Seriously, that's pretty neat.

9:22 - "We still exist!"

9:18 - Jesus I love these movies!  Hughes was great.

9:16 - Konior calls to say he likes that "the winner is" returns.  Hadn't noticed.  Oh look...it's "old man" Broderick!...and Molly Ringwold on drugs?  Ah...the John Hughes retrospective.  Sweet.

9:15 - Original Screenplay...picked Basterds...crosses fingers...winner is (do they actually send these screenplay's tho the voters?) ...Boal for Hurt Locker

9:12 - The resurrection of Downey's career has been astounding and beautiful...and Tina Fey is just beautiful...

9:06 - I have not seen District 9 yet.  I want to.  But why does it remind me of Lethal Weapon 2?

9:05 - Bobby Duval sighting!

9:03 - Best Song - should be "Weary Kind"...and the winner is...(Cotillard is hot!)...damn, I thought this was a Bridges song...shows you what I know...winner is "Weary Kind"...3 for 3 so far.

8:59 - Animated Film...pick is Up...winner is...(I loved Up...did I mention that?)...Up

8:47 - Supporting Actor - my pick is Waltz...and it is...Waltz.

8:43 - No Jack sighting yet.  Pretty good bit by the guys, but some of it was forced.  Funny enough.

8:33 - Didn't we learn that musical numbers were out some years back?  The thing is long enough.

8:15 - Look at how orange Sarah Jessica Parker is.

8:03 - I just don't get the Vera Farmiga love.  She's a movie star?

7:32 - Now is as good a time as any to mention that I'll be flipping the posting order from last year.  This time, the more recent posts will be at the top and roll backwards.  Easier to post that way.  Watching Barbara Walters right now and snoozing.  When does this thing start again?

7:11 - Allow this to be my first mention online of my excitement for the remake of Clash of the Titans.  It goes against every part of my being to want to see a remake of a beloved childhood film, but Sweet Jesus does it look good.  Release the Kraken indeed!

For now...that is all.

2010 Oscar Picks

Nothing like waiting until the last minute to pick the Oscar winners.  I suppose it has to do with procrastination, though in truth it likely helped me wait out all the arguments during the Oscar season and look at the nominees with a fresh view.  Granted, the consensus has already formed around a number of categories and for many of those, I cannot argue.  However, I have a few stubborn picks that will likely turn out wrong and a few that I simply do not know.  I have seen all of four of the various nominated films and certainly none of the crapshoot categories as usual.  But I did hit 18 out of 24 last year.  Not too bad.  I'll list my choices below and we'll see how I do when it's all said and done sometime at or after midnight tonight.

Best Picture - The Hurt Locker

Already I am changing up my original view of the race.  I had picked Avatar here from the start but the more I look at how the other awards will shake out, the more I see a lack of true love for the film.  More than that, from the start of the race I sensed a certain backlash against James Cameron that could end up hurting him.  But this year they introduced 10 films instead of the usual five and a new preferential balloting system for Best Pic.  I simply do not know what kind of effect that will have on the eventual winner, if certain voters might play games with their ballot's placing the competition lower on the ballot, or if an upset becomes easier or more difficult.  Can Basterds or Precious maybe pull out a win here?  Going with how the rest of the awards are likely to shake down, I have to go with what I think is a safe pick.  Avatar did not have any acting or screenplay nominations and will likely lose in the editing category all of which pushed me to choose Hurt Locker.

Best Actor - Jeff Bridges for Crazy Heart

Lock it down, bet on it, scream it from the rooftops and perhaps find a rug that really ties the room together.  The Dude will win an Oscar tonight.  No way he loses.  I will admit that it would be nice to see Colin Firth win an Oscar as he always does great work, but the momentum behind Bridges is simply too much for any other man to upset.

Best Actress - Sandra Bullock for The Blind Side

This one is not so set in stone, contrary to the consensus.  It is somewhat amazing that with all the nominations Meryl Streep has racked up over the years, she only has 2 Oscars to show for it and both of those prior to 1985, some 25 years ago.  However, the risk for Bullock may end up being Sidibe if Streep and Bullock voters split too evenly.  Still, I think Bullock will win this one and I am looking forward to her acceptance speech.  Her razzie win makes this even better.  Love this chick.

Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds

Waltz has walked away with this award every single time this season and I don't know why he would not win tonight.  Tarantino is the new Woody Allen for the supporting category.  I'd also like tho thank this film for thoroughly confusing my spell checker all season long.  And for teaching me how to constantly misspell Inglorious (phew, got it right that time.)  Thanks...really.  I wasn't a strong speller before, Quentin.

Best Supporting Actress - Mo'Nique for Precious

Believe it or not, Mo'Nique does not have this award nailed down.  It has nothing to do with her perceived lack of traditional campaigning or possible aloofness and more to do with the history of this category.  The winners here are often head-scratchers or downright shocking.  That said, I cannot really see another that stands out as a winner other than Mo'Nique and I can make arguments for why the other four should not win.  Can't say the same for Mo'Nique and she's won just about everything else for this role.  I'm sticking with that.

Best Director - Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker

When she won the DGA I knew she had this in the bag.  Regardless of which film wins Picture, I think this is pretty damn certain.  Frankly, Cameron is not her competition here - Tarantino is.  Basterds is his finest film since Pulp Fiction, hands down; and my 2nd favorite film of his in total.  However, I've actually seen the competition films here (Hurt Locker and Basterds) and I think Bigelow's work is superior.

Best Foreign Film - The Prophet

More than usual, I am really lost with this category this year.  I've heard good things about The White Ribbon but have not yet seen it, nor any of the other films.  The Prophet seems to have stood out as a front runner, though there has been some late support for The Secret in Their Eyes.  When you don't know, go with the front runner.

Best Original Screenplay - Quentin Tarantino for Inglourious Basterds

Here is my wild card pick for the night.  Most are choosing Mark Boal for The Hurt Locker, but I sense that Tarantino's star power might help him here.  There has also been a bit of a backlash against Hurt Locker and Boal in particular in recent weeks which may have hurt his chances.  If so, Tarantino benefits and I think pulls out a win.  You may also call this a sentimental pick for reasons stated above.

Best Adapted Screenplay - Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner for Up in the Air

I am not so certain on this choice but I do not see another that jumps out to me as much.  There was some controversy here, if I recall.  Something about an argued screenplay credit or something.  However, looking beyond that, Reitman is a rising star and this may be a reward for him after a few years putting out award nominated films.

Best Cinematography - Mauro Fiore for Avatar

I am torn here as my initial choice might be Richardson for Basterds.  It was beautiful to watch - great work.  But I think Avatar will be considered here for technical achievement alone so it will do well in those categories.

Best Art Direction - Rick Carter, Robert Stromberg & Kim Sinclair for Avatar

Again, Cameron's world trumps the other films, I'd think.  Having not seen the other entries, I cannot say who might upset.  One might start thinking sweep for Avatar at this point, but not so fast.

Best Costume Design - Sandy Powell for The Young Victoria

Period always trumps everything else in costumes, it seems and I seem to recall a campaign waged here that points to Powell.  Bright Star has been mentioned by some, but this is the consensus pick and I see no reason to stray from that.

Best Film Editing - Bob Murawski & Chris Innis for The Hurt Locker

For some time, film editing and Best Pic seem tied together, one as guide for the other.  If a Best Pic nominee is not included in this category, it likely will not win Best Picture.  Avatar is nominated here but the consensus pick to win editing is Hurt Locker.  I don't disagree with that and it informs my thinking about the rest of the slate.

Best Sound Editing - Christopher Boyes & Gwendolyn Yates Whittle for Avatar

The creativity of Avatar points to this in the sound editing category. 

Best Sound Mixing - Paul N.J. Ottoson and Ray Beckett for The Hurt Locker

Mixing all the stuff together in this film I think trumps Avatar and keeps Hurt Locker in the Best Picture race.  That said, I actually wonder if Basterds might sneak through here if the big boys cancel each other out.

Best Score - Michael Giacchino for Up

The first twenty minutes or so of this film are so beautiful that it alone qualifies it for a number of categories this year.  Much of that has to do with the tone and feel provided by the accompanying music as it was wordless.  Don't be fooled by the big names up for this because Up will win.

Best Song - "The Weary Kind" from Crazy Heart

Going against Disney and Randy Newman here which is risky.  But I think the music and role from Crazy Heart will be connected in voters minds which will help Bingham and T-Bone Burnett pick up an Oscar.

Best Make-Up - Barney Burman, Mindy Hall & Joel Harlow for Star Trek

Having not seen The Young Victoria, I admit to not being sure why it is nominated.  Perhaps it truly does have some great make up.  Did any of the voters actually see Il Divo?  Star Trek tends to win by default here, as far as I can see.  Could be totally off.

Best Visual Effects - Avatar

Not going to list all the folks here.  Nor try and argue why any other film should win this award.  If there is a lock for Avatar, it is this category.

Best Animated Feature - Up

It's nominated for Best Picture as well, so I guess this now becomes the consolation prize for animation (as if it wasn't already.)  Up may actually be the finest film of the year which is becoming a normal thing for Pixar films.

And now the crapshoot:

Best Documentary Feature - The Cove
Best Documentary Short - The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant
Best Animated Short - Logorama
Best Live Action Short - The Door

I am really out of it this year with these crapshoot picks.  Rarely if ever do I get the chance to see these films.  I wish there was a way to get them out to the general public throughout the year.  It is a shame that this is their only large exposure.  However, between thinking I know the voters taste (a dangerous plan) and reading around the 'ol internets (a much safer practice) I think these may come out on top.

Given my lack of viewing Oscar nominated films this year, I am relying on the above for much of my picks (with a little sentimentality involved, but not much - it won't take you far in Oscar picking.)  If I can hit 50% this year, I'll be happy.  More than anything, I remain extremely happy that Bridges will win an award tonight and cannot say I feel anywhere near 100% certain that Hurt Locker will win Best Picture.  You can put money on the acting and director categories.  But for the love of all that is holy, do not bet the house on picture.  The changes made this year make the category nearly unpickable.  That doesn't stop anyone though.  Certainly not me. 

Still planning on live-blogging the event tonight but cannot say it will be terribly involved or not.  I could start and get bored with it half way there or decide I am missing too much by typing, especially as the hours grow long.  But I'll give it a shot and I was able to make it through last year.  Until then, that is all.

Oscarblogging - Jeff Bridges

In the past, I've offered some thoughts on certain actors that might be up for awards during the Oscar season.  This year, more than some, calls me to look upon a certain actor's work.  Jeff Bridges has been in this business since the 1960's working with his brother Beau on his father's show, and the 70's saw his arrival in the big time scene with The Last Picture Show in 1971 bringing his first Oscar nomination. His full nomination list looks like this:

• The Last Picture Show - 1971 - Best Supporting Actor
• Thunderbolt and Lightfoot - 1974 - Best Supporting Actor
• Starman - 1984 - Best Actor
• The Contender - 2000 - Best Supporting Actor
• Crazy Heart - 2009 - Best Actor

Now, how about a list of films he was not nominated for...

• Tucker: The Man and His Dreams
• The Fabulous Baker Boys
• The Fisher King
• Fearless
• The Big Lebowski
• Seabiscuit

Not to mention Tron, King Kong, Heaven's Gate, Against All Odds, The Vanishing, Jagged Edge, White Squall, Arlington Road, The Door in the Floor...hell, Iron Man...Bridges always comes to play.  And we love him.  Every damn one of us.

But what was the competition?  In '71, Bridges was up against his costar Ben Johnson in The Last Picture Show (the eventual winner), Leonard Frey for Fiddler on the Roof, Richard Jaeckel for Sometimes a Great Notion and Roy Scheider for The French Connection.  I can't blame the choice this year.

In 1974, he was up against Fred Astaire in The Towering Inferno in what I assume is a late career consolation as well as the team from The Godfather, Part II - De Niro, Lee Strasberg and Michael V. Gazzo.  De Niro won his first Oscar this year.

1984 saw Bridges up against Sam Waterston for The Killing Fields, Albert Finney for Under the Volcano and the guys from Amadeus - Tom Hulce and F. Murray Abraham.  I cannot quibble with the winner this year as Abraham was a revelation for me as an actor.

And finally in 2000, Bridges gained another nomination after 16 long years.  He was up for The Contender as Best Supporting Actor.  He found some frankly weak competition with Joaquin Phoenix in Gladiator, Albert Finney again in Erin Brockovich, William Dafoe for Shadow of the Vampire, and the eventual winner - Benicio del Toro for Traffic.  Had I my own choice, I'd go for Dafoe.

Nine years hence, he finds himself here again and this time around he has Clooney, Firth, Freeman and Renner to deal with.  Freeman and Clooney already have one.  And as good as Firth is, he is in the same position with Renner...waiting in line behind Jeff Bridges.  It is his year.

However, he's not the first to gain five nominations and not win one.  The list is actually fairly lengthy - Richard Burton, Glenn Close, Irene Dunne, Albert Finney, Arthur Kennedy, Deborah Kerr, Paul Newman, Peter O'Toole, Al Pacino, Geraldine Page, Thelma Ritter, and Kate Winslet all received five nominations for acting awards and were denied each time.

Winslet finally won on her 6th nomination last year; Newman finally won on his 7th nomination...Geraldine Page and Al Pacino each won on their 8th nomination (though Pacino was nominated twice in his winning year.)  And no actor has ever been awarded 8 nominations without winning except for one Peter O'Toole...he did win an honorary Oscar in 2002...and then received his last acting nomination just 3 years ago.  Still doesn't have the real thing and neither do Burton, Close, Dunne, Finney, Kennedy, Kerr or Ritter.

Bridges has a slightly tough field, but he does have some things going for him, namely how beloved he seems to be within the Hollywood community, and with the rest of us as far as I know.  That should give him a leg up this year one might hope.  And he is in good company with some other actors that finally found gold on their 5th nomination - Susan Hayward, Shirley MacLaine, Jack Nicholson, Gregory Peck & Susan Sarandon.  It is not too much to assume he walks home with the gold in March and as I've already said - he damn well deserves it.  That is all.

Oscar Nominations Announced for Films of 2009

The nominations came out this morning and there were few surprises.  I'm still not used to the 10 film rule for Best Picture and I still don't think it's needed.  My customary thoughts will follow.

Best Picture

Avatar

The Blind Side

District 9

An Education

The Hurt Locker

Inglourious Basterds

Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

A Serious Man

Up

Up in the Air

 

Best Director

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

James Cameron, Avatar

Lee Daniels, Precious

Jason Reitman, Up in the Air

Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

 

Best Actor

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

George Clooney, Up in the Air

Colin Firth, A Single Man

Morgan Freeman, Invictus

Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

 

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

Helen Mirren, The Last Station

Carey Mulligan, An Education

Gabourey Sidibe, Precious

Meryl Streep, Julia & Julia

 

Best Supporting Actor

Matt Damon, Invictus

Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

Christopher Plummer, The Last Station

Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

 

Best Supporting Actress

Penelope Cruz, Nine

Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air

Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart

Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

Mo'Nique, Precious

First things first, above will be the only place all season except for my picks post that spells out the entire title for Precious.  I cannot type that every damn time. 

Second, let's look at the nominations tally for each actor - and the first thing you must think is Streep...again?  Yes, it is her 16th nomination - the most for any actor or actress ever, and she is simply stretching the record as long as she can.  Thing is, she has not won an actual Oscar since 1982's Sophie's Choice (that was her 4th nomination and 2nd win.)  It's an honor just to be nominated, right?  Well, she was nominated twice in the 70's, 6 times in the 80's, 4 times in the 90's and now 4 times in the Aughts (and for a 3rd time within the last 4 years.)  If she wins, however, she still needs another to match Katherine Hepburn's 4 Oscars.

On the flip side, her other fellow actresses are all first timers save for Helen Mirren (her 4th) and Penelope Cruz (her 3rd.)  Both Mirren and Cruz each have one win.  Neither, nor Streep, will win another this year as I think Bullock gets Best Actress and Mo'Nique gets Best Supporting.  But I'll save full picks until later.

For the men, Best Actor features two 5 time nominees in Jeff Bridges and Morgan Freeman.  Freeman has a win as Best Supporting but not for Best Actor.  Jeff Bridges has never won.  In fact, this is his first nominations in 9 years.  His very first came in 1971.  The man has had an incredible career and I for one hope he walks home with one in March. 

Clooney is another multiple nominee. This is his third acting nomination and 5th overall (not counting producing.)  He does have an acting win under his belt however, unlike Matt Damon who while he owns an Oscar, it was for screenwriting.  This is Damon's 2nd nomination some 12 years after his first.  Woody Harrelson too is back on the ballot after a break of 13 years and this is his second nomination overall.  Firth, Renner, Tucci and Waltz are seeing there first nominations.  And so too is Christopher Plummer!  He's never been nominated.  Unbelievable.  The man's first movie was in 1958.  He wasn't even nominated for The Insider, which may be his best role.

For Best Director, we see a variety.  Cameron, Tarantino and Reitman have all been nominated before.  This is each one's 2nd nomination.  For Bigelow and Daniels, it is their first.  And for Bigelow, an even larger hill is there for the climbing as a woman has never won the Best Director Oscar.  In fact, this is only the 4th time a woman has even been nominated.  And she may well win.

The awards are March 7th and I'll put up a post before hand giving my picks.  I may even live-blog the event, if I can stay awake.  I like them long, no problem.  It's that they start so late.  Of course, it's early on the West Coast.  My only desire for the evening is to see Jeff Bridges take home an Oscar.  Everything else is gravy.  That is all.

Dawson Goes In...and The Future of the Hall of Fame

First off, let's say a hearty congratulations to Andre Dawson for finally making it into the Hall of Fame.  It took him a while and he barely squeezed in this year.  While a borderline candidate, I voted for him on my mock ballot below and consider him a hall of famer.  Unfortunately, that means only one player will be inducted this year.  While that is no great harm (the Hall elected no players between 1942 and 1947) it does present a bit of a problem when you consider the backlog of players that will soon begin to build up.

First, let's consider two guys I thought for sure would make it in this year alongside the Hawk.  Bert Blyleven has toiled on the HoF ballot for years now, getting as close as ever this year with 74.2% of the vote (needing 75%.)  He missed out by only 5 votes.  Roberto Alomar, one many thought would breeze in on the first ballot) came nearly as close, only 8 votes shy of election.  There are a number of places outlining these two players and their Hall cases.  You cannot swing a dead cat without finding someone willing to argue in their favor.  I believe both belong.

Future Elections

Both will likely go into the Hall next year but let us consider that there are a number of other players inching up the list but not yet there - Jack Morris, Lee Smith, Alan Trammell, Dave Parker and Dale Murphy, not to mention two other guys that are definite hall worthy players - Tim Raines and Mark McGwire.  Finally your holdovers after their first year - Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez and Barry Larkin keep the ballot fairly large.  That's 10 players waiting for their day.  There are more on the ballot, but only these do I think have a legitimate shot at a Hall call either via the writers or the Vets committee.

In 2011, the ballot will also include a series of newly eligible players - Jeff Bagwell, Rafael Palmeiro, John Olerud, Kevin Brown, Larry Walker, Juan Gonzalez, Tino Martinez, B.J. Surhoff, Marquis Grissom, John Franco, Bret Boone, Al Leiter, Benito Santiago, Carlos Baerga, Raul Mondesi, Bobby Higginson, Wilson Alvarez, Rey Sanchez, Charles Johnson, Jose Offerman, Ugueth Urbina, Ismael Valdez, Dan Wilson, Paul Quantrill, Cal Eldred, Kirk Rueter and Steve Reed.

From that list, there are two sure fire hall of famers in Bagwell and Palmeiro (more on that below) as well as some borderline guys that might stay on the ballot for a year or more - Kevin Brown, Larry Walker, Juan Gonzalez and maybe even John Franco.  Now we are looking at 16 guys who might have a shot of election in 2011 and many of them will have both their fans and detractors.  And if you consider that Blyleven and Alomar will make it in 2011, that leaves maybe one more elected which I would think has to be Bagwell as the best player on the ballot below those two.  Maybe Morris as he's gaining some steam, but if Alomar doesn't get in on his 1st ballot, I am not sure Bagwell will either.  He is, to some, borderline.  That seems crazy to me, but there it is.

But let's say Bagwell gets in alongside Blyleven and Alomar in 2011.  That means that the following will be left on the ballot for the 2012 election:

Barry Larkin, Jack Morris, Edgar Martinez, Tim Raines, Lee Smith, Rafael Palmeiro and Mark McGwire - all players that have a legit shot of making it to 75% of the vote.  I just don't see how the others can make up the needed ground that quickly if they are new or finally if they have been toiling on the ballot for a number of years.  Only Larkin and Morris have cracked the 50% level.  Martinez will go in via the writers eventually, I'd think as will hopefully Raines.  And Smith has been inching up for years now.  Palmeiro will have to deal with the same thing as McGwire - a reckoning of how to deal with steroids in the sport and Hall.

Of course alongside those 7 guys above, the ballot opens up to another slew of players in 2012 - Edgardo Alfonzo, Pedro Astacio, David Bell, Jeromy Burnitz, Vinny Castilla, Scott Erickson, Carl Everett, Jeff Fassero, Alex S. Gonzalez, Danny Graves, Rick Helling, Dustin Hermanson, Jose Hernandez, Brian Jordan, Matt Lawton, Javy Lopez, Bill Mueller, Terry Mulholland, Jeff Nelson, Phil Nevin, Brad Radke, Joe Randa, Tim Salmon, Ruben Sierra, Jose Vizcaino, Bernie Williams and Eric Young.

Thankfully for the holdovers, only Bernie Williams really merits discussion for the Hall (though I am terribly partial to Terry Mulholland - not a hall of famer, but a damn fine and reliable pitcher for many, many years.)  So Hall voters will have at least 8 worthy candidates in 2012.  If Jack Morris makes it in via the writers, this is the year he'll need to make it.  He'll only have 2 more years on the ballot and the 2013 and 2014 classes are full of huge names, many of which may warrant 1st ballot election.  For someone like Dale Murphy, a guy I think belongs in the Hall, the time is even more slim.  His last year on the ballot is 2013.  He cannot get past the logjam above for 2012 and for 2013...well, let's see who comes up for eligibility:

Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Craig Biggio, Curt Schilling, Sammy Sosa, Mike Piazza, Kenny Lofton, David Wells, Julio Franco, Shawn Green, Steve Finley, Roberto Hernandez, Jeff Cirillo, Jose Valentin, Reggie Sanders, Jeff Conine, Jose Mesa, Royce Clayton, Bob Wickman, Ryan Klesko, Aaron Sele, Woody Williams, Rondell White, Mike Lieberthal, Tony Batista, Mike Stanton, Sandy Alomar Jr., Damian Miller and Todd Walker.

Now that's a list - Bonds, Clemens, Biggio, Schilling, Sosa, Piazza and perhaps even Lofton and Julio Franco have a legit shot of gaining some Hall support.  Bonds and Clemens may get slotted into that same holding tank filled with McGwire, Palmeiro and maybe Kevin Brown (Juan Gonzalez will have fallen off the ballot.)  Schilling, Sosa and perhaps even Piazza may not get full support as many consider them borderline (though I don't know how you say that about Mike Piazza.)  But Biggio is legit and may be the only man to get elected this year, even with whatever holdovers from previous years remain on the ballot.

Let's assume Larkin and Morris get enough support in 2012 to make it in.  That would leave possible elections of Biggio, Edgar Martinez, Tim Raines and Lee Smith in 2013 so maybe one of those last three joins Biggio in election.  Whoever does not will have zero shot in 2014.  Once again, the class is stacked.  Dale Murphy will fall off the ballot but it will add the following:

Moises Alou, Armando Benitez, Sean Casey, Jose Cruz Jr., Ray Durham, Damion Easley, Jim Edmonds, Keith Foulke, Eric Gagne, Tom Glavine, Luis Gonzalez, Mark Grudzielanek, Scott Hatteberg, Jacque Jones, Todd Jones, Jeff Kent, Jon Lieber, Esteban Loaiza, Paul Lo Duca, Greg Maddux, Matt Morris, Mike Mussina, Trot Nixon, Hideo Nomo, Jay Payton, Kenny Rogers, Richie Sexson, J.T. Snow, Shannon Stewart, Frank Thomas, Mike Timlin, Steve Trachsel and Jose Vidro.

Of the names, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux and Frank Thomas are sure fire hall of famers.  Jim Edmonds, Luis Gonzalez (believe it or not), Jeff Kent and Mike Mussina all can make a legitimate case for their induction as well.  The year after that, Randy Johnson and John Smoltz (assuming he does not find a job in 2010) among others will enter the ballot.  It's not until 2016 that some holdovers might have a shot.  Trammell is on the ballot until 2016.  Lee Smith until 2017.  McGwire (assuming he doesn't pinch hit this year) is on until 2021 and Raines until 2022.  There will be retirements as well so it is difficult to know who else will join them but as you can see, as the stars retire, the ballot fills up.  By my count, between now and 2014, 15 players have the resume to be sure fire members of the Hall.  Another 18 or so guys have a decent case.  That is stacked.

It does make me question my "large hall" outlook but I remain positive that is should be this way. It's not the Hall of the Very, Very Best.  It is the Hall of Fame and as such guys like Joe Jackson, Pete Rose, Ron Santo, Mark McGwire and Dale Murphy all belong.  They were all part of the fame of baseball, all of them beloved players and all of them responsible for great baseball memories in fans and not just some but a lot.  Some have other issues that hurt their case and some have troublesome numbers that make it hard to look past.  There is the big problem I see for the Hall.

Sabermetrics vs. Sight

This year more than ever there seemed to be a huge argument between old school baseball writers/Hall voters and the sabermetric crowd.  It was in full force with Andre Dawson and certainly has been a big factor in both Blyleven's inching up the ballot as well as his continued existence outside the Hall.  It was certainly there last year with Jim Rice and will remain as voters and fans continue to consider Jack Morris, among others.  Bagwell may run into this as Fred McGriff definitely does (in fact, as guys like Bagwell, Thomas and Palmeiro enter the ballot McGriff's case gets harder and harder.)

It seems that one must be either/or on this, though I don't quite understand that.  Either you want to judge every player using advanced stats or you only want to look at RBI and HR, regardless of what their OPS tells us.  I really don't see how these two schools of thought cannot co-exist.  All stats do is give us a better understanding of a season or career.  It does not tell the whole story and often can be selected to tell only the best story (see Boras, Scott.)  We've all heard the phrase "lies, damn lies and statistics."  However that does not mean they should not be weighed heavily.  In the case of McGriff (or Rice, or Dawson, etc.) there might not be great rate stats for him, but he did end up with 493 home runs and many of those before the current steroid era.  He hit 20 or more home runs for 15 out of 16 years, missing one year by hitting only 19.  He was in the discussion in the MVP voting for 6 different seasons, even though he never won it.  But anybody at the time of his first decade would have loved to have him on their team.  He was a consistent and healthy 1st baseman who while no wizard with the glove was dependable to be sure.  Is there a place in the Hall for that type of player?  Had he hit just 7 more HR, would we be having this discussion?

Blyleven is instructive here as the major knock many give against his Hall of Fame case is that he was never considered the best pitcher of his day (no Cy Youngs) and only just dependable.  I guess it begs the question - would you rather have Derek Lowe warts and all or Ben Sheets warts and all?  You know when Sheets actually pitches, he'll blow Lowe out of the water, but he's injured so much, his worth drops considerably.  On the other hand, Lowe will give you league average or better work while being a workhorse year in and year out making every start and pitching into the 7th or 8th at least.  So who is the better pitcher over the long term, which is what the Hall is considering?  Blyleven might not have been the flashiest pitcher ever but he did rack up over 3,700 strike outs which puts him at 5th all time.  He was 3rd when he retired and only gave up the spot for a couple of guys named Clemens and Johnson.  Blyleven's 60 shutouts places him in the top 10 all time.  Every eligible player with 50 or more is in the Hall.  Like McGriff, should he be penalized because he did not win those last 13 games?  The sabermetrics crowd does not think so and he has them to thank for his rise on the ballot.  The writers/voters clearly do not.  To them, their memory is more important (or rather, the only thing that is important.)  For me and many others out there, both are instructive and between the two build a solid case for his enshrinement.

I just don't see why one cannot consider both the advanced stats look at a player while also recalling his fame at the time he played.  Dale Murphy is a curious case as he seems to have both working for him and yet remains outside looking in.  His problem was longevity.  But tell me if he had died somehow in 1988 - would we be having this discussion?  Had Kirby Puckett continued to play and produced another 5 or 8 sub-par seasons, would he have been elected to the Hall?  At Murphy's peak, he was considered one of the very best (maybe only Mike Schmidt was more beloved in the NL during this time.)  But he tailed off so quickly and didn't finish his counting stats so we watch him linger on the ballot for 15 years, falling off as I said after the 2013 vote.  He just doesn't have the momentum to counter the bums rush of worthy (and better) candidates that will soon fill up the ballot.

Steroids

Finally, we must look at the effect of the steroid issue effecting the voting.  McGwire has remained pretty solid at about 20% of the vote since he got on the ballot.  So far he has been the only one treated this way.  However Rafael Palmeiro joins him on the 2011 ballot and then Bonds, Clemens and Sosa join them in 2013.  These are just the pinnacle players and not all effected (recall that David Segui admitted his usage and still got 1 vote in this last HoF election.)  In all, I count somewhere between 19 and 20 guys on the next four ballots that have some suspicion or evidence of steroid usage.

When Bud Selig is elected to the Hall (and you know he will be) what will the line be then?  Or will they keep him out for the same reason they do for McGwire?  When Bonds and Clemens debut, will the voters be forced to admit that regardless of the use, the players still put up Hall worthy numbers?  Without the drugs, neither man would wait and may even be unanimous picks (which has never occurred in Hall voting.)  Palmeiro and Sosa (and maybe McGwire) are cases where one might ask "Would they have built Hall stats without the roids?"  It is a fair question but it is only an exercise.  The fact remains, Palmeiro's 3,000 hits, 500 HR and 1,800 RBI would usher any other man right into the Hall.

I don't know the answer here any more than I do on the above issues.  I am not a Hall of Fame voter.  And considering that Andre Dawson and Jim Rice are in the Hall while "Shoeless Joe" Jackson and Pete "Charlie Hustle" Rose remain out, one might consider the Hall to be a joke anyway.  Let us recall that the Hall itself is located in Cooperstown, New York to commemorate a faulty history - supposedly this was the site of the first baseball game thanks to Abner Doubleday, but the research has shown a different beginning.  Baseball, much like life, lends itself to selective memory and subjective thinking.  And thus it is in Hall voting (as well as Hall arguments.)  If anything, I hope that the Hall can at least vote in these great players after they are gone.  But it would be preferable to do so before that day.  I want to see Bond's speech.  He was my favorite player, after all.  At least Maddux is clean.  He could sail in with more votes than Nolan Ryan, which would be sweet.  In fact, I found out a neat fact about Mad Dog as I was doing research - he is 4th all time in games started only behind Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton and Cy Young.  He was the best folks, he was the best (said in the voice of Skip Cary, himself a possible Ford Frick award winner this year.)  That is all.